Worst case scenario for South Africa

samcster94

Banned
This takes a standard "Mandela dead in prison in the 80's" approach and tries to make the worst of it. I want something that takes the worst aspects of Zimbabwe combined with the Balkan wars in the 90's where there is a massive refugee crisis, race riots everywhere, and at least one military strongman somewhere. It has to be realistic, but as awful as possible.
 
Civil war in a longer cold war would get you there. You can have increasing NBC use as Cuban and Front line states intervene . Also increasing communist influence leads to infighting among the ANC and other African nationalist groups while the White population or perceived collaborators are killed or forced out from any areas captured as they slowly gain ground due to Sheer numbers and Soviet supplies .You could also have black ethnic breakaway states such as Zululand and enlarged Bantustans ethnically cleansing anyone who isn't a member . This along with a Apartheid government divided between trying to reunite South Africa or craving out a White state and slowly losing control to increasingly extreme Militias which regularly massacres or forces out any blacks or whites they view as threats .
 

samcster94

Banned
Civil war in a longer cold war would get you there. You can have increasing NBC use as Cuban and Front line states intervene . Also increasing communist influence leads to infighting among the ANC and other African nationalist groups while the White population or perceived collaborators are killed or forced out from any areas captured as they slowly gain ground due to Sheer numbers and Soviet supplies .You could also have black ethnic breakaway states such as Zululand and enlarged Bantustans ethnically cleansing anyone who isn't a member . This along with a Apartheid government divided between trying to reunite South Africa or craving out a White state and slowly losing control to increasingly extreme Militias which regularly massacres or forces out any blacks or whites they view as threats .
So, Gorby never runs the USSR, but some hardliner does instead(in order to prevent the OTL cooling of tensions)???
 
a small minority population with nuclear weapons in fear of being over-run by a larger majority who they have been oppressing for years? That's a potential for major disaster
 
a small minority population with nuclear weapons in fear of being over-run by a larger majority who they have been oppressing for years? That's a potential for major disaster

Yeah and otl was nothing less than a miracle on that front, same with the fall of the eastern bloc
 

Lusitania

Donor
Civil war between Africaners and rest of whites breaks out in 1965. Atrocities against civilians especially blacks occur. After 2 years of fighting the Africaneers win the war resulting in about 1/3 to 1/2 whites, mixed and Asians fleeing South Africa. As minority white civil war ends. Blacks rise up and armed by Soviets attacks the whites. aNC is the largest of these African groups espousing a South Africa for blacks they gain majority of black support and defeat Africaners resulting in 90% of whites fleeing South Africa. A communist ANC come to power in South Africa in 1968
 
Civil war between Africaners and rest of whites breaks out in 1965. Atrocities against civilians especially blacks occur. After 2 years of fighting the Africaneers win the war resulting in about 1/3 to 1/2 whites, mixed and Asians fleeing South Africa. As minority white civil war ends. Blacks rise up and armed by Soviets attacks the whites. aNC is the largest of these African groups espousing a South Africa for blacks they gain majority of black support and defeat Africaners resulting in 90% of whites fleeing South Africa. A communist ANC come to power in South Africa in 1968

Why would there be a civil war between Afrikaners and other whites in 1965?

The economy was booming, tensions between whites were low, the ANC had pretty much been beaten for the time being, and the country was surrounded by white-ruled territories.

If you want an intra-white civil war your best bet is the Maritz uprising in 1914 or the the Rand Rebellion of 1922.

Very close to ASB is perhaps unrest surrounding Natal secession around the 1950s.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Why would there be a civil war between Afrikaners and other whites in 1965?

The economy was booming, tensions between whites were low, the ANC had pretty much been beaten for the time being, and the country was surrounded by white-ruled territories.

If you want an intra-white civil war your best bet is the Maritz uprising in 1914 or the the Rand Rebellion of 1922.

Very close to ASB is perhaps unrest surrounding Natal secession around the 1950s.

This is actually from my Lusophone TL where South Africa voted by small margin to stay in commonwealth in 1960 and South African economic strength in Africa is being eclipsed by Portuguese East and west africa with, but you will need to read the TL for full picture of Africa continent.

So South Africa 1966 election results in win for the United party and Graff brings in legislature to give political power to Mixed races and Asians (this was due to enhanced voting franchise elsewhere in Africa and growing communist aligned countries in African continent. The Africaneers react angrily and their supporters within the military and security forces attempt to stage a coup of the South African government.
 
This is actually from my Lusophone TL where South Africa voted by small margin to stay in commonwealth in 1960 and South African economic strength in Africa is being eclipsed by Portuguese East and west africa with, but you will need to read the TL for full picture of Africa continent.

So South Africa 1966 election results in win for the United party and Graff brings in legislature to give political power to Mixed races and Asians (this was due to enhanced voting franchise elsewhere in Africa and growing communist aligned countries in African continent. The Africaneers react angrily and their supporters within the military and security forces attempt to stage a coup of the South African government.

What's the POD though? In 1966 the Nats won easily, getting nearly 60% of the vote and three-quarters of the seats. What happens to make it possible for the UP and Graaff to win?

