Worst outcome for Japan

since I asked about Germany, might as well ask, with any POD after 7/12/1941 what is the worst thing that can happen to Japan?
 
Worst outcome for Japan? That's easy, no atomic bombs available.

Japan's going to lose, that was certain the moment she hit Pearl. All that matters is how she loses and how long it takes.

Without Little Boy and Fat Man, Japan is looking at Operation Downfall or an Allied blockade. Either of those options will result in huge numbers of Japanese dead, both military and civilian, and a post-war occupation that will be far less gentle.

Throw in the real possibility of a Soviet landing on Hokkaido and/or a Soviet occupation zone and Japan is in much worse shape.

Come to think of it, the occupation zones planned as part of Downfall included one run by China. Just think of how Japan treated China and then imagine what it would be like in that zone...
 
Worst outcome for Japan? That's easy, no atomic bombs available.

Japan's going to lose, that was certain the moment she hit Pearl. All that matters is how she loses and how long it takes.

Without Little Boy and Fat Man, Japan is looking at Operation Downfall or an Allied blockade. Either of those options will result in huge numbers of Japanese dead, both military and civilian, and a post-war occupation that will be far less gentle.

Throw in the real possibility of a Soviet landing on Hokkaido and/or a Soviet occupation zone and Japan is in much worse shape.

Come to think of it, the occupation zones planned as part of Downfall included one run by China. Just think of how Japan treated China and then imagine what it would be like in that zone...

I can't see the Chinese occupation zone lasting very long, if it's implemented at all - when your government is overcome by civil war, revenge is a luxury.
 
Worst outcome for Japan? That's easy, no atomic bombs available.

Japan's going to lose, that was certain the moment she hit Pearl. All that matters is how she loses and how long it takes.

Without Little Boy and Fat Man, Japan is looking at Operation Downfall or an Allied blockade. Either of those options will result in huge numbers of Japanese dead, both military and civilian, and a post-war occupation that will be far less gentle.

Throw in the real possibility of a Soviet landing on Hokkaido and/or a Soviet occupation zone and Japan is in much worse shape.

Come to think of it, the occupation zones planned as part of Downfall included one run by China. Just think of how Japan treated China and then imagine what it would be like in that zone...

All true, but for the worst possible, take the blockade. The home island were already running short on food - cut off what's left and you'll have stripped skeletons piled in the streets within a year.
 
the blockade comes up from time to time, so say the blockade happens, cuts off the islands from the world and each other, all fishing is cut off, how many people can each island support on farming alone?
 
the blockade comes up from time to time, so say the blockade happens, cuts off the islands from the world and each other, all fishing is cut off, how many people can each island support on farming alone?

Don't forget to account for periodic air attacks, shore bombardments, raids, etc. Bear in mind anything that looks like an industrial target is going to be flattened. Figure your farming will be done with human and animal power. Oh, how many draft animals were on the home islands? You won't be bringing any more in. Each island will also have to fend for itself; PT boats and LCS(L) will be roaming the channels day and night, sinking barges and boats. No offshore fishing; PC's and SC's (sub chasers) will make sure of that.
 
the blockade comes up from time to time, so say the blockade happens, cuts off the islands from the world and each other, all fishing is cut off, how many people can each island support on farming alone?
The problem isn't just how much arable land they have it's also getting the food once it's grown to the population, the US bombed strategic sections of Japan's railway network a fair amount in our timeline, without the Japanese surrender IIRC the plan was to take it apart completely. If the Allies institute a blockade then without oil or a railway the Japanese will be forced to revert back to animal transportation, and when they die you're left with human power and quickly moving into mass starvation.
 
The problem isn't just how much arable land they have it's also getting the food once it's grown to the population, the US bombed strategic sections of Japan's railway network a fair amount in our timeline, without the Japanese surrender IIRC the plan was to take it apart completely. If the Allies institute a blockade then without oil or a railway the Japanese will be forced to revert back to animal transportation, and when they die you're left with human power and quickly moving into mass starvation.
Indeed. In a normal year, if the Japanese went completely vegetarian they could have supported a significant fraction of their population (at a near starvation level, perhaps). However, a) the harvest in '45 was horrible, and b) there is that distribution problem. Oh, and c) they'd have tried to take high value foodstuffs for the army (e.g. meat).

The farmers in the boonies might well have survived. Tokyo would have been a wasteland.
 
I've also read that the US was considering dropping a rice-killing agent on the islands. Large scale deployment would lead to utter starvation for civilians.

I agree with the No Nukes being the worst case, as the Soviets would have overrun Hokaido by early '46 at the latest.
 
the blockade comes up from time to time, so say the blockade happens, cuts off the islands from the world and each other, all fishing is cut off, how many people can each island support on farming alone?

Its not just a issue of growing the stuff. A very large portion of the Japanese transport capacity depended on rather small inner coastal transports. Stuff started going really really really bad for the civilian Japanese when the Americans mined the coasts.

Japan just didn't have the rail roads to transport food and supplies across the islands effectively.

Now imagine a situation where thousands of fighter bombers and hundreds of B29s, B32s and perhaps B36s sweep across Japan daily. Where quite literally everything including guys on Bicycles and just about any animal is a target.

