Would a Civil war in the Habsburg Empire start WWI?

So I have the following scenario in mind:

Franz Ferdinand survives Sarajevo - not that hard to do - and lives to take the throne. Franz Joseph dies on scedul. The Emperor and Hungaries relationship is rapidly deteroitating till it completly breaks down in about mid 1917. Reasons could be many from FF refusing to get himself crowned to Ausgleich problems etc. Franz Ferdinand decides to use the army. Most here agree that this would be a fairly simple kuk victory over Honved and after this FF could start to really reform the Empire.

However how would the rest of the world react to this? If i only take the time that the fighting lasts it takes out the kuk for a good time and after that a big part of Hungary needs to be occupied.

I assume WWI hasnt broken out before this. Russia should be considerably stronger at this point. IRC Germany and Brittain was about to conclude an agreement about the Baghdad railway in 1914 so lets say they managed to arrange that. This would help british-german relations if Gerany doesnt want to pass a new naval build law once again increasing its navy. Seeing how the social democrats were the strongest in the reichtag in 1914 I assume Germany didnt manage that.

So three years passed compared to OTL before the war. Germany isnt considerably stronger as it had to deal mostly with inside politics because of the soc dems. Austria is in a civil war and isnt really able to contibute to a big war at the moment. I dont know enough about France to really guess. Russia is much stronger. We also have to consider Serbia, which had three years to really integrate Macedonia and was pretty sure of himself - Im not entirely sure if they dont attack Austria at this point.

However do you think France would use this opportunity to try to get back Alsaice? How would Russia react? Would Russia attach Austria-Hungary? Would they support a serb attach on Austria only stepping in if Austria wins? That way they might get away without facing Germany?

Any other idea what may happen in the scenario above?
 
I doubt there would be a civil war at all. Franz Ferdinand was quite unpopular among all of the Monarchy, and his actions wouldn't be supported by enough to let him deal with Hungary, let alone reforming the Monarchy. Even if he would be able gather enough support to do so, the foreign political realities as you mentioned (Russia, Serbia) would force him to withdraw. If he is really stubborn and tries to implement his reforms, that would be the end of the Habsburg Empire.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I doubt there would be a civil war at all. Franz Ferdinand was quite unpopular among all of the Monarchy, and his actions wouldn't be supported by enough to let him deal with Hungary, let alone reforming the Monarchy. Even if he would be able gather enough support to do so, the foreign political realities as you mentioned (Russia, Serbia) would force him to withdraw. If he is really stubborn and tries to implement his reforms, that would be the end of the Habsburg Empire.
So, FF would swallow his pride and agree to have the Ausgleich be renegotiated on Hungarian terms in 1917 in order to avoid a war with Russia and Serbia?
 
Modern European empires in peacetime were not going to collapse without outside interference, not even the Ottomans, let alone Austria-Hungary or Russia.
In OTL it took years of total war, millions of casualties and a total collapse of imperial internal economy and state apparatus before the commoners were ready even seriously consider separation from the Hapsburg rule.
The way people treat Austria-Hungary as a house of cards that would inevitably collapse in just a few years with or without WW1 is frankly a bit annoying.
 
There are many ways it could go; much depends on the timeline and the exact parameters of the crisis / civil war.

If things escalate to the point of a total breakdown between Vienna and Budapest, it's quite possible that one (or more) of the Habsburg empire's fringe territories has a minor revolution, declares independence, and asks for the protection of the united Great Powers and/or friendly neighbors. This is most likely to happen with the Serbs of Bosnia, but it could also happen with the Czechs, or some other party.

Now, back in the first half of 1914, Russia was wary and careful towards A-H; Serbia was straight up terrified of it; and Romania and Italy were A-H's allies (if only in name). By 1917 at least 3 of those 4 things will change, so the separatist region(s) should have no trouble finding allies. This is one way the Habsburg civil war can develop into a regional war. And from there, it's easy to imagine how the regional war might explode into a world war between the alliance systems. OTOH, it's also fairly easy to imagine how it might not explode into a greater war.

Alternately, Hungary could also ask for protection and Great Power arbitration of its dispute with Vienna. But (with the right timing, anyway, which is tricky to nail down), I can see that developing into an actual Great Power conference, that rubs FF's nose in his mess without totally dismantling the Habsburg empire.

Germany's fondness for Dualism is a big obstacle to war. Berlin will be pissed off at Franz Ferdinand for attacking Dualism and triggering all this crap, and what support they are willing to give "Franz II"'s regime will be reluctant, limited and conditional. I can see Germany going along with a conference of some kind and steering it towards its own interests rather than backing Vienna to the hilt. And - if things escalate past a certain point - I can imagine Germany intervening to secure its own gains rather than trying to prop up FF's hollow shell of a regime.
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
If things escalate to the point of a total breakdown between Vienna and Budapest, it's quite possible that one (or more) of the Habsburg empire's fringe territories has a minor revolution, declares independence, and asks for the protection of the united Great Powers and/or friendly neighbors. This is most likely to happen with the Serbs of Bosnia, but it could also happen with the Czechs, or some other party.

