Worst possible Chernoybl?

Hi all! My question is simple, how bad could Chernobyl realistically get? I heard on one old BBC programme that it could theoretically have produced an explosion that would render 300 square kilometres irradiated (or something like that). But how bad could the disaster itself have been, what's the maximum radiation that could have been kicked out, and how far could the radiation cloud have spread and what damage would it do further out?

I'm not overly interested in the political consequences, unless Soviet mishandling makes a bigger disaster ( :p ) but feel free to speculate on the global response if you like!
 
My guess for a scenario like that, is that the cloud would be far bigger than it was in OTL.

I think reaching into Central Europe, hitting East Germany, Czechoslovakia and parts of West Germany and the Low Lands.

Of course, I don't know THAT much of that history, but I guess these regions would be most hit by the cloud. The same with Belarus and the parts at the Baltic.
 
Well, unless the Soviets were foolish enough to run the test on ALL the reactors. OTL Chernobyl was about the worse that could practically happen. I mean full core meltdown with an explosion is the worst case scenario for a nuclear powerplant. I don't believe a full scale nuclear explosion is possible, as the fission material is too contaminated for that, plus there are at least remnants of moderating materials (graphite and such) to attenuate the neutron flux.

You can have a cloud spreading, but the Soviets were not about to allow this and sacrificed thousands of soldiers to prevent this. Unless there is a large scale brakedown of discipline in the Red Army and other first responders (fire department from the nearby city /Pripyet IIRC/ and the personell from the plant itself) there is no possibility of anything going worse than it actually did.
 
They came bloody close to a worst case scenario. As the core burned it also melted and started to go through the floor. Problem was that the level below was full of water, which had been pumped in by well-meaning but in the end foolish operators at the plant in an effort to the put the fire out. If the hot core had met the cold water then there might have been a hydothermal explosion which would have vapourised the other reactors and led to a huge area being contaminated. They got around it by pumping the water out. The men who went in to arrange it died of massive radiation poisoning. :(
 
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They came bloody close to a worst case scenario. As the core burned it also melted and started to go through the floor. Problem was that the level below was full of water, which had been pumped in by well-meaning but in the end foolish operators at the plant in an effort to the put the fire out. If the hot core had met the cold water then there might have been a hydothermal explosion which would have vapourised the other reactors and led to a huge area being contaminated. They got around it by pumping the water out. The men who went in to arrange it died of massive radiation poisoning. :(

They died to prevent hundreds of thousands, if not more deaths from occurring.

I would venture to guess that every single one of them was aware of that when they went in, men well versed in nuclear physics generally are.

Their sacrifice is to be commended, not mourned.
 

Rex Mundi

Banned
They died to prevent hundreds of thousands, if not more deaths from occurring.

I would venture to guess that every single one of them was aware of that when they went in, men well versed in nuclear physics generally are.

Their sacrifice is to be commended, not mourned.

The two are not mutually exclusive. Imagine telling one of their wives that she's failing to commend her husband's sacrifice because she's mourning him.
 
While I can think of few scenarios worse than nuclear fuel burning in the open air, it could absolutely have been worse. Even without talking about some thermal explosion, had the emergency workers been held to stringent and cautious safety standards which could slow their work, the core might have been exposed even longer thereby releasing even more material.

It was very lucky that the cloud of contamination seemed to blow in such a way that it didn't really hit any major city directly. Kiev for example, is not that far south of the plant yet received quite low amounts of fallout. Look at where the contamination was heaviest and it is clear that there were several large cities lucky that could have suffered substantial fallout and might have even required evacuation, especially in Kiev.

I will say that I have my doubts that hundreds of thousands would die in any realistic scenario, at least if we are talking about deaths from acute radiation sickness. As for cancer, well that's hard to say.
 
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