Worst outcome for Germany

1 September 1939: Germany invades Poland. Overflights by France have concluded that Germany has the vast majority of its army involved in the Polish invasion and the garrisons left behind are not adequate to hold off a French incursion if they move quickly. Daladier, Chamberlain, Spaak of Belgium, and Luxembourg hold secret talks and vow that what happened in 1914 will not be repeated and also that they have a golden opportunity to take Hitler out but they have to strike ASAP. To that end all three nations mobilize as quickly and as quietly as they can. To that end they are successful in fooling the Germans for several weeks that they are in general building up for war but not about to attack.

7 Sept, 1939: The French abort their planned offensive into the Saar as it is clear Poland will fall sooner rather than later no matter what. Instead they continue building up their forces for a general offensive along the entire Seigfried line and up into Belgium where the British have already started to transport war materials and men to Belgium.

17 Sept, 1939: The Soviet Union invades Poland as per the MR pact. The Western Allies panic as they realize Poland will fall MUCH quicker than they thought and put civilian life in their nations in stasis as everything possible is commandeered and sequestered to complete mobilization for an offensive into Germany.

28 Sept, 1939: Germany finally wakes up to the fact that the WA are not acting according to the script as well as the buildup in Belgium and Luxembourg of troops. Hitler himself makes the crucial mistake that Germany MUST finish off her part of Poland or else the USSR might strike and thus delays the withdraw of German division from the east for several days. Simultaneously the order is given to redeploy forces to the Belgian border from their entrenchments on the Siegfried Line. These redeployments do not go unnoticed by the WA.

5 Oct, 1939: Belgium and Luxembourg declare war on Germany. Britain, France and Belgium have spent their month well (Luxembourg is too small to provide any forces for the offensive) and invade Germany along a broad front with over a million men between them. They have also gotten a crash course in blitzkrieg tactics and although they do not use such tactics themselves they have modified their battle plans somewhat to take into account the speed and power of the German advance into Poland. The large majority of Germany's armed forces are stuck in the middle of Poland including 85% of their crucial armored divisions and of those left 30% are stuck in redeployment up to Belgium. In the first day the French are able to cross the Rhine in no less than 7 places and smash through the Sigfried Line with sheer force of numbers in multiple places. Britain and Belgium fare even better due to the fact that most of the redeployed forces that have arrived are not organized let alone dug in.

8 Oct - 5 Nov, 1939: The WA have broken through the thin crust of Germany's defenses and run absolutely rampant advancing over 100 miles in October and capturing much of Germany's industrial capacity in the Ruhr.

6 Nov, 1939: With the WA approaching Hamburg and getting ever closer to Munich as well as the fact that the Poles destroyed much of their own infrastructure after the WA attacked, delaying the march out of Poland by 3-4 days, Germany had had enough. Wilhelm Canaris and several generals including Guderian put together a coup and took control of a large part of the Berlin garrison. This coup worked swiftly and in the space of 8 hours Hitler, Himmler, Goebbels, Goering and over 500 other top Nazi party officials were executed, burned, or artillery shelled. Thousands more will be similarly 'purged' in the coming days and weeks.

7 Nov, 1939: Canaris radios the WA with the knowledge that the Nazi govn't has fallen and Germany wishes for a ceasefire and negotiations. The WA agree to these terms after it is also negotiated that the Wehrmacht will cease all redeployment towards the front. Canaris orders the majority of the German army back into Poland to guard against a Soviet back stab. Overall WA casualties are less than 75k dead and wounded while Germany's casualties are less than 100k.

1 Jan, 1940: The New Year's Day Treaty is finalized. It is, unsurprisingly, very lenient to Germany in light of the fact that any clash with the bulk of the Wehrmacht would have resulted in tremendous casualties for both sides as well as a recognition by the French that the Versailles Treaty led to this whole debacle. The main point are thus.

1. Germany will withdraw from Poland and repudiate the MR pact.

2. Germany will pay reparations to Poland commensurate to the amount of damage it caused.

3. Germany will recognize that it engaged in a war of aggression against Poland.

4. Germany will release the Czech portion of its nation inc. the Sudetenland.

5. A plebiscite will be held in the Austrian portion of Germany re: whether to stay or split.

6. In recognition of the causes of the war the 'Polish Corridor' will instead become an international zone run by governors from Germany, Poland and the WA.

