Worse Hainan Island Incident

Anaxagoras

Banned
IOTL, in April of 2001, an American surveillance aircraft observing China was damaged in a mid-air collision with a Chinese interceptor off Hainan Island. It made a forced landing on Chinese territory, where the crew were held and interrogated for several days. Eventually the crew was released after the U.S. State Department issued a letter of apology.

What if the crew had not been able to land successfully and, instead, the plane crashed, killin everyone on board? Furthermore, what if the frantic last-moment communications heard from the crew led the Americans to believe that the plane had been shot down by the Chinese?
 

Bearcat

Banned
Nothing

would have happened. The Soviets shot down many US planes during the Cold War. It didn't start WW3.

It probably has only a minor effect on long term relations. Most of what effect there is, disappears on September 11th.
 

Bearcat

Banned
Neither side

wants a war here. The PRC might wish to use it to fan the flames of nationalism - to a limited extent - but any more serious outcome is unlikely, and will require major miscalculations, miscommunication, and really crappy luck.
 
would have happened. The Soviets shot down many US planes during the Cold War. It didn't start WW3.

It probably has only a minor effect on long term relations. Most of what effect there is, disappears on September 11th.

I agree. If you had a second POD of 9/11 happening, this might be more significant. I once did my own mini-timeline along a similar theme in response to an AH challenge. I think that if you took away 9/11, the Chinese would end up being the American government-endorsed bogeyman of the '00s (a job that went vacant for most of the '90s after the collapse of the Soviet Union). That's certainly what it seemed like was going to happen after the Hainan incident and before 9/11. And they would have been perfect for the role. The right would be riled up against them because they're the last communist superpower (and pretty much starting to come into their own) and the left would be angry over the occupation of Tibet.

That said, I would also assume that neither side really wants a war. Americans may be angry if they thought the Chinese shot down one of their planes, but the Chinese will say and do whatever it takes to keep a war from happening (as long as they can save some face).
 
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