World War II in Europe Best Case Scenario

Reading the recent discussion of a 1938 Germany invasion of Czechoslovakia and the reviews of the new Harry Turtledove book on Different Worlds reminded me of an AH spun by a friend and fellow history major. This is the only time he every broached the subject of AH. He like most people can think in terms of AH when it effects them personally. He was proud of his Slovak heritage and he new a way that the old country ( This was before the velvet divorce) could have avoided German occupation. He only thought about military victory but I will add events that make his AH possible.
The P.O.D. is in the second week of September of 1938, Hitler makes an alliance with Hungary and Poland and begins sending military advisors to his new allies, who are mobilizing their forces. These moves show that Hitler has more in mind then uniting the oppressed residents of the Sudetenland with their fellow Germans. He is obviously preparing for a full scale invasion of Czechoslovakia. Chamberlain realizing that public and parliamentary support for a policy of appeasement cancels his plans to negotiate a peace settlement. On October 1, 1938 Germany,Poland and Hungary declare war on Czechoslovakia and begin their attack. The Czech military holds of the invaders in the early hours of the war. Later in the day, the Czechoslovakian Air Force launches a massive series of air raids in Germany effectively destroying the Lufftwafe. On October 3, after the expiration of the forty eight hour deadline Britain and France declare war. These new allies provide little help to Czechoslovakia, but none is needed. The lack of air support cripples the invading forces. On October 4th both Hungary and Poland sue for Peace. On October 8th Hitler is deposed in a military coup and the new government asks for armistice. So what happens next?
 
Reading the recent discussion of a 1938 Germany invasion of Czechoslovakia and the reviews of the new Harry Turtledove book on Different Worlds reminded me of an AH spun by a friend and fellow history major. This is the only time he every broached the subject of AH. He like most people can think in terms of AH when it effects them personally. He was proud of his Slovak heritage and he new a way that the old country ( This was before the velvet divorce) could have avoided German occupation. He only thought about military victory but I will add events that make his AH possible.
The P.O.D. is in the second week of September of 1938, Hitler makes an alliance with Hungary and Poland and begins sending military advisors to his new allies, who are mobilizing their forces. These moves show that Hitler has more in mind then uniting the oppressed residents of the Sudetenland with their fellow Germans. He is obviously preparing for a full scale invasion of Czechoslovakia. Chamberlain realizing that public and parliamentary support for a policy of appeasement cancels his plans to negotiate a peace settlement. On October 1, 1938 Germany,Poland and Hungary declare war on Czechoslovakia and begin their attack. The Czech military holds of the invaders in the early hours of the war. Later in the day, the Czechoslovakian Air Force launches a massive series of air raids in Germany effectively destroying the Lufftwafe. On October 3, after the expiration of the forty eight hour deadline Britain and France declare war. These new allies provide little help to Czechoslovakia, but none is needed. The lack of air support cripples the invading forces. On October 4th both Hungary and Poland sue for Peace. On October 8th Hitler is deposed in a military coup and the new government asks for armistice. So what happens next?

:rolleyes:

What comes next? Space aliens appear in the orbit, sign an alliance with Czechoslovakia and wipe out Germany? :)

Sorry, but this is TOTALLY unrealistic. This is not an alternate history, this is pure fantasy. Czechoslovak Air Force was obsolete and small. It had many experienced pilots so it could score some hits against the Luftwaffe if it concentrated its efforts to defend major cities, but that would be it. Germany would have a total air superiority over most of Czechoslovakia.

As for Poland and Hungary: neither would get involved from the beginning. Hungary was too afraid of the Little Entente allies of Czechoslovakia (Romania and Yugoslavia) and Poland was simply waiting how the situation unfolds. If the Czechoslovaks were losing badly, they'd occupy some parts of Czech Silesia.

Without allies, Czechoslovakia had no hope on winning. It could hold for weeks, perhaps more than a month if the army managed to retreat to Slovakia, but nothing more.
 
The Czech air force was not obselete, and it was not small 1938. The best and brightest of the Luftwaffe is still in Spain at this time, and their experiences have not been incorporated into the Luftwaffe yet. Nevertheless, the Luftwaffe is still much larger and a bit more modern. The Czech air force wiping out the Luftwaffe is completely ASB.

Poland would not ally with Germany in this. They want Teschen, but they don't want to anger France over it. Besides, the Soviets and Czechoslovaks have close relations, the Poles will probably not risk Soviet action while they are engaged against the Czechs. The Poles will sit it out and grab territory from the loser (they want parts of Silesia too).

Hungary is just out of rejecting their version of the Versailles Treaty and their army is very weak at this time.

Czechoslovak air force at the time of Munich:

21 fighter squadrons (Avia B.534) ~252 planes in the frontline.
22 recon/light bomber squadrons (Avia B.100 and Letov S.328) ~262 planes in the frontline.
8 bomb squadrons (Avia B.71, license produced SB-2) ~72 planes in the frontline.
6 heavy bomb squadrons (Bloch MB.200). ~54 planes in the frontline.

There were reserves for reach frontline squadron of about 20-50% of the frontline strenght (planes only, no pilots) and quite a few older planes in reserve in depots.
 
I would agree that the Poles would probably stay out of the war but the soviets could only reach Czechoslovakia if Poland or Romania would give them transit rights. Neither country would do that. I do believe that the Czechs would stand a chance as its army was well trained and equipped. It would inflict serous loses on the on the German army.
 
I would agree that the Poles would probably stay out of the war but the soviets could only reach Czechoslovakia if Poland or Romania would give them transit rights. Neither country would do that. I do believe that the Czechs would stand a chance as its army was well trained and equipped. It would inflict serous loses on the on the German army.

Serious but still not enough. And the sad part about it was the original plan was to use the defenses to stall until the country would be fully mobilized and the french/soviets helped out.

Hey on the bright side if there are a lot of german losses than they might have to put ww2 on hold.
 
The difference in strenght is not as big as you might think.

The Czechoslovaks had a total of 42 division mobilized Autumn 1938.

2 Fast divisions (mixed cavalry and tanks).
2 Cavalry divisions (intended as Fast, but there were not enough tanks for all 4 of them, 150 LT-28 were on order though, ans Skoda had good production capabilities).
1 Motorized division.
1 Semi-motorized division.
2 Mountain divisions.
34 Infantry divisions.

There were also a rather strong home guard, lots of strong fortifications, hundreds of heavy artillery pieces, a rather strong air force and terrain not very well suited to Blitzkrieg. Add that the best and brightest of the Heer and the Luftwaffe, with (especially for the Luftwaffe) the larger part of the most modern aircraft. There's not many Bf 109D in service yet, the C has only 4x7,92mm MGs.

The Germans commited 52 divisions (of which 8 were in reserve).

7 armoured (3 Panzer, 4 Leichte), but it is almost exclusivly Pz I, with some Pz II in this. I don't think there's more than 80-100 tanks per division to go around either. A lot of Pz Is are in Spain.
5 Motorized divisions.
3 Mountain divisions.
29 Infantry divisions.
8 Landwehr (militia) divisions.

There were not enough modern MGs, artillery and AT guns to go round for all these divisions. Especially the Landwehr would probably use old hidden away ww1 equipment. This is far from the Heer that invaded France 1940. There are no Spanish and Polish experienced to draw from, no Czechoslovak equipment and using their war industry and designs for more than a year.

At this time, Germany was the 5th industrial power in the world, Czechoslovakia was the 7th. Romania and Czechoslovakia had very friendly relations, and Romania and Yugoslavia were committed to containing any Hungarian expansionism, so they would probably intervene if the Hungarians tried anything. Neither Romania nor Poland would allow transit of Soviet troops, but supplies and weapons from the Soviets and French would probably be allowed through Romania.

It would not be a cake-wall for the Germans.
 
Seems I was wrong. There were raoughly 180 Pz IIs and maybe 1000 Pz Is to go around for those 7 divisions (if they strip the west and east absolutely free of armour, and have none for training units).

180 Pz I and 20 Pz II for each division sounds about realistic.

The Czechs had 77 armoured cars, 74 tankettes and 398 gun-armed tanks (LT-34 and LT-35) plus perhaps two dozen prototypes. A further 151 gun-armed tanks (LT-38) were on order.
 
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