7. The Wehrmacht will demobilize to 250k soldiers and remain at that level for at least 2 years.

8. Germany will hold democratic elections as soon as practicable.

Jan-Feb 1939: Bowing to pressure the Soviets withdraw from Eastern Poland. Stalin is not happy at all but considering he might very well be facing all of Europe if he remains he decides discretion is the better part of valor.

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This is IMO the worst outcome possible for Germany militarily... completely crushed by the WA due to their quick reaction as opposed to the phoney war of OTL...
 

CalBear

Moderator
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That doesn't sound good. Does that mean you have a good idea of how it's eventually going to end?

That said, I have to agree.

I do know the way it will end. The details continue to develop, but yea, the ending is fairly clear.

Not going to be pretty all the way around. Winner is a relative concept.
 

CalBear

Moderator
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Monthly Donor
the way Anthrax is makes that less likely, there isn't any spread directly from one infected person to another, rather by way of spores, so the farther from Germany you get less likely to find a spore.

Pretty much correct, although the amount of transfer could make Anthrax more common, especially in farm animals across Europe.
 
i agree with comrade wiking

worst scenario for germany

hitler gets furious at his cities being bombed into oblivion in 1943 and orders night strikes with nerve agents... these kill thousands in london and other british industrial cities

churchill in return takes the gloves off and unleashes weaponized anthrax and orders every town in germany with more than 5000 people to be saturated along with the major rivers

en sue the economic collapse of Germany, the breakdown of all services; mass contamination, and finally due both to confusion/insanity in the german government and churchill's hardheadedness, the entire extermination of the german culture
 
I must agree with the posters pointing to the anthrax option. :(

Sadly, there are some things worse than nukes... :(
 
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Valdemar II

Banned
While without a doubt that would have been very bad, there's still worse. Let me take a look at a few very bad things which Germany evaded in OTL. A lot of them do not involve Germany winning, but performing better but losing anyways:

-> Germany surrendered early enough before the first atomic bomb was ready, and was spared of the fate of having an atomic bomb dropped on Germany. So, Germany performing the inch better to hold out a few months longer will assure the first atomic bomb getting dropped on Germany.

50-100 000 more Germans dies, and some German towns are destroyed. Yes it's worse than OTL, but not by that much. Plus the Germans are less likely than the Japanese to paint themself as victims because this, so this is just a Dresden more.

-> Granted, Germany had the Oder-Neisse line forced upon it by Stalin, but apart from that, Germany was spared of a collective land-grab by it's neighbours, such as the Bakker-Schutt-Plan.

The fact that the Dutch dropped the idea in OTL, through under pressure from the allies, showed that the Dutch really didn't have that great interest in this. The Dutch also started a ethnic cleansing of Germans (mostly immigrants) in Netherlands, but dropped it. the German minority which did exist in Denmark, Belgium and France was mostly left alone after the War. I don't think any of German neighbours really had the interest in making large land claims and ethnic cleansing, none of them had been abused to the same degree as the East Europeans and when the first anger had cooled, they lost interest in taking revenge.

-> The Morgenthau Plan was also not fully executed in OTL (well, it was attempted half-heartedly, but abandoned). The main reason for the failure of the plan was that it was utterly impractical in the face of the starting Cold War. This may be avoided by the Soviet Union being in a much worse shape after WWII, which again, would involve Germany performing the inch better in WWII, but ending up losing anyways. The Soviet Union achieved only a very pyrrhic victory, and is in no shape to exert a threat onto the West after the war. In such a scenario, the Morgenthau Plan might be feasible. Of course, there's the problem that the area of modern Germany could only sustain about 30 million people by subsistence agriculture, and Germany in 1945 had about 60 million people, which would have meant either mass starvation or half of the population being forcible removed to elsewhere effectively as slaves. Depending on how revanchist the Allies are (and depending on the factor that they have zero intent in proving history that they're the nicer victors because they treat the defeated better), this might actually happen, however.

The Morgenthau plan was dropped fast in OTL for two reasons, fear of Germans becoming pro-Soviet, but just as much to avoid a collapse of the European economy. The rest of Europe needed German industries and you have to change Nazi idealogy to make the western allies angry enough to try a long term implementation of Morgenthau Plan rather than some small attempts in primary the American zone.
-> Germany refrained from using chemical weapons for bombardment in OTL. If they had, this would have triggered Allied retaliation in kind, which would have *tremendously* increased the number of civilian casualties in Germany.

