Would 70s Inflation/Economic Malaise Have Been Different With a Humphrey Win?

I'm doing a SW game, The Onward March of Progress (Link to most recent iteration: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=377619) where Humphrey wins by landslides in the 1968 and 1972 elections. Since I don't want to just replicate the OTL economy or assume that everything will be wonderful with a Democrat at the helm, how would 1970s inflation and general economic malaise have been different under a two-term Humphrey presidency with no oil embargo?
 
I don't think you're going to avoid bad economic conditions in the 1970s. They might not be as bad without Nixon, but it's still going to be hard to make the '70s a good decade economically, and would require a much earlier POD than November 1968. Heck, without Nixon fiddling with the economy for the sake of his re election, kicking all the economic problems to his second term, you may see the early 70s fair worse economically, which means a President Rockefeller or President Reagan is elected in 1972.

I guess Humphrey's choice for the FED could make a difference, but not much of one.
 
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Only One Way

The only way Humphrey could've avoided or postponed much of the economic malaise of the 70s would be if he succeeded in getting Israel to accept Anwar Sadat's peace offer in February 1971 and thereby prevent the Yom Kippur War from occurring. Former Israeli Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami wrote in his book, Scars of War, Wounds of Peace: The Israeli–Arab Tragedy, that Sadat offered Israel a peace deal in February 1971 that was very similar to the one eventually signed at Camp David in 1978. The reasons it fell through are complicated with plenty of blame to go around between Nixon, Sadat, and Meir. That being said, Ben-Ami said the principle cause was that Meir didn't see Sadat's offer as sincere given how close he was to Nasser.

Since Humphrey played a key role in helping Carter secure the 1978 Camp David Accords and had a very good relationship with Golda Meir and the American Jewish community, I think Humphrey could've succeeded in convincing Meir to agree to Sadat's offer. In other words, given Humphrey's record as one of Congress' strongest supporters of Israel, this could've possibly been his "Nixon Goes to China" moment if he'd been President.
 
The poster above argued that the economic malaise of the 1970s could have been avoided if there was no Yom Kippur War. While this is true, there is still the problem. Inflation was around 4 % in October 1968 partly due to the combine spending because of Vietnam and the Great Society era domestic programs

Assuming the POD to be a peace accord in 1968-1969, then it is probable that the stimulus of the Vietnam war would ease, though a Humphrey administration would;d probably continue aid to Vietnam and high domestic spending. OTL there was a period of fiscal tightening in 1969-1970 combined with monetary tightening which produced a deflationary recession, (The Boeing 2707 and NASA were notable victims of this move). A president Humphrey would be unwilling to make such cuts to domestic spending, especially towards something which Scoop Jackson so heavily supported. He is likely to try and increase spending in areas, especially if he achieves Universal Health Care during his first term. Hubert Humphrey was committed to full employment and very much against any form of Wage and Price controls, which the unions very much opposed. As such inflation probably increases during his first term.

This raises the prospect of whether or not he closes the Gold Window. I suspect he may have done so for it would have been impossible to maintain due to the United States increasingly burdens foreign deficits and the way the West Germany had already devalued their currency. Again without a Vietnam war, Humphrey may try to put this off through tax increases, spending cuts or a program of monetary tightening.

As a result a First term Humphrey administration would probably be similar to that of Nixon OTL. Even if there was no middle east conflict to push up oil prices, the economy would still be in a dire state due to high inflation, which would mean a probable rise in unemployment during Humphrey's second term.
 
The modest amount I've read, you need some inflation kind of like oxygen for the economy.

The real poison is deflation. In fact, you'd accept relatively high inflation in order to avoid this poison.
 
I've also read that 1975 was about when the number of college graduates in the United States began to exceed the number of jobs for college graduates.

And more colorfully, Thomas Hine in his book The Great Funk about the 1970s wrote that when the older members of the Baby Boom generation came of age, they were like the first people in line at a buffet. And then when their younger sisters and brothers came of age, things weren't that great. There was still economic opportunity. And it's always been a numbers game, but let's just say more of a numbers game than usual.
 
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