Worst Case Scenario for Lee in Maryland in 1862?

[Glass Onion]

I'm not sure precisely what divergence would be needed to achieve this. Essentially I'm wondering-as a hypothetical-what a General less prone to caution than George McClellan might have made out of Lee's Lost orders. Given the limitations inherent in logistics-how much worse a defeat could the Army of Northern Virginia have suffered during the Maryland campaign after the Union Army received the orders.

Unfortunately-I don't know how to effectively replace George McClellan in time for such a response without sounding arbitrary-and obviously the divergence has to remove him from the picture somehow-because you can't change who and what McClellan was. Let's say-for some reason-some manner of fatal accident befalls him in early September 1862-or at least an accident that effectively removes him from command-or he is otherwise not in command when the Lost Orders are lost.

Someone else takes command of the Army of the Potomac who is at least marginally more aggressive than McClellan was.

Lee's orders are still lost-and delivered to this hypothetical replacement for McClellan.

Given logistics-how quickly could the Army of the Potomac make use of what they had discovered-and how much damage could they reasonably inflict upon the Army of Northern Virginia as a consequence? How large of a disaster could be caused by Union Discovery of the Lost Orders? If logistically there was no way for a faster response to occur-what is the worst plausible outcome of Antietam for Lee?

Again I realize that I'm probably straining plausibility a bit in removing McClellan and still allowing the Lost Orders to be discovered-but I'm unsure how else to create the precondition here of the most aggressive response to the Lost Orders that was logistically feasible for the Union Army to undertake.

 

[jahenders]

I don't think it's too hard. Lincoln was already very frustrated by McClellan by mid 1862 and created the Army of Virginia under Pope while McClellan moved VERY slowly up the Penninsula. Pope's army then fought several engagements and he was fairly aggressive most of the time. He was fired after losing at 2nd Bull Run in August. If Pope had managed to win 2nd Bull Run, Lincoln would probably have kept that Army of Virginia as a separate unit and reinforced it. If so, it would have been Pope and that army that faced lee in September. Pope clearly wasn't perfect, but he was more aggressive than McClellan and might have made quicker and better use of Lee's situation.

Even if Pope still loses 2nd Bull Run, it's not a given that Lincoln will put McClellan back in charge up North. The majority of Lincoln's cabinet opposed it stating that "it is our deliberate opinion that, at this time, it is not safe to entrust to Major General McClellan the command of any Army of the United States." So, if Lincoln fires Pope and doesn't bring McClellan North, they'll appoint someone else who will then face Lee -- possibly Burnside.

 

[CalBear]

Worst?

Grant or Sherman are in command of the Army of the Potomac. The ANV will never get back over the River.

War's over in a week.

I can't come up with a way to get this in place, but worst case? This is it.

 

[wcv215]

Worst?

Grant or Sherman are in command of the Army of the Potomac. The ANV will never get back over the River.

War's over in a week.

Not Grant or Sherman, but you might be able to leave George Thomas in the East, say before the war he doesn't apply to the VMI, so there is a bit less suspicion on him than OTL. Things proceed roughly as OTL in Virginia, until Lincoln tires of McClellan again and fires him, as Lee's advance starts. Lincoln, not having many particularly good choices flips a coin (metaphorically) and settles on Thomas over Burnside as the new commander. Thomas as was his style builds a careful strategy and smashes Lee in Maryland. The ANV makes it back across into Virginia, but has suffered heavy losses and isn't capable of stopping the Union Army when they pursue.

Or alternatively he wins, the CSA achieves independence and rapidly descends into failed state status. One or the other.

 

[Johnrankins]

Not Grant or Sherman, but you might be able to leave George Thomas in the East, say before the war he doesn't apply to the VMI, so there is a bit less suspicion on him than OTL. Things proceed roughly as OTL in Virginia, until Lincoln tires of McClellan again and fires him, as Lee's advance starts. Lincoln, not having many particularly good choices flips a coin (metaphorically) and settles on Thomas over Burnside as the new commander. Thomas as was his style builds a careful strategy and smashes Lee in Maryland. The ANV makes it back across into Virginia, but has suffered heavy losses and isn't capable of stopping the Union Army when they pursue.

Or alternatively he wins, the CSA achieves independence and rapidly descends into failed state status. One or the other.

If Lee goes against Thomas he is going to be beaten, badly. He might get home again, unlike with Grant or Sherman, but his army will be wrecked.