Yes that one are ugly
-> Lastly, there's the possibility of Germany never again achieving national sovereignity of any degree. Even in OTL, Germany only re-achieved full sovereignity in 1990, but imagine a scenario where not even the partial sovereignity of the German states in 1949 wasn't even achieved.

The problem are again you need radical change in West Europe and USA to really truy to attempt that. The only real way I could see that happens are in complete Soviet collapse, and the allies setting up puppets regimes with free elections, but a ban against reunification and permanent allied forces in the country. But the result would likely be several German states in the 1938 borders. If we see the same push toward free trade and European cooperation (not unlikely, free trade means identical standards, so we need some kind of organistion to set up those and in that case other thing could be put into that organisation). We will fundamental by 2000 see EU just with several more German members and a lack of the Bundesrepublik, and a East Germany with West German standards of living, and Hinterpommern, Silesia, Neumark and East Prussia with German population. I have a hard time seing that as worse for the German people
 
I must agree with the posters pointing to the anthrax option. :(

Sadly, there are some things worse than nukes... :(
Honestly, I'm not entirely sure that anthrax would be WORSE than nukes, but it was available during WWII, where nukes weren't. Of course, it would be a comparable level of population kill to carpeting Germany with nukes, so it's not hardly 'better'. More like 'about the same - except doable with WWII tech.'
 
Germany geting pulverized with atomic weaponry is arguably worse as bad as Hitler was...

Not really once the dust clears Germany is rebuilt by a sane capitalist government & a sane communist one, both of which are much better than the hilarious and illiterate clusterfuck that Germany becomes in ten or twenty years after Hitler wins the war. Read ‘’For All Time’’ a rather dystopic TL to get an idea of what Hitler’s victory would be like.
 
Worst outcome is constant dropping of atomic bomb in major cities in Germany. Then, Nazi fanatics will resist the Allies especially the Soviets or Hitler continues the scorch-earth policy and in the end, all Germans will strive to death or flee Germany to escape upcoming Soviet invasion.
 
Honestly, I'm not entirely sure that anthrax would be WORSE than nukes...


I am, because...

... but it was available during WWII, where nukes weren't.

Bingo! Give the man a cigar!

Anthrax would also effect more people more quickly than first generation fission warheads.

We'd need thermonuclear warheads to create the same death toll via nuclear bombardment that anthrax can achieve through "normal" bombing.

And, thanks to the spores and radiological contaminants, both anthrax and nukes will be gifts that keep on giving.

More like 'about the same - except doable with WWII tech.'

So, given WW2 technology, anthrax is "doable" and thus "worse", right?

Thank you for "explaining" that to the rest of us.
 

Lukkonle

Banned
Hitler wins.
Excellent answer.



-Germany does better against SU. Takes Moscow, prolongs the war, and sabotages Lend Lease by intelligence discoveries about communist spies in USA in Moscow. As a result war lasts till 1946 and Soviets aren't in position to dictate Central Europe, only regaining their pre-war borders and some Polish gains.
This means no Cold War-at thus Allied plans for Germany go full throttle. There are no investments in German economy, industry by East or West and reparations are paid in full to all countries which didn’t' received them in OTL-Poland, Greece.
Since the war lasted till 1946 and Germany got more Intel, it managed to gain information on Manhattan project and fearful Hitler ordered more research into A-9/10 rockets of Von Braun. In 1946 in the closing months of the war, they actually managed to hit New York three or four times. As a result American public is furious and three German cities are bombed with A-bombs in return. Americans are also determined to punish Germany for the act, so more radical ideas are supported. German industry is stripped down and given to neighbouring countries, Sorb activists get their Sorb homeland and nobody cares about population transfers of Germans. Germany is divided and never unifies again, with South and North German areas being developed and managed quite differently by Allies and in different economic structures. When they eventually do regain independence too much time and changes have passed for them to become one state again.
 
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Excellent answer.



