since I asked about Germany, might as well ask, with any POD after 7/12/1941 what is the worst thing that can happen to Japan?
Worst outcome for Japan? That's easy, no atomic bombs available.
Japan's going to lose, that was certain the moment she hit Pearl. All that matters is how she loses and how long it takes.
Without Little Boy and Fat Man, Japan is looking at Operation Downfall or an Allied blockade. Either of those options will result in huge numbers of Japanese dead, both military and civilian, and a post-war occupation that will be far less gentle.
Throw in the real possibility of a Soviet landing on Hokkaido and/or a Soviet occupation zone and Japan is in much worse shape.
Come to think of it, the occupation zones planned as part of Downfall included one run by China. Just think of how Japan treated China and then imagine what it would be like in that zone...
Worst outcome for Japan? That's easy, no atomic bombs available.
Japan's going to lose, that was certain the moment she hit Pearl. All that matters is how she loses and how long it takes.
Without Little Boy and Fat Man, Japan is looking at Operation Downfall or an Allied blockade. Either of those options will result in huge numbers of Japanese dead, both military and civilian, and a post-war occupation that will be far less gentle.
Throw in the real possibility of a Soviet landing on Hokkaido and/or a Soviet occupation zone and Japan is in much worse shape.
Come to think of it, the occupation zones planned as part of Downfall included one run by China. Just think of how Japan treated China and then imagine what it would be like in that zone...
the blockade comes up from time to time, so say the blockade happens, cuts off the islands from the world and each other, all fishing is cut off, how many people can each island support on farming alone?
The problem isn't just how much arable land they have it's also getting the food once it's grown to the population, the US bombed strategic sections of Japan's railway network a fair amount in our timeline, without the Japanese surrender IIRC the plan was to take it apart completely. If the Allies institute a blockade then without oil or a railway the Japanese will be forced to revert back to animal transportation, and when they die you're left with human power and quickly moving into mass starvation.the blockade comes up from time to time, so say the blockade happens, cuts off the islands from the world and each other, all fishing is cut off, how many people can each island support on farming alone?
Indeed. In a normal year, if the Japanese went completely vegetarian they could have supported a significant fraction of their population (at a near starvation level, perhaps). However, a) the harvest in '45 was horrible, and b) there is that distribution problem. Oh, and c) they'd have tried to take high value foodstuffs for the army (e.g. meat).The problem isn't just how much arable land they have it's also getting the food once it's grown to the population, the US bombed strategic sections of Japan's railway network a fair amount in our timeline, without the Japanese surrender IIRC the plan was to take it apart completely. If the Allies institute a blockade then without oil or a railway the Japanese will be forced to revert back to animal transportation, and when they die you're left with human power and quickly moving into mass starvation.
the blockade comes up from time to time, so say the blockade happens, cuts off the islands from the world and each other, all fishing is cut off, how many people can each island support on farming alone?
In a normal year, if the Japanese went completely vegetarian they could have supported a significant fraction of their population (at a near starvation level, perhaps).
No.
When this undead topic makes it's seemingly monthly appearance,
If Japan fights on, what happens to the Japanese soldiers in China? Do they surrender, or fight on? My guess is fight on. If that happens, a US landing in China is a very real possibility. The Chinese government was on the ropes by 1945, after the loss of lots of territory in 1944. If the US lands, that could very well lead to US intervention in the Chinese Civil War, since the US will already have lots of troops on the ground.
A Chinese occupation zone in Japan would be ugly. It would probably be maintained, even if they are supplied by the US.
Worst outcome for Japan? That's easy, no atomic bombs available.
Japan's going to lose, that was certain the moment she hit Pearl. All that matters is how she loses and how long it takes.
Without Little Boy and Fat Man, Japan is looking at Operation Downfall or an Allied blockade.
Either of those options will result in huge numbers of Japanese dead, both military and civilian, and a post-war occupation that will be far less gentle.
Operation Downfall combined with More Nukes.Sa'id Mohammed
The Allied invasion of Japan plus the use of multiple nuclear warheads.
If Japan fights on, what happens to the Japanese soldiers in China? Do they surrender, or fight on? My guess is fight on. If that happens, a US landing in China is a very real possibility. The Chinese government was on the ropes by 1945, after the loss of lots of territory in 1944. If the US lands, that could very well lead to US intervention in the Chinese Civil War, since the US will already have lots of troops on the ground.