 

[Glass Onion]

If McClellan is not reappointed wouldn't there be morale and organizational problems for the Union Army? That's why I proposed the "falls off his horse" scenario-because I'm not sure the extent to which not having him return would weaken the morale and organizational strength of the Union Army.

How would say-Ambrose Burnside have operated in the period in between his appointment and when the Lost Orders were found historically. Would no McClellan return dramatically alter Lee's plans?

Admittedly-not having the Lost Order issue butterflied requires some hand waving-but how precisely would a less cautious General than George McClellan respond to those Orders? What logistically speaking could be done given constraints on transport etc. and how much damage would the ANV suffer as a consequence? What-reasonably speaking-could another General have done with the conditions that produced Antietam that McClellan did not do?

 

[Indigo]

I'm not sure why it would be impossible for Sherman to be in the east considering he was at first bull run? But really with any Union commander somewhere between Pope and McClellan in turns of cautiousness Lee is going to be far worse off. If Shiloh isn't such a PR disaster and Grant is brought east instead of Pope that could very do it. Lee's whole Maryland Campaign was a high risk gamble; without someone as risk averse as McClellan who could barely take advantage of opportunities when they existed, Lee is probably going to risk his army being mostly destroyed or captured on the way back.

 

[Glass Onion]

If Lincoln does not reappoint McClellan-who is the best positioned candidate to take his place?

How intelligent of a General are we apt to be looking at?

Assuming that a more aggressive response to the Lost Orders was indeed logistically possible-where is the ensuing battle likely to take place? What does the rest of the war look like following such a more aggressive Union Army in September 1862? Assuming we're looking at a scenario where the ANV is crushed but survives to retreat back to Virginia how long could Lee's weakened Army hold out in Virginia?

 

[wcv215]

If Lincoln does not reappoint McClellan-who is the best positioned candidate to take his place?

How intelligent of a General are we apt to be looking at?

Assuming that a more aggressive response to the Lost Orders was indeed logistically possible-where is the ensuing battle likely to take place? What does the rest of the war look like following such a more aggressive Union Army in September 1862? Assuming we're looking at a scenario where the ANV is crushed but survives to retreat back to Virginia how long could Lee's weakened Army hold out in Virginia?

If Thomas or Sherman, IMO the most likely to be able to do this and have changes which put them in the east Lee is doomed. If his campaign leaves the ANV with mauled forces they will be pushed back when Sherman or Thomas pursue. Even if they are replaced for not doing well enough (not likely IMO) the other officers of the AotP should be able to take Richmond quickly, mid-1863 at the latest. It would probably be hardest if Lee is left in charge, and given any reinforcements that OTL might have gone to the Mississippi campaign. However, that just leaves Grant facing even less opposition while he cuts the CSA in two.

 

[Glass Onion]

How would removing Sherman or Thomas from the West have impacted the Union's prospects there? If one or the other is never there in the West that presumably will have an impact.

What would be happening in Washington? Presumably Lincoln even more likely to issue the Emancipation Proclamation. However, if Lee is crushed in September, and Richmond falls no latter than April 1863 then the Confederacy might well be defeated before the Lincoln administration has the Congressional votes to abolish slavery-,which raises the risk of preserving the institution in the long run and undoing the impact of the proclamation after the war. That's the sad thing about earlier Union victory, the consequence might be the preservation of slavery. Or would such a massive victory alter the margins in Congress such that the Lincoln administration might be able to persuade Congress to pass an Abolition amendment in 1863?

 

[Not Henry G.]

Didn't Lee invade the North in part because he knew McClellan was in charge of the AotP and was counting on his slowness? If a different general was leading the North he might have done a different invasion, if he invaded at all.
Say what you will about Lee, for the most part he tried his stunts because he had a grasp of the enemy commander's personality and not just for the hell of it.

 

[Arnold d.c]

Robert E Lee's Maryland campaign was one of Lee's worst performances in the war. He split his army into five different pieces which nearly enabled the destruction of each of those pieces in detail; in fact, Union VI Corps commander William Franklin seized Crampton's Gap, and was poised to crush at least one of Jackson's divisions and save Harper's Ferry, but he managed to convince himself he was outnumbered instead.

So had VI corps had a more aggressive commander, Lee loses another division and Harper's Ferry is saved. Lee accomplishes none of his objectives.