Might it be possible that bits of the Habsburg empire get sliced off -- my thoughts would be some portion of Transylvania and some portion of Bosnia -- but the whole thing manage to get negotiated through some level of settlement?

Additionally, Kaiser Wilhelm was fond of Franz II, and that may influence German behavior, if only in the sort of way where Wilhelm makes some bold public pronouncement that may undermine the Foreign Ministry's plans, leaving everyone scrambling a bit.

All of that seems to leave the stage ready and set for a broader war, still, but no more than 1905, 1908, or 1911 had -- so perhaps the can gets kicked just a bit farther down the road and it ends up being the 1920s that Europe explodes into a World War.
 
Might it be possible that bits of the Habsburg empire get sliced off -- my thoughts would be some portion of Transylvania and some portion of Bosnia -- but the whole thing manage to get negotiated through some level of settlement?

Additionally, Kaiser Wilhelm was fond of Franz II, and that may influence German behavior, if only in the sort of way where Wilhelm makes some bold public pronouncement that may undermine the Foreign Ministry's plans, leaving everyone scrambling a bit.

All of that seems to leave the stage ready and set for a broader war, still, but no more than 1905, 1908, or 1911 had -- so perhaps the can gets kicked just a bit farther down the road and it ends up being the 1920s that Europe explodes into a World War.

I'd guess it's possible.

Kaiser Wilhelm did have a fairly good personal relationship with Franz Ferdinand; OTOH, in their private communication he consistently disagreed with (some of) Franz's ideas and tried to convince him that Dualism is actually pretty cool, Istvan Tisza is a great statesman, and so on. So who knows.
 
In the event of anarchy in the Hapsburg Empire, the neighbors would pounce on it- Serbia for Bosnia, Romania transylvania, Russia for Galicia and perhaps Bohemia, Italy for the Tyrol.

There would be no world war because without the Austrians, the Germans could not hope to resist. They would be stuck with getting the German lands. Germany would be the big loser as its Great power status would be over and Russia would dominate Europe.

The scenario is unlikely- the Hapsburgs are likely to survive without an outside shock. The one scenario would by a Magyr-German revolt against some power sharing arrangement.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
There's no such thing as renegotiation of Ausgleich, it never happened.
OK. However, Hungary can still try seceding from Austria-Hungary if Franz Ferdinand is perceived to be threatening its interests, no?

I'd guess it's possible.

Kaiser Wilhelm did have a fairly good personal relationship with Franz Ferdinand; OTOH, in their private communication he consistently disagreed with (some of) Franz's ideas and tried to convince him that Dualism is actually pretty cool, Istvan Tisza is a great statesman, and so on. So who knows.

Can't Franz Ferdinand make an argument along these lines to Kaiser Wilhelm II, though?: My desired reforms in Austria-Hungary are meant to make Austria-Hungary a great power. Indeed, my desired reforms are the Austro-Hungarian equivalent of Germany's naval expansion (which you championed).
 
I doubt there would be a civil war at all. Franz Ferdinand was quite unpopular among all of the Monarchy, and his actions wouldn't be supported by enough to let him deal with Hungary, let alone reforming the Monarchy. Even if he would be able gather enough support to do so, the foreign political realities as you mentioned (Russia, Serbia) would force him to withdraw. If he is really stubborn and tries to implement his reforms, that would be the end of the Habsburg Empire.
Russia isn't going to force Franz to stand down, Franz wanted to establish a detente with them, and the Russians looked forwards to using him a lever to force Germany and Austria-Hungary apart (Tisza was counting hard on German support for continued dualism, and as noted by others, that's what Germany wanted). If a civil war breaks out Russia's going to be swapping small, regicidal, and ever more and more pro German Serbia for big, traditionalist, and dependant Austria.

If the rest of the Central Powers decide it's time to cannibalize the sick man on the Danube, you most certainly have a general European war, as the Entente isn't about to let Germany walk off with the "German" regions of Austria.
 
Can't Franz Ferdinand make an argument along these lines to Kaiser Wilhelm II, though?: My desired reforms in Austria-Hungary are meant to make Austria-Hungary a great power. Indeed, my desired reforms are the Austro-Hungarian equivalent of Germany's naval expansion (which you championed).

Dunno...I don't think that would be a very convincing argument, even on a calm day - let alone if Franz is making it in the middle of a huge crisis of his own making.
FF did make some similar, if not identical, arguments in his communications with the Kaiser; but Wilhelm was not convinced.
 
Top