Now imagine every major city a death zone where people fight each other for rats and within a short period of time each others flesh.
 
If Japan fights on, what happens to the Japanese soldiers in China? Do they surrender, or fight on? My guess is fight on. If that happens, a US landing in China is a very real possibility. The Chinese government was on the ropes by 1945, after the loss of lots of territory in 1944. If the US lands, that could very well lead to US intervention in the Chinese Civil War, since the US will already have lots of troops on the ground.

A Chinese occupation zone in Japan would be ugly. It would probably be maintained, even if they are supplied by the US.
 
In a normal year, if the Japanese went completely vegetarian they could have supported a significant fraction of their population (at a near starvation level, perhaps).


No.

When this undead topic makes it's seemingly monthly appearance, it is always explained that it's not just a matter of growing enough rice, catching enough fish, or enough people becoming vegetarians. The crux of the problem is the distribution food and not simply the production of the same.

The US had all but shut down coastal freighting, the railway system had been cut to pieces, bridges were being smashed one by one, and the aerial preparations for Downfall planned on savaging what little was left of the Home Islands transportation network.

By 1945 it was becoming readily apparent that Japan would soon be unable to move food to where the people were or move people to where the food was. If the invasion preparations continued, followed by the invasions themselves, the Home Islands would have starved and Halsey's desire that Japanese only be spoken in Hell would come frighteningly close to reality.

Quite honestly, this point has been covered dozens of times here in the last year alone. Considering the number of times this topic is dragged from it's coffin - at least twice today alone - there's no good reason apart from being a recent arrival for most active members not to be aware of it.
 
Last edited:
If Japan fights on, what happens to the Japanese soldiers in China? Do they surrender, or fight on? My guess is fight on. If that happens, a US landing in China is a very real possibility. The Chinese government was on the ropes by 1945, after the loss of lots of territory in 1944. If the US lands, that could very well lead to US intervention in the Chinese Civil War, since the US will already have lots of troops on the ground.

US DID have troops on the ground during the civil war, and skirmishes took place with casualties sustained. It didn't lead to large scale intervention however.

A Chinese occupation zone in Japan would be ugly. It would probably be maintained, even if they are supplied by the US.

I doubt it. IOTL Japanese POWs and civilian settlers were treated fairly well in China. In fact both the Nationalists and Communists took in Japanese POWs as advisors. For the most part they were sent home as soon as possible, unlike for example the POWs taken by the Soviets. Even today Japanese deniers of the Rape of Nanking use the example of good treatment of Japanese POWs in post war Nanking as "evidence" that no massacre must have taken place.

Besides the Chinese occupation zone, IIRC was the Ryukyu islands not mainland Japan. In anycase, Chiang Kai-shek turned down the job.
 
The worse outcome for Japan, besides blockade and bombardment induced famine, would surely be the division of Japan into two countries ala Korea, and the subsequent "Japanese War" that may follow. Historically Japan was a unified, monolithic nation. Such a division would be spiritually traumatic.

As it was, the outcome of the war in Asia was quite different to Europe, with Japan united and Korea divided. Imagine WWII in Europe ending with a unified Germany and a divided Poland.
 
Worst outcome for Japan? That's easy, no atomic bombs available.

Japan's going to lose, that was certain the moment she hit Pearl. All that matters is how she loses and how long it takes.

Without Little Boy and Fat Man, Japan is looking at Operation Downfall or an Allied blockade.
Either of those options will result in huge numbers of Japanese dead, both military and civilian, and a post-war occupation that will be far less gentle.
Sa'id Mohammed
The Allied invasion of Japan plus the use of multiple nuclear warheads.
Operation Downfall combined with More Nukes.
After Nagasaki the Officer Coup is successful. Japan doesn't surrender.
A-Bombs used to clear the Beaches in Olympic. Then used while waiting for Coronet. Used again to clear the beaches during Coronet.
 
If Japan fights on, what happens to the Japanese soldiers in China? Do they surrender, or fight on? My guess is fight on. If that happens, a US landing in China is a very real possibility. The Chinese government was on the ropes by 1945, after the loss of lots of territory in 1944. If the US lands, that could very well lead to US intervention in the Chinese Civil War, since the US will already have lots of troops on the ground.

Actually, specifically trained and equipped (by the US) Chinese KMT troops were just STARTING to launch successful offensives against the (retreating) IJA forces in China when the bombs were dropped. Without them, the KMT (and PLA) could be counted on to retake much of the eastern portions of China themselves (with US China land based air support). The IJA most likely would have dug in along the coastline to prevent the ports falling to the Allies.

As to Allied ground support? Good question. US Army? USMC? Aussies? NZ? UK?
 
An invasion that involves nuclear weapons being used in both the tactical and strategic role. Plus the implementation of the US contingency plan to hit all major Japanese cities with chemical weapons, destroy its agriculture with weaponized Anthrax, plus the Japanese use of chemical and biological weapons against the Allied forces.

It will be a miracle if there is any Japan after all that. It's surviving population will be starving, irradiated, suffering from terrible untreated injuries and disease, and its arable land will be poisoned for decades. It would become a desert.
 
Top