 

[Arnold d.c]

If Lincoln does not reappoint McClellan-who is the best positioned candidate to take his place

McClellan was never replaced as the Army of the Potomac's commander. Gen. Pope was in charge of the Army of Northern Virginia and was provided III and V corps of the Army of the Potomac.

If McClellan was replaced, the most likely replacement would be Sumner. However, considering his performance at Antietam nothing provides me confidence that he could lead an army.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

McClellan was never replaced as the Army of the Potomac's commander. Gen. Pope was in charge of the Army of Northern Virginia and was provided III and V corps of the Army of the Potomac.

When Pope was dismissed, the Army of Virginia was abolished, and its constituents were returned to McClellan's command. The troops regarded this as "restoring" McClellan.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

I'm not sure precisely what divergence would be needed to achieve this. Essentially I'm wondering-as a hypothetical-what a General less prone to caution than George McClellan might have made out of Lee's Lost orders.

You don't need to go there.

Assume everything the same up to the battle of Antietam.

The divergence is that McClellan orders Burnside to attack three hours earlier (OTL the orders only arrived at 10 AM).

Burnside gets across the creek and by 1 PM is driving into Sharpsburg from the south.

Butterflies from this are that in the morning fighting, XII Corps commander Mansfield (on the Union right flank) is not wounded (mortally) and out of action, nor is I Corps commander Hooker. These two corps had been chewed up in the morning fighting, though inflicting much loss on the Confederates, but lacking their commanders, did not rally and move forward.

So at 1 PM the Confederate left flank is under renewed pressure, while the Union II Corps batters the Confederate center, and then Burnside's IX Corps arrives from the south. Lee throws his last reserve (Anderson's division) south to check Burnside, but Richardson's division of II Corps breaks through at the "sunken road" (OTL, Anderson held the "sunken road for an hour inflicting heavy casualties). The Confederates fall back to Sharpsburg. The Union attack stalls.

However, the fresh Union VI Corps under Franklin comes up behind the II and XII Corps. (OTL, Franklin wanted to attack, but Sumner (demoralized by heavy casualties to the II Corps) was the only other corps commander on the field. He was senior to Franklin and ordered him to hold back. McClellan came forward and backed Sumner.) ATL, Sumner is less demoralized, and Mansfield supports Franklin. Franklin attacks. and the Confederate position collapses at about 2:30 PM.

Stonewall Jackson is killed in a futile attempt to rally a rear guard; Longstreet is wounded and captured; Lee is wounded but escapes.

Total Confederate losses are 17,000-21,000 men (instead of OTL's 10,000-13,000); over half of the engaged Confederates.

That's about as bad as it gets for Lee.

 

[Darknick]

Would losing Jackson and Longstreet crush Rebel moral?

 

[Arnold d.c]

Snip

Where is Porter's V corps? Other than that, it's a very plausible destruction of Lee's army.

 

[Anaxagoras]

I don't think you need to remove McClellan from command in order to have a POD to smash the AoNV. As stated above, if Burnside's orders had arrived earlier, the situation for Lee would have been disastrous. And if McClellan had ordered his reserve corps to launch a final attack on the center of Lee's line, there is little doubt that it would have been shattered. Lee's army would have been all but destroyed, the war might have been over by the spring of 1863, and Robert E. Lee would have gone down in history as a rash and foolish general who got lucky at 2nd Manassas but otherwise did a disastrous job.

 

[thekingsguard]

Really, so long as you had a commander with more stones than McClellan willing to persue and rout the ANV as they pull out of Maryland, much less a commander who would make much smarter use of the Lost Orders than he did, you'd have the potential to utterly wipe the ANV from the map, radically altering the course of the war to the Union's advantage.

There is a good reason failing to do so got McClellan sacked - with the Army of Northern Virginia practically gift-wrapped for the Union, nearly any other commander would have seen them destroyed, rather than merely defeated.

 

[jahenders]

If Lincoln does not reappoint McClellan-who is the best positioned candidate to take his place?

How intelligent of a General are we apt to be looking at?

Assuming that a more aggressive response to the Lost Orders was indeed logistically possible-where is the ensuing battle likely to take place? What does the rest of the war look like following such a more aggressive Union Army in September 1862? Assuming we're looking at a scenario where the ANV is crushed but survives to retreat back to Virginia how long could Lee's weakened Army hold out in Virginia?

It would seem to be Burnside or possibly Hooker