Worst Possible Outcome for ARW?

So, what is it? The only rule is it has got to be miserable for both sides. America can still win, but so can Britain.

Annndddd... begin! :)
 
Any outcome that will give the French a real stake in events on the continent. It would probably mean a longer war on the ground, because the British would fight it harder. With that, you'd have even worse animosities with the Patriots tarred with the French brush and the Loyalists drawing more neutrals because "look what these fools made happen".

It also means more direct French meddling in the fledgling state(s). Maybe even a failed compromise, with acrimonious fallings-out between the states over allegations of French and British bribery. Say the French have a significant presence in Louisiana, they would be most interested in the Southern states. The British could cultivate Francophobia, associatwed with slavery and absolutism, in the north. A clean split, or even better, a complicated one between a French ambit, British-aligned states and a core of "pox on both their houses" rebels. Meddling will continue forever. And every time Britain and France go to war, so do the states, until the British win and North America is reduced to a big, but largely useless British landmass and smallish, resentful, land-hungry client states. Cue the next conflict over the evil Brits hogging all that manifest destiny.
 
Considering the history of Natives, maybe french gains would be a plus on that side. Considering the past history and probably more tenuous links on the american colonies, maybe at least the natives would have a better deal; than OTL.
 
Considering the history of Natives, maybe french gains would be a plus on that side. Considering the past history and probably more tenuous links on the american colonies, maybe at least the natives would have a better deal; than OTL.

I'm not sure that would last. Assuming the French still lose the following war(s), they'll only stick around long enough to bollox up the nascent USA, thereafter abandoning their erstwhile native allies to the tender mercies of land-hungry settlers. If they manage to hang on, they'll end up facing much the same problem the English did - armed white settlers wanting the land that natives had title to. We know how that story ends.

Still, a disunited government might be good for the larger and more modernity-compatible native nations. The whites can only take so many liberties if there's no cavalry to call.
 
Actually, Washington was long opposed to an invasion of Canada with the French for precisely that reason; once the French come back, getting them to leave would be a mess.
 
I'm thinking that the US loses the war, but is a constant thorn in the side of the British rising up every 10-15 years. Have the British try and clamp down harder and harder making the rebellions worse. By the time the British give up the US is to fragmented and devastated to build up leading into a Balkan situation with the US states
 
I proposed a fairly dystopian timeline once where the Revolution was squelched early on and the combined economic power of mainland slavers (once "King Cotton" got going) and the Caribbean sugar lobby squashed all opposition to emancipation, complete with Tudor-style mutilatory punishments for abolitionists (tongues getting torn out and stuff). Thande said that it was the defeat in the Revolution that spurred the soul-searching that led to OTL's abolitionist movement in Britain.

(I don't know if the Crown rewarded loyalists with representation or not while denying it to the rebellious areas or if Slave Power was economic and social rather than actual voting.)

The British Empire turns into this monstrous North Atlantic analogue to the ugliest aspects of the Confederacy, complete with whole regions of Africa being depopulated to feed the plantations. The only "hope spots" in TTL were the free statelets established by Patriot die-hards beyond the 13 coastal colonies.

Some flaws:

1. If the Proclamation of 1763 line holds, much of the "Black Belt" where slave-driven agriculture ruled is going to go unsettled, at least for longer than OTL. No King Cotton.

2. Cook said the sugar barons were extremely powerful and failed anyway. The continental slavers wouldn't have been enough to turn the tide.
 
So, what is it? The only rule is it has got to be miserable for both sides. America can still win, but so can Britain.

Annndddd... begin! :)

New England falls quickly but the Southern slave-owning states hold out longer, with the slaveholders primarily leading the independence movement. When the British finally put down the rebellion, they will harshly punish the slaveholders, like banning slavery throughout their empire. The slaveholders will continue to conduct guerilla warfare and be a thorn throughout the empire...
 
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