Don't forget the Cumans are still around occupying most of OTLs Ukraine, and they were pretty tough yeggs themselves. The demographic weight is still going to be in what OTL is southern Russia proper: they'll probably be able to push out the Cumans once they get proper organized gunpowder armies going, but that's still a few centuries away at this point. A unified Russia might be able to at least occupy right-bank-of-the-Dnieper ukraine before then, but would include powerful northern states such as Vladimir, Novgorod, Smolensk...
1. Volga Bulgaria might remain a viable state even though often a tributary to whoever occupies Zalesye.
2. The Cumans were more or less a spent force as an existential danger by 1200. However, they were rapidly becoming hugely important in intra-Rus politics as mercenaries and in-laws. About half of the Cuman leaders at Kalka were Christian, judging by the names, for example.
You may well get a Rus that's in practice decentralised but ideologically united (constant shifting of the Grand Princely title from one major figure to another, with the title still having meaning), with a ring of formidable Turcic vassals (Cumans), tributaries (Volga Bulgaria) and sub-nations (Cherniye Klobuki) limiting its eastern expansion. Russians may never even settle the Wild Fields until very late because of that.
Further, there may still be "Cumans" in Bulgaria, Georgia, Alania (may remain pretty prominent sans Batu et al.) and Hungary as per OTL, though the balance of how many and where exactly is hard to predict.
Rus' most obvious expansion is into the Baltics (Smolensk, Novgorod, Pskov, Polotsk/Vytebsk/Minsk, Grodno/Novogrudak, Galich-Volyn are all possible contenders there).