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With a POD in 1941 how badly can Operation Barbarossa, the Nazi German invasion of the Soviet Union, go for the Nazis? Can they end up surrendering the war in 1941? 1942?

Presumably from January 1st Stalin could become convinced that there would be an invasion this year, perhaps a pod is one of the defectors makes a better case and convinces someone who decide to convince Stalin.

If the Soviets look too strong by June would Hitler cancel the invasion or is he trapped into doing so?
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