World War I in 1904, outline

Hi all, first post, but I used to hang out in alt/soc.history.what-if a lot in the 1990s.

just an outline of an idea for a timeline fr turning the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05 into World War I, starting early.


It has to do with the nature of the 1902 treaty between Japan and England: if either was involved in a war with at least two powers, the other was obligated to help.

And adding a slight change to the wording of the Franco-Russian Alliance such that after the defeat of the Russian Pacific Fleet in 1904, France offers enough aid to the Russian Northern Fleet (coaling stations, intel, material repairs, possible selling Russia some ships to help replace losses, etc) that Japan is able to argue that a second power has joined the War.

since this is before the 1905 reconciliation between Britain and France, Japan is able to persuade Britain to declare war on Russia and France.

Germany sees its chance (It has been worried about the Franco-Russian alliance since 1892) after Britain begins a naval interdiction of the Russian/French fleets, and activates the Schleffen plan, declaring it is doing so to *HELP* England, kicking off World War I of France & Russia vs Japan & England & Germany

Thoughts on if this is plausible, and ideas on how to expand it to a proper timeline?
 
I like another Anglo-French war in 1904. care to elaborate on it?

Britain declaring war on Russia seems to be a bit far out, unless India is under threat (was it in 1904?)

Ivan
 
Treaty obligations

it comes of a treaty obligation of the 1902 Japanese-British alliance.

If one or the other nation was involved in a war with a *single* other power, there was no obligation. But if there is a second power involved, the other nation *must* declare war and come to the aid of its ally.

So, if France attacks Japan after Japan attacks Russia, then England attacks France and Russia.

Its not unlike the August 1914 Dominos: Austria attacks Serbia, Russia defends Serbia, Germany has a treaty obligation to Austria, and activates the Schleffen plan (the only one they had), because they know if Germany declares war on Russia, France is obligated to declare war on Germany anyway. Germany attacks thru Belgium and Britain declares war on Germany.

Europe from basically 1892's Franco-Russian Alliance and the 1898 Triparte Alliance was a powderkeg waiting to explode, any number of events COULD have caused World War I.

this 1905 scenario is a plausable German Victory -- russia is at its weakest point vis-a-vis Germany, and Germany is at its economic peak relative to the rest of Europe.
 
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World War I of France & Russia vs Japan & England & Germany
If these are the sides involved, then the Russo-French will loose badly. They are hopelessly outmatched and that's even if you are being generous and assuming that Italy and Austria-Hungary don't follow Germany into the war.
The only way I can see this working is if they have some extra help. (For exemple if the USA is sympathetic to the Russians and offers assistance).
 
In OTL the French purposely did not get involved for precisely the reasons you outlined. Even if they 'push' things to the brink as the OP suggests, Britain is unlikely to formally declare war if the French haven't. There would be other mechanisms at their disposal to make the French back down. I think in this scenario both France and Britain would recognise the true threat of Germany and take great pains to avoid it. Hell even Russia would probably be convinced to negotiate with Japan. German intervention in such a war would be a disaster for everyone, including Britain.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
There is an extra POD possible to push this along. During the transit of the Russian Baltic Fleet through the North Sea, the Russians mistook British fishing boats for Japanese torpedo boats and opened fire, killing and wounded some British fishermen. If the diplomatic situation is worse than IOTL, the incident could easily spiral out of control and lead to a declaration of war.
 
There is an extra POD possible to push this along. During the transit of the Russian Baltic Fleet through the North Sea, the Russians mistook British fishing boats for Japanese torpedo boats and opened fire, killing and wounded some British fishermen. If the diplomatic situation is worse than IOTL, the incident could easily spiral out of control and lead to a declaration of war.
This I see leading to a very different war: England and Japan crush Russia. France stays out because it's afraid of German intervention. The Result is that Russia now hates England and mistrusts France. Next step: Russo-German reconciliation and Russia joins the Central Powers. WW1, if and when it comes, would be very different.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
There is an extra POD possible to push this along. During the transit of the Russian Baltic Fleet through the North Sea, the Russians mistook British fishing boats for Japanese torpedo boats and opened fire, killing and wounded some British fishermen. If the diplomatic situation is worse than IOTL, the incident could easily spiral out of control and lead to a declaration of war.

This was the basis for a short but very good post on another site many years ago, resulting in all of Europe ganging up on the Brits. Only Teddy Roosevelt was prepared to side with the British Empire and even then he was hamstrung by US politics. The British are overmatched, their army eliminated in a Fisher-inspired amphibious assault (in Schleswig?), and two Geremany army corps are landed in an undefended England, to protect "Uncle Bertie." Edward VII abdicates a few years later in favour of his nephew who becomes Emperor William V IIRC.

I will see if I can dig a link out when I'm back home
 
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