If somehow Kaiser Wilhelm II would have not reigned over Germany, would World War I still happen?

I read somewhere that WW1 was not the result of Wilhelm II’s reign, but the result of the German army and Prussian elite having very much influence on there politics. So basically: a modern country in a pre-modern system. Is this right?

So if Wilhelm never become emperor, would the Great War still happen?
 
If somehow Kaiser Wilhelm II would have not reigned over Germany, would World War I still happen?

I read somewhere that WW1 was not the result of Wilhelm II’s reign, but the result of the German army and Prussian elite having very much influence on there politics. So basically: a modern country in a pre-modern system. Is this right?

So if Wilhelm never become emperor, would the Great War still happen?

Without Wilhelm II we're unlikely to see a naval race with Great Britain. Those resources go into the army instead. There's a good chance Britain stays neutral in this situation. If there's still a WW I analogue, you could get France + Russia vs Germany + Austria-Hungary (and possibly Italy and the Ottoman Empire too). That would be a very different WW I than the one we got, and probably much shorter too. Britain might still want to intervene for the sake of the balance of power, but you need a casus belli for that and the Germans would be stupid to give them one. So we see neutral but pro-Entente Britain financing and preferring them in international trade over the Central Powers. I don't think that'd be enough though.

Another option, however, is that if Britain isn't challenged in naval terms by a German naval build-up, Russia and Britain never reconcile. The Great Game subsequently continues. That might actually drive Britain into Germany's arms. In that case France and Russia would do best to avoid war at all costs, though any colonial incident like Fashoda could still set off a war.
 
Last edited:
First, this is premised on how strong of a monarchy you believe Germany possessed. In other words, how little weight you give to the Chancellor, the Reichstag, Bundesrat and other power centers. Frankly I believe too much power is given to the Kaiser in most discussions and this is based on the notion that Germany was more absolute than it was, dismisses the federal and democratic and limited form of monarchy Germany in fact possessed and repeats too much the wartime propaganda that makes Wilhelm out to be both bully, tyrant, fool and warmonger. Albeit, Wilhelm was a touch erratic, insecure and impressionable. In counter I can find many examples that show Wilhelm was not nearly the villain he is made to be and could indeed steer a peaceful and liberalizing tact.

The obvious choice would simply be that his Father lives and then next would be that his brother takes up the throne, both being more widely regarded as either rationale, liberal or less feisty than Wilhelm is thought to be. Even an alternate Wilhelm, changed through taking the throne later, not being "crippled" at birth, not falling under Bismarck's attempts to alienate him from his Father, etc., etc.

And that brings us forward to 1914. We might well see a far less blundering and alienating diplomacy from 1888 through 1914. The motivations to align with Austria are manifest, if not inevitable. The bitter relationship with France is hard to ameliorate after 1871. Russia is the next Great Power disruptor, having more to gain breaking the status quo than preserving it, much as Germany did to be born and even Italy accomplished, so the path of Russia toward a war may be the same in general if not detail. And the British still face the economic threat posed by Germany combined with Germany's lack of true power to make them the choice (a choice they in fact refused) as counter to Russia and get Britain to fall into the quasi-alliance that promised to leave London a friend of a victorious Russia rather than foe.

The road to 1914 was convoluted but had some threads that can occur and in fact did occur without Wilhelm or even Germany having a hand. But if we go back to 1888 or even 1911, we can see the road ahead take on more options, enough that the Great War can easily be averted, altered or played out unlike our TL.
 
In 1889 Annie Oakley shot the cigar out of the Kaiser's mouth

Have Annie Oakley shoot the Kaiser instead and the 7-year old Wilhelm, German Crown Prince becomes Wilhelm III, German Emperor with a regency council made up of Heinrich and Victoria, Princess Royal

No doubt Victoria will work to install liberal values in her impressionable grandson and it is certainly possible that with that act we get that liberal emperor that Imperial German reformists are salivating at
 

cardcarrier

Banned
If somehow Kaiser Wilhelm II would have not reigned over Germany, would World War I still happen?

I read somewhere that WW1 was not the result of Wilhelm II’s reign, but the result of the German army and Prussian elite having very much influence on there politics. So basically: a modern country in a pre-modern system. Is this right?

So if Wilhelm never become emperor, would the Great War still happen?
The British and Prussians/Germans had been in some form of cold war since the 1860's they would not stay neutral while Germany goes to stomp France/Russia
 

Riain

Banned
On 14 March 1899 the Kaiser abolished the post of Imperial Naval High Command, the officer who commanded all naval units at sea and ashore, and took over supreme command of the Navy himself.

Without Willy, or maybe a different Willy who doesn't butcher command structure of the Navy, the KM achieves results in ww1 commensurate with the resources expended upon it.
 
WW1 was result of long-lasted rivalry and several rising tensions. It wasn't going to happen, Wilhelm II or not. And you should remember that German kaiser wasn't dictator. Yes, him had plenty of power but not such totalitarian head of state and government like Hitler was. Wilhelm II's successor would had too saw WW1 breaking out but probably from different reason. There just was much of tensions and several international treaties. Even if Wilhelm II dies on some reason before July Crisis, Wilhelm III would probably make same decision since it had deal with Austria-Hungary.

Bigger guilt I would give to Franz Joseph I. It was under his decision accept negotiations with Serbia and keep his head cool instead going war.
 
Top