World War II breaks out in March 1939

CaliGuy

Banned
What if, in response to Hitler's occupation of Czechia, Britain and France declared war on Nazi Germany?

Also, for what it's worth, the Munich Agreement has already peacefully given the Sudetenland to Nazi Germany; thus, the remainder of Czechoslovakia would be completely vulnerable to a German attack.

Anyway, how would World War II have went in this TL and what would countries such as Poland and Hungary have done in this TL?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, in this scenario, wouldn't the Soviet Union also fight for Czechoslovakia? After all, wasn't the Soviet Union willing to fight for Czechoslovakia if France also was?

If so, is Poland, Romania, or both of them getting invaded by the Soviet Union? (After all, the Soviet Union needs to invade at least one of them in order to actually get to Czechoslovakia.)
 
The majority of Czechoslovakia will fall within a week. The USSR won't have time to react to something like this, considering they were deep into the Purges and whatnot.

Sitzkrieg will probably play out more or less the same as OTL. If the French wanted to invade Germany, they would have done it in 1936 when Hitler started really breaking Versailles.

Hungary will probably join the Axis fast if they are promised the easternmost chunk of Czechoslovakia, and Poland has a pretty good chance too if Hitler keeps quiet about the Danzig corridor (either wanting Czech lands or getting invaded by Stalin in the summer).

After that depends on if (and how) Hitler decides to deal with France. A Schlieffen rerun could be countered, staying out of Belgium means the war just doesn't flare up. An alt-Ardennes plan is also possible.

Russia won't be a serious factor until 1941 at the earliest, but Germany won't be strong enough to knock them down alone (especially if there's a two front war). By 1941, butterflies are becoming hard to measure.

- BNC
 
It forces the Brits to accept a Soviet/French alliance. This war starts at the same time the two were discussing a alliance & there is little chance of the anti Communists vetoing it as a crisis develops.
 
...

....and Poland has a pretty good chance too if Hitler keeps quiet about the Danzig corridor (either wanting Czech lands or getting invaded by Stalin in the summer).

....

The dilemma of Poland is this; Hitler had long ago determined the complete destruction of the Polish state & nation was In Germanies best interest. The Poles understood this & the leaders with any sense were forced to look at the long term implications of whatever they decided.
 
The dilemma of Poland is this; Hitler had long ago determined the complete destruction of the Polish state & nation was In Germanies best interest. The Poles understood this & the leaders with any sense were forced to look at the long term implications of whatever they decided.

At some point, Poland will be invaded by either Germany or Russia. They will simply be thrust into the alliance that is opposed to the one attacking them, out of necessity if nothing else. A bit like how Churchill hated the USSR and still ended up aligned with them: they'll deal with the consequences once the immediate threat has passed.

I don't think even Hitler would be stupid enough to invade an active ally just because he wrote something into Mein Kampf 20 years earlier.

- BNC
 

nbcman

Donor
Even if the Soviets didn't fight for Czechoslovakia, the Nazi-Soviet relationship would have remained bad and there would not have been a trade agreement signed in August 1939 which means German imports would be dramatically reduced:
800px-GermanImports_USSRPerCent.jpg


Also, the Germans couldn't pull virtually their entire army to the West as they did IOTL after defeating Poland with the presence of an unfriendly Soviet Union to their East. Probably the Nazi's would attempt an attack in the West but it would be weaker and the WAllies would probably contain the attack. The Germans would either choose to slowly strangle under blockade with the risk of being overrun by the Soviets or to overthrow the Nazis and request an armistice.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The majority of Czechoslovakia will fall within a week. The USSR won't have time to react to something like this, considering they were deep into the Purges and whatnot.

Yes, but they could still invade Poland and/or Romania and thus try to begin the process of liberating Czechoslovakia.

Sitzkrieg will probably play out more or less the same as OTL. If the French wanted to invade Germany, they would have done it in 1936 when Hitler started really breaking Versailles.

The Germans would have to worry about the Russians in the East in this TL; thus, would they have enough troops, equipment, and resources for a successful Western blitzkrieg?

Hungary will probably join the Axis fast if they are promised the easternmost chunk of Czechoslovakia, and Poland has a pretty good chance too if Hitler keeps quiet about the Danzig corridor (either wanting Czech lands or getting invaded by Stalin in the summer).

Joining the Axis means risking a Soviet conquest and occupation, though; indeed, I seriously doubt that either Poland or Hungary wants to risk losing its independence.

After that depends on if (and how) Hitler decides to deal with France. A Schlieffen rerun could be countered, staying out of Belgium means the war just doesn't flare up. An alt-Ardennes plan is also possible.

What type of alt-Ardennes plan are you thinking of here?

Russia won't be a serious factor until 1941 at the earliest, but Germany won't be strong enough to knock them down alone (especially if there's a two front war). By 1941, butterflies are becoming hard to measure.

- BNC

If Germany fails to knock out France, though, isn't Germany pretty much doomed?

It forces the Brits to accept a Soviet/French alliance. This war starts at the same time the two were discussing a alliance & there is little chance of the anti Communists vetoing it as a crisis develops.

Agreed.

The dilemma of Poland is this; Hitler had long ago determined the complete destruction of the Polish state & nation was In Germanies best interest. The Poles understood this & the leaders with any sense were forced to look at the long term implications of whatever they decided.

Agreed that the Hungarians and Poles would be hesitant about joining Hitler. Thus, the Hungarians probably remain neutral. However, what would the Poles do if the Soviets invade them in order to get to Czechoslovakia? Militarily resist? Or do they try making a deal with the Soviets?

Similarly, what do the Romanians do if the Soviets invade them in order to get to Czechoslovakia?