Also, why would the military intervene? There is no tradition of that and the military has remained politically neutral, even in the dying days of apartheid.
 

Lusitania

Donor
What's the POD though? In 1966 the Nats won easily, getting nearly 60% of the vote and three-quarters of the seats. What happens to make it possible for the UP and Graaff to win?

Also, why would the military intervene? There is no tradition of that and the military has remained politically neutral, even in the dying days of apartheid.

The POD is in 1950s as South Africa economy looses steam United party makes inroads slowly and by 1966 election win election and have 1 seat majority.

Africaners riot and attack both government and blacks due to enactment of legislation to grant voting to Asians. Government order security forces to arrest rioters but majority of security forces refuse to move against the Africaners. The government orders military to stop rioting and elements with the armed forces also refuse to stop rioting. The Africaners then attempt to overthrow government and those People who support the Africaners position join the revolt.

National party and its supporters plus parts of security and armed forces fight the Africaners attempted coup.
 
The POD is in 1950s as South Africa economy looses steam United party makes inroads slowly and by 1966 election win election and have 1 seat majority.

Africaners riot and attack both government and blacks due to enactment of legislation to grant voting to Asians. Government order security forces to arrest rioters but majority of security forces refuse to move against the Africaners. The government orders military to stop rioting and elements with the armed forces also refuse to stop rioting. The Africaners then attempt to overthrow government and those People who support the Africaners position join the revolt.

National party and its supporters plus parts of security and armed forces fight the Africaners attempted coup.

OK, fair enough (not that I agree), but Afrikaners aren't these beasts that will attack black people because Asians can now vote.

And I'm not sure what the bolded part means. Surely the Nats and security forces would be on the side of the Afrikaners in this scenario?
 

Lusitania

Donor
OK, fair enough (not that I agree), but Afrikaners aren't these beasts that will attack black people because Asians can now vote.

And I'm not sure what the bolded part means. Surely the Nats and security forces would be on the side of the Afrikaners in this scenario?

Bold was error. They not killing blacks this time but rioting against the enhancement of the franchise they consider their only. Attacks are taking place against all those they think support the government. Yes most of security and military on the Africaners side. Government looses half of country before with commonwealth support able to try to defeat the rebels. Thousands of blacks also rally to the United side. Communist rebels also appear fighting both the United and Africaners making it a mess.
 
Bold was error. They not killing blacks this time but rioting against the enhancement of the franchise they consider their only. Attacks are taking place against all those they think support the government. Yes most of security and military on the Africaners side. Government looses half of country before with commonwealth support able to try to defeat the rebels. Thousands of blacks also rally to the United side. Communist rebels also appear fighting both the United and Africaners making it a mess.

Pretty ASB if you ask me, without big earlier PODs.
 
It depends on what your opinion of the worst case scenario is I think. Nuclear war is probably the undisputed worst possible outcome, but there'd lots of lesser, more diverse flavors of awfulness. On the one hand there's the possibility of increased racial violence which leads to a crackdown by the Apartheid government on dissent. Eventually that boils over into full blown racial warfare and the country, insofar as it exists, becomes a highly militarized state flush with foreign supplied weapons. On the other hand the government could be toppled, and the same situation could develop, but with less cohesion between armed groups like the remnants of the SADF. You could end up with regiments and divisions fighting to secure positions and purge anyone they deem as opposition. The same with the armed African nationalist groups. In either situation the global community is likely to step in, particularly if the government falls and is unable to keep a firm grasp on its nuclear weapons.

Maybe the worst outcome in terms of human casualties is the possibility of the development and deployment, intentional or accidental, of a targeted ethnic weapon. I've read that under programs like Project Coast the government investigated the possibiliity of sterilizing or killing targeted populations through biological weapons. Such a weapon is probably not even possible, but if it were, and South Africa created it, things could get VERY ugly. I don't know enough about biology and virology to suggest a potential POD for creating such a device, but maybe someone else has a suggestion.
 
A slightly less solid but still interesting set of events can be found in Barrett Tillman's The Sixth Battle, although it's focused considerably more on the Great Power relationships occurring around it.

Is it any good? I normally don't like military fiction (normally too focused on the gear which I'm not particularly interested in) but I loved Vortex. I thought Larry Bond did well to describe the politics etc realistically. That said I did read it when I was about fifteen so it possibly wouldn't pass muster to my more sophisticated (I hope) reader's eye.
 
Is it any good? I normally don't like military fiction (normally too focused on the gear which I'm not particularly interested in) but I loved Vortex. I thought Larry Bond did well to describe the politics etc realistically. That said I did read it when I was about fifteen so it possibly wouldn't pass muster to my more sophisticated (I hope) reader's eye.
It's a decent read, but I liked it mainly for the naval warfare [1]. I think the politics are rather less plausible than Vortex. I thought it was well worth what I paid for it, but I paid 50 cents for it used

[1]The titular Sixth Battle being the sixth real battle between aircraft carrier forces, the author considers Cape Engano more of a massacre than a battle
 
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