What if the allies won at Gallipoli during World War I?
WHat would happen to Turkey? Or Russia?
I'm not at all sure that the suggestion put forward by the US Ambassador that Istanbul would fall just because the Entente fleet arrived off it's shores. If all they do is force the Straits, and then the Bosporus, all that happens is that they have to do it again going south, against even tougher defences at the north end of the Bosporus.
If the landings succeed, then they have to clear the entire peninsular, and the cross to the Asian side and clear that back to at least field artillery range. Then they have to go and take at least the land around Istanbul and along both side of the Bosporus, plus the northern defences. If they succeed at this they can run supplies through to the Russians, and they cut the Turkish armies in half. In this situation I would expect the Turks to leave holding forces only against the Russians on either side of the Black Sea and attempt to crush the salient through their midst. If that failed they pretty much would have to capitulate, but if the succeed, which is by no means of the question, it would be a major disaster for the Entente.
That wouldn't cut the Ottoman armies in half; it would just deprive them of Thrace. If the defense of the capital looked hopeless, the army would just evacuate with the government to Anatolia and say "Bring it."
But it would dramatically increase the fighting power of Russia.
All these scenarios take for granted that Gallipoli only failed due to military mistakes on the part of the British and ignore that the Ottomans made none, and had a much superior army in 1915, in terms of training, experience, organization, leadership, and doctrine. I don't think it was actually possible for the Entente to win this. Despite overwhelming numbers and massive naval gunfire support, they failed.
The British failed to defeat the Ottomans in any major campaign until the last year of the war, and were miserably beaten in several... there is a reason for that.
The British failed to defeat the Ottomans in any major campaign until the last year of the war, and were miserably beaten in several... there is a reason for that.
But it would dramatically increase the fighting power of Russia.
Not until the Ottomans had been driven out of artillery range of the Bosporous. Light artillery may not do much to a merchant ship, but the heavy stuff could as long as the Germans and Austro-Hungarians can transport shells across the Black Sea.