-Germany does better against SU. Takes Moscow, prolongs the war, and sabotages Lend Lease by intelligence discoveries about communist spies in USA in Moscow. As a result war lasts till 1946 and Soviets aren't in position to dictate Central Europe, only regaining their pre-war borders and some Polish gains.
This means no Cold War-at thus Allied plans for Germany go full throttle. There are no investments in German economy, industry by East or West and reparations are paid in full to all countries which didn’t' received them in OTL-Poland, Greece.
Since the war lasted till 1946 and Germany got more Intel, it managed to gain information on Manhattan project and fearful Hitler ordered more research into A-9/10 rockets of Von Braun. In 1946 in the closing months of the war, they actually managed to hit New York three or four times. As a result American public is furious and three German cities are bombed with A-bombs in return. Americans are also determined to punish Germany for the act, so more radical ideas are supported. German industry is stripped down and given to neighbouring countries, Sorb activists get their Sorb homeland and nobody cares about population transfers of Germans. Germany is divided and never unifies again, with South and North German areas being developed and managed quite differently by Allies and in different economic structures. When they eventually do regain independence too much time and changes have passed for them to become one state again.

This would be your wet dream, Hurgy!
 
In the end days of an alternate WW2, a brilliant resistance leader against the Japanese occupation was exposed to germ warfare and only narrowly survived.

1979, Deng Xiaoping like figures takes power in China. In appearance, he open the Chinese economy to the west in particular and the world in general, begin a serie of reformations that are widely seen as positive even if too slow in the west.

Secretely, his governement is building vaste strategic food reserves, the most modern factories are moved away from major urban/industrial, small but numerous reserves of ammunition and fuel are prepared across the country to support a "pacification and order" professional army that have all the appearances of local militias in peacetime. Winter clothings begin to be accumulated after 1983. He does not particulary bother with any anti-natalistic policies nor give much effort in maintaining a strong military force.


August 4th 1985, commandos have captured a truck headed form the Soviet embassy, replaces with an ameliorated version capable of transporting a far heavier load.

Washington is destroyed by a thermonuclear explosion, when it is discovered the bomb had a yield similar to a type of bombs used by the Soviet-Union and that ground zero is the soviet embassy, WW3 soon starts. Once the remnants of the US governement and military that have say in the matter of thermonuclear strikes have evacuated from the cities, now consumed by panic, to small but well-equipped bases, approximatively 12 000 warheads are launched at the Soviet-Union. Full escalation between the Warsawa pact and nato follows, the war is extended to the middle-east, south america, north africa, Australia, Indonesia, Indochina, India and South Africa.
China itself faces thermonuclear strikes but the Soviets mererly strikes the Chinese armies and industrial areas to prevent a Soviet invasion of Siberia, while the US destroy the major cities (which have onlya fraction of the Chinese population) but not much more.
By virtue of surviving WW3 as a functionning state and having most of its working age and younger population survive it, alt-Xiaoping

Germany itself faces tactical thermonuclear war early on, some tactical weapons used are 475 times more powerfull than the Hiroshima bomb, 4 major cities are completely destroyed.
When the US launch its thermonuclear strike, the Soviets targets the west german cities, while the whole Rhineland is simply incinerated. When the US attempst to target nuclear powerplants in the Soviet-Union with SMBMs a few weeks after major escalation, west german nuclear powerplants are destroyed with tacticals by Soviet bombers, resulting in further contamination.
Since West Berlin fell under Red Army control, the US decide to send half a dozen warheads (475 kilotons each) against it too.
Refugees flees toward France and Poland, that have faced lesser strikes and resulting contamination. Others flee toward Austria, Switzerland, Yugoslavia and even norther Italy. Germany itself cease to exist as a state, only the numerous red zones prevent survivors from fleeing Germany in the next decade.
In the next 15-25 years, western germany, england and holland have become a new wild west where no one bother to restore order as the contamination leaving only the crazy, the irradiated and the looter.
Meanwhile, Greater Vienna is like Port Royal without the Port and +10 millions inhabitants, Austria have become a protectorat of the Switzerland, by default the great west european power now. Between former Astrakhan and Stalingrad, the new DDR is founded by east German survivors.

43-44 years after WW3, WW4 starts.
 
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Tell us, what's the color of the sky in your world?


POD is 1939, right? Thus, 40-46 years between it and the world changing event, plenty of time for Nuke Hitler, especially when the German version had a bomb-related heart accident in November 39.

http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/1983:_Doomsdayhttp://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/1983:_Doomsday

Only problem was that it was all an accident, it is more dystopic if WW3 happened because someone planned it to happen.
 
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