Worst outcome for South Africa

Mandela dies in prison, radical elements take control of the ANC. A military coup in the late '80s or early '90s, perhaps with a civilian hardliner (such as Botha's preferred successor) as figurehead President and all-out racial war erupts. Maybe with the SADF disintegrating and forming militias (except in this case with First World weaponry and training) like the Lebanese military did during the LCW.
 
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The white regime was really firmly in charge. There's no way apartheid would end without a conscious decision to end it. So, the ugliest thing that could happen would be a more militaristic SA regime somehow succeeding in goading one of the three superpowers (England, Russia, or the United States) into attacking it with full force and invading.

I think Russia would have a hard time doing this, Britain and the U.S. less so.
 
The white regime was really firmly in charge. There's no way apartheid would end without a conscious decision to end it. So, the ugliest thing that could happen would be a more militaristic SA regime somehow succeeding in goading one of the three superpowers (England, Russia, or the United States) into attacking it with full force and invading.

I think Russia would have a hard time doing this, Britain and the U.S. less so.

Would the UK have enough sea lift capability to invade SA on their own?
 
All out racial warfare with variating periods of white supremacist and black supremacist rule in various areas of the country, complete with genocide on both sides, but moreso on the establishment side.
 
You seem to be ruling out a prolonged guerrilla war.
South Africa wasn't southern Rhodesia. We're talking something like 5.5 million whites versus 200,000 tops. SA was a military, industrial, and economic force to be reckoned with and was the only superpower on the continent.
 
South Africa wasn't southern Rhodesia. We're talking something like 5.5 million whites versus 200,000 tops. SA was a military, industrial, and economic force to be reckoned with and was the only superpower on the continent.

1. lol at "southern Rhodesia" so 1964 :p
2. isn't the point of AH to change that? you're right in OTL ANC forces couldn't over throw the SADF by force, what POD could make make White SA weaker or ANC stronger or both?
 

Cook

Banned
It was Southern Rhodesia until 1980, at least as far as Britain was concerned.

Really?

I never heard it called anything but Rhodesia. Given that Northern Rhodesia became Zambia in 1964 I’m rather surprised by the ‘southern’ reference.
 

Thande

Donor
Really?

I never heard it called anything but Rhodesia. Given that Northern Rhodesia became Zambia in 1964 I’m rather surprised by the ‘southern’ reference.

It's because it was British Southern Rhodesia when UDI happened so it was still British Southern Rhodesia at the end in 1980, legally, given nobody recognised UDI. Hence the slightly ridiculous position of us having to take responsibility for Ian Smith's antics at the UN in the intervening time.
 
Look at what they pulled off in the Falklands. I think Argentina and SA were roughly comparable powers at that time.

They British were hard pressed with US support to move 2 Brigades of infantry and 9 light tanks to the Falklands. I guess the UK could slowly land troops in another African nation then try a land invasion of SA, but that seems like a logistic nightmare.

How large was the SADF at that time? Did it have an airforce and navy that could fight the UK's Sea Harriers?
 
It's because it was British Southern Rhodesia when UDI happened so it was still British Southern Rhodesia at the end in 1980, legally, given nobody recognised UDI. Hence the slightly ridiculous position of us having to take responsibility for Ian Smith's antics at the UN in the intervening time.

lol some where I have an old map, maybe an atlas from 1979/1980 that one of my middle school teachers gave me (they always gave me old crap) and Rhodesia was in British pink with "(British colony)" in small type under the Rhodesia
 
1. lol at "southern Rhodesia" so 1964 :p
2. isn't the point of AH to change that? you're right in OTL ANC forces couldn't over throw the SADF by force, what POD could make make White SA weaker or ANC stronger or both?

You could have the English whites be less patriotic. Have them give up and move out of SA like the whites in Kenya did. The Boers couldn't run the country by themselves.
 
IIRC the SAAF was built pretty solely around Mirages; the FAA had Mirages/Neshers as its main air combat aircraft and A-4 Skyhawks as its main naval aircraft. I'd have to give the FAA the nod over the SAAF for that little added diversity; they were probably equally trained and effective though.

The reason I think the RAF would be able to beat the SAAF is the same reason they beat the Argentine air force--they had the best available missiles in the world thanks to the U.S., andthe Soviets, Argentines, and South Africans didn't.
 
IIRC the SAAF was built pretty solely around Mirages; the FAA had Mirages/Neshers as its main air combat aircraft and A-4 Skyhawks as its main naval aircraft. I'd have to give the FAA the nod over the SAAF for that little added diversity; they were probably equally trained and effective though.

The reason I think the RAF would be able to beat the SAAF is the same reason they beat the Argentine air force--they had the best available missiles in the world thanks to the U.S., andthe Soviets, Argentines, and South Africans didn't.

What of the SADF land forces? How large were they?
 
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