World War I: German Neutrality

What if the Kaiser had no interest in a two-front war and wanted no involvement in a war Austria-Hungary had aggressed that he kept Germany neutral? Would it just be Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, and the Ottoman Empire Vs. the Triple Entente and Italy?
 

Ryan

Donor
if Germany makes it clear to Austria-Hungary that they won't back them up and get involved, then Austria-Hungary will probably begrudgingly accept the demands that Serbia agreed too. I doubt they'd be stupid enough to start something against Serbia, knowing it would lead to a war with Russia without an ally.
 

Delta Force

Banned
It would be Austria-Hungary fighting alone against Serbia and Imperial Russia, which would likely lead to the defeat of Austria-Hungary. It's unlikely that Imperial Russia would seek to dismantle Austria-Hungary, and the war would probably conclude with Austria-Hungary being required to pay reparations. The reason why this wouldn't be done is because Imperial Germany would be seen as an untrustworthy ally and become isolated in Europe.
 
Then Germany's only fairly reliable ally (A-H) gets smashed and dismembered, and Germany is utterly at the mercy of Franco-Russian demands.

It might be useful to note that Tsar Alexander III told Nikolai Giers (at the very beginning of the Entente) that, in the event of war with A-H, the Entente's goal was to destroy Germany and replace it with "a number of small, weak states". So staying out of an Entente-Austria war may well not save Germany.

It kinda depends on whether you view the Entente as implacably hostile towards unified Germany, or terrified innocents who only band together against a bully. Or something in between.
 
It would be Austria-Hungary fighting alone against Serbia and Imperial Russia, which would likely lead to the defeat of Austria-Hungary. It's unlikely that Imperial Russia would seek to dismantle Austria-Hungary, and the war would probably conclude with Austria-Hungary being required to pay reparations. The reason why this wouldn't be done is because Imperial Germany would be seen as an untrustworthy ally and become isolated in Europe.

Why wouldn't Russia permit A-H to be dismantled? Russia had ambitions in the Balkans, and A-H in its current form could only continue to be a hindrance. Just by existing, it prevented Russia from carving up and distributing its territory to strengthen and structure Russia's clients (or buy off the recalcitrant).
 
if Germany makes it clear to Austria-Hungary that they won't back them up and get involved, then Austria-Hungary will probably begrudgingly accept the demands that Serbia agreed too. I doubt they'd be stupid enough to start something against Serbia, knowing it would lead to a war with Russia without an ally.

And eventually, this pattern will repeat, until A-H is dismembered.
 
Austria Hungary makes demands that Serbia can accept. They're not starting a war without Germany's explicit backing.

Well, here's how I expect that to work out.

"What Serbia can accept" ends up being a promise by the Serbian government to investigate itself, with no outside