Worse Yugoslav Wars

MSZ

Banned
i recall reading that the austrian army was mobilized to the slovene border.

there could maybe be some incident to bring them into the war too.

This i doubt. Austria is officially neutral, like Switzerland. It is not even part of NATO.
 
Another thing: would Turkey try their luck in helping the Albanians and Bosnians in the Balkans?

Not with actual military intervention (except possibly volunteers), but I'm pretty sure they were pro-Bosnian in OTL. And they are traditionally pro-Albanian.
 
with a war on their border threatening to spill over.

when someone shoots at you you ask questions later.

There wasn't much of a war in Slovenia. After a few days, Croatia declared independence, so the Serbs couldn't fight Slovenia without going through Croatia, a far tougher opponent.

And besides, both Austria and Germany were pro-Slovenian independence. Austria has lots of commercial interests in Slovenia. I think I read somewhere that they pretty much run Slovenian media.
 
I can guess that there may be more minor nations getting involved in the Yugoslav Wars that aren't part of the Balkans. On the other hand, Turkey could be distracted from the Kosovo War if Ocalan was executed and the Kurds launch an uprising, demanding autonomy within Turkey's territory similar to Kosovo.
 

Angel Heart

Banned
I don't know how to include Romania and Hungary into this as both the local Romanians and Hungarians in Serbia never had a militant seperatist and terrorist movement like the Albanians did (at least none I would have heard of) and there was no reason for hostility between those minorities in question and the Serb government. I see no reason why Serbia would go after her Hungarian and Romanian minority.

I could see things escalating in post-Oluja Bosnia if Slobo decides to send the VJ there and save the Republika Srpska if things really go down the crapper but even him sending the VJ would be a big if.
As for the VRS, maybe I'm wrong as my extensive background research hasn't yet reached 1995 yet, but AFAIK the VRS was going for a strategic retreat and massing in Banja Luka. The battle for Banja Luka might have been really nasty. I think it may have gone either way with either the HV/ArBiH capturing Banja Luka or failing to do so with eventually the war being stuck in a stalemate if the VRS manages to reorganize by time for the until the next peace talks. Besides if I am not mistaken NATO even threatened to bomb the ArBiH if they continued their advance towards Banja Luka.
How much things escalate depends on how much the warring parties are willing to ignore the threats of NATO and the international community.

As for Kosovo there has been a lot of talk about a potential ground aggression of NATO though personally I do not see a reason why they would do that. The bombing campaign was enough. While the damage NATO inflicted on the VJ was minimal, the damage to the civilian infrastructure was devastating. Slobo capitulating was only a matter of time as he couldn't have afforded Serbia to be turned into an economic wasteland like North Korea.
 
I don't know how to include Romania and Hungary into this as both the local Romanians and Hungarians in Serbia never had a militant seperatist and terrorist movement like the Albanians did (at least none I would have heard of) and there was no reason for hostility between those minorities in question and the Serb government. I see no reason why Serbia would go after her Hungarian and Romanian minority.

Absolutely agree with this, can't see any way how things violently escalate between the Hungarian and Romanian minorities and the Serb government, let alone between the actual countries themselves. As for the Russian/Turkish official involvements, that's borderline ASB.

Angel Heart said:
I could see things escalating in post-Oluja Bosnia if Slobo decides to send the VJ there and save the Republika Srpska if things really go down the crapper but even him sending the VJ would be a big if.
As for the VRS, maybe I'm wrong as my extensive background research hasn't yet reached 1995 yet, but AFAIK the VRS was going for a strategic retreat and massing in Banja Luka. The battle for Banja Luka might have been really nasty. I think it may have gone either way with either the HV/ArBiH capturing Banja Luka or failing to do so with eventually the war being stuck in a stalemate if the VRS manages to reorganize by time for the until the next peace talks. Besides if I am not mistaken NATO even threatened to bomb the ArBiH if they continued their advance towards Banja Luka.
How much things escalate depends on how much the warring parties are willing to ignore the threats of NATO and the international community.

This could get things nastier, but the chances are probably not too big. Slobo was looking for a way out by this stage, and sending in the VJ ran completely counter to what he was trying to do at the time. Even if he had seriously contemplated it, VJ was a shadow of its previous incarnate, and the sanctions had severely restricted its operational capability. If I remember correctly, during the discussions about possible military help to RSK during Oluja, General Perisic told Slobo that if it had to be combat operational, VJ only had enough fuel to last them 2-3 days. And then you'd have the problem of mobilisation in Serbia, which probably wouldn't go smoothly and at full capability.

The key thing for VRS was how long and how intensively the HV decided to hang around in Bosnia. Against ABiH and HVO, VRS was well capable of holding up and turning the rest of the war into a protracted slog with little frontline movement, mainly due to its technical superiority. With the collapse of RSK, this technical superiority was bound to dwindle over time, but would give enough time to the RS leadership to get perhaps get a favourable political solution to end the war. The game is much changed with HV in the picture, which in 1995 was a modern army in terms of military doctrine and tactics, and pretty well equipped. If they stay in Bosnia, and NATO gives them a green light to keep going, the fall of Banjaluka and the rest of Bosanska Krajina is probably going to happen. General Gotovina, commander of HV forces in Bosnia, estimated that he could take Banjaluka within 48 hours - and even if that was overly optimistic, I think it still happens sooner rather than later. But, like you pointed out, NATO was dead keen on this not happening, and made this very clear to both the Croatian and Bosnian governments.

One way I could potentially see things escalating more than they did in OTL is the spread of the war into the Sandzak region between 1992-1995, which could in turn lead to an earlier war in Kosovo too. This would require ABiH to be stronger than in OTL, where they are able to hold and expand their enclaves in eastern Bosnia, and have regular (of course, small, and probably clandestine) incursions into the Sandzak region of both Serbia and Montenegro in an attempt to foment a local rebellion there. If they succeed, we'd probably be looking at possible guerilla-type warfare there, and that could influence the thinking in Kosovo (there may be even some contact and co-operation between the two), leading to an earlier start there. Of course, this kind of scenario causes butterflies for how the war is going in Bosnia and Croatia.

Angel Dark said:
As for Kosovo there has been a lot of talk about a potential ground aggression of NATO though personally I do not see a reason why they would do that. The bombing campaign was enough. While the damage NATO inflicted on the VJ was minimal, the damage to the civilian infrastructure was devastating. Slobo capitulating was only a matter of time as he couldn't have afforded Serbia to be turned into an economic wasteland like North Korea.

Yep, I agree with this too.
 
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