Even if the Soviets didn't fight for Czechoslovakia, the Nazi-Soviet relationship would have remained bad and there would not have been a trade agreement signed in August 1939 which means German imports would be dramatically reduced:
800px-GermanImports_USSRPerCent.jpg


Also, the Germans couldn't pull virtually their entire army to the West as they did IOTL after defeating Poland with the presence of an unfriendly Soviet Union to their East. Probably the Nazi's would attempt an attack in the West but it would be weaker and the WAllies would probably contain the attack. The Germans would either choose to slowly strangle under blockade with the risk of being overrun by the Soviets or to overthrow the Nazis and request an armistice.

Out of curiosity--can Hitler back off and withdraw from Czechia if he sees that he's fighting a two-front war? Basically, this would be the sane thing for Hitler to do if Britain, France, and the Soviet Union will agree to end the war right afterwards.
 
Trouble is can Hitler just pull back, odds are he has to hand the Sudetenland back as well to get peace. By March 1939 he has used up all his good will/benefit of the doubt, people are not going to take his word that he will not try again, the Czechs will demand a defensible border.
 
part of any French-Soviet agreement is to allow Soviets access thru Poland (and other Eastern European states as well? Romania? Bulgaria?)

almost a declaration that Poland is insufficient to contain Nazi regime? not sure how big a betrayal the Polish leadership would consider this, they were quite committed to French-Polish alliance and true Francophiles.
 
part of any French-Soviet agreement is to allow Soviets access thru Poland (and other Eastern European states as well? Romania? Bulgaria?)

almost a declaration that Poland is insufficient to contain Nazi regime? not sure how big a betrayal the Polish leadership would consider this, they were quite committed to French-Polish alliance and true Francophiles.
The Poles may suspect they can't trust the Germans, but they're certain they can't trust the Russians. So who's the lesser evil? My money's on the Poles joining the Germans.
 
The Poles may suspect they can't trust the Germans, but they're certain they can't trust the Russians. So who's the lesser evil? My money's on the Poles joining the Germans.
Poland is not joining Germany period. By March German intentions towards Poland were already known by Polish government.
 

iVC

Donor
Army coup to depose Hitler as 'dangerous leader' who dragged the unprepared Germany into the two-fronts war seems to be imminent.

Especially after still fresh and painful Blomberg–Fritsch affair.

I think Hitler actually became really safe from the coup only after his triumph over France.
 
Even if the Soviets didn't fight for Czechoslovakia, the Nazi-Soviet relationship would have remained bad and there would not have been a trade agreement signed in August 1939 which means German imports would be dramatically reduced:
800px-GermanImports_USSRPerCent.jpg


Also, the Germans couldn't pull virtually their entire army to the West as they did IOTL after defeating Poland with the presence of an unfriendly Soviet Union to their East. Probably the Nazi's would attempt an attack in the West but it would be weaker and the WAllies would probably contain the attack. The Germans would either choose to slowly strangle under blockade with the risk of being overrun by the Soviets or to overthrow the Nazis and request an armistice.

This demonstrates the damage the USSR could contribute as a Allied state in this early war. It completes the blockade & forces Germany to the levels of industrial shortage and rationing of 1942-43 three years earlier. In this case the nazis only have Czech state to loot for food and consumer goods to sustain the good NSDAP card holders. As the blockade ramps up what can the nazis do? Take the offensive against multiple enemies to gain a bit more grain production, or a couple North Sea fishing fleets?
 
Are you sure? German-Polish non-aggression pact was denounced by Hitler only in April 1939, not March.
On 5th January Józef Beck - Polish Foreign Minister - met with Adolf Hitler in Berchtesgaden. During the meeting Hitler proposed that Danzig/Gdansk will become part of Germany, extraterritorial highway will be built through Polish Pomerania and Poland will join Anti-Komintern Pact in exchange of prolonging the non-agression pact by 25 years, building extrateritorrial road/railway through (German) Gdansk for Poland, guarantee for trade of Polish products in Gdansk.

Those proposals were repeated next day during the meeting between Ribbentrop and Józef Beck the former repeated Hitler's points.

After returning to Poland Józef Beck met with President Ignacy Mościcki and Marshal Edward Rydz-Śmigły. During meeting it was agreed that agrreing to german demands would be unacceptable as it'd turn Poland into German satelite and that such disagreement may in the end pave road to war with Germany.

In short, by January 1939 Polish government was aware of German aggressive intentions towards Poland.
 
One thing, ITTL, the Germans won't have the Pz35(t) and Pz38(t).

That means about a thousand less tanks, IIRC, and the most usefull ones in OTL Poland and French campaigns (PzIII and IV numbers were not really significants; PzI and PZII were completely obsolete)
 
One thing, ITTL, the Germans won't have the Pz35(t) and Pz38(t).

That means about a thousand less tanks, IIRC, and the most usefull ones in OTL Poland and French campaigns (PzIII and IV numbers were not really significants; PzI and PZII were completely obsolete)
Well actually they still could get hand on bunch of them. Czechoslovakia, especially Czech lands were not defensible after Munich and Czechoslovak army was not mobilized in March 1939.
However parts of Czechoslovak Army would probably manage to retreat to Poland and Romania with their armaments, parts of Czechoslovak Air Force would be very likely to retreat to Poland too.
 
On 5th January Józef Beck - Polish Foreign Minister - met with Adolf Hitler in Berchtesgaden. ...In short, by January 1939 Polish government was aware of German aggressive intentions towards Poland.
It's far less clear to me. Yes, Poland sees German desire clearly; that's not the same as "aggressive intentions".
 
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