Ewww....
Its driven in a large part by consumer demand in the US. Raise that, increase the cash flow = incentives, & the sky is the limit. Lest say some incompetent blowhard becomes President, who disrupts the LE agencies efforts, and not only eliminates any Federal funds for treatment programs but disrupts state and locally funded treatment programs. Use expands and the Mexican Narcos follow the money, moving across the border while US LE is falling into chaos.
Its driven in a large part by consumer demand in the US. Raise that, increase the cash flow = incentives, & the sky is the limit. Lest say some incompetent blowhard becomes President, who disrupts the LE agencies efforts, and not only eliminates any Federal funds for treatment programs but disrupts state and locally funded treatment programs. Use expands and the Mexican Narcos follow the money, moving across the border while US LE is falling into chaos.
So have Trump win in 2000 then, have him send troops into Mexico to solve that problem and build a wall, finally have Mexico and several Central American governments fall because the Drug Cartels and US interventions have destabilized them.
There have been people ignorant or crazy enough to suggest invading Mexico again. I remember a rant about the benefits of the US annexing Baja California back in the mid 1970s. The individual somehow thought this would banish the bogyman of 'all those Mexicans' and "that dope". I'll leave folks to draw their own conclusions about that one.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
My personal worst case scenario, considering how much the cartels get involved in local politics (In the classical "machine/personal politics" sense and providing an alternative network of services/support for their supports like the mob and oligarchs did in immediate post-Soviet Russia) is that one Cartel builds up enough wealth and power to make a bid for federal office within Mexico and succeed. Somehow, he gets the population to back him and openly calls on the campaigning trail for a serious crackdown on drug activity in the country (Well... his own operations would be conveniently overlooked. Use the state to purge the competitoin) and succeeds, at which point the other cartels band jointly start violent resistance/rural terror to insure their own survival. Spirals out of control into a low-level civil war like some parts of Africa, with drug money and production being encouraged to fund the militas needed to gurantee security.
Hardliners in the Whitehouse and Congress double down in the war on drugs. Drug enforcement causes the neglect of investigating other crime, the incarceration numbers double and sentences are all to the maximum. LE agents under pressure to perform gain convictions on anyone they can.
The citizens are terrified, losing faith in LE, and many local leaders cause their LE to cease cooperation with national LE. After near a decade of this the costs of over the top incarceration are unsustainable, LE is collapsing nation wide, with dismal morale, and quality personnel leaving. And the anti drug fanatics won't admit failure and resist letting up.
The citizens are terrified, losing faith in LE, and many local leaders cause their LE to cease cooperation with national LE. After near a decade of this the costs of over the top incarceration are unsustainable, LE is collapsing nation wide, with dismal morale, and quality personnel leaving. And the anti drug fanatics won't admit failure and resist letting up.
A world in which the Soviet Union still exist could see the KGB use the Cartel's as proxies, perhaps arming them for a border campaign of guerrilla warfare against American military and aw enforcement.
The worst case could happen fairly easily, I'm afraid. NBC weapons of some sort used on a rival cartel would get things going out of control. Dirty weapons would be a bit much, but the cartels certainly could whip up some gas for a rival, or to take out a particularly troublesome police station.
Hard to imagine such a thing without getting into some real shitty grim-dark stuff, but I think the easiest is for PAN to (somehow) win in 2012 and to continue the Mexican War on Drugs with gusto, decapitating the cartels and making them even more unmanageable.
History Learner
Banned
Polling back in the 1990s found large majorities of Mexicans in favor of being annexed, for what it's worth.
That may be. Tho it's still crazy to think the drug problem, or economic & demographic questions be resolved by a simplistic border change.
Have U.S. LEOs get involved in a massive battle with machine guns on the American side of the border, like in Sicario.
You're basically talking a TL where the U.S invades and bogs itself down in the entire bloody affair. Jarheads vs. Zetas. Another Quagmire with Beheadings. Oh what a glorious crapfuck that would be.
Nobody's done this dystopian timeline yet?
Would a cruise missile be the best option for lobbing a "tactical" warhead into the mountains of Guerrero?
Nobody's done this dystopian timeline yet?
Would a cruise missile be the best option for lobbing a "tactical" warhead into the mountains of Guerrero?
Take a combo platter...
Have Vicente Fox's election be questionable/widely viewed as tainted.
Ditto for GWBush (or, rather, more so than OTL).
107th congress repeals the Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act in 2001 rather than letting it expire in 2004. Weapons smuggling into Mexico picks up earlier.
The early 2000s recession hits harder.
The 2001 Zapatista march on the capital turns into a disaster. Maybe (probably) it's a stretch, but some sort of, possibly accidental, bloody incident a la a much worse Acteal Massacre, convinces the EZLN to take up arms again, and this time more seriously/hard core.
Toss in the above suggestion of military aid from Russia.
Tie in 9/11 with Mexico. Rather than rumors, an actual AQ training camps/operational bases are found in Mexico. Especially if a broader attack happens, such as the proposed LA Liberty Tower attack.
To make it worse, have AQ use a "dirty bomb" in the 9/11 attacks. The material traces back to the camps in Mexico.
With all that boiling away, things can quickly get out of hand. US ends up fighting insurgencies in Afghanistan, Iraq, AND Mexico.
Have Vicente Fox's election be questionable/widely viewed as tainted.
Ditto for GWBush (or, rather, more so than OTL).
107th congress repeals the Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act in 2001 rather than letting it expire in 2004. Weapons smuggling into Mexico picks up earlier.
The early 2000s recession hits harder.
The 2001 Zapatista march on the capital turns into a disaster. Maybe (probably) it's a stretch, but some sort of, possibly accidental, bloody incident a la a much worse Acteal Massacre, convinces the EZLN to take up arms again, and this time more seriously/hard core.
Toss in the above suggestion of military aid from Russia.
Tie in 9/11 with Mexico. Rather than rumors, an actual AQ training camps/operational bases are found in Mexico. Especially if a broader attack happens, such as the proposed LA Liberty Tower attack.
To make it worse, have AQ use a "dirty bomb" in the 9/11 attacks. The material traces back to the camps in Mexico.
With all that boiling away, things can quickly get out of hand. US ends up fighting insurgencies in Afghanistan, Iraq, AND Mexico.
Jarheads vs Zetas sounds like a tabletop game or a book title. Might have to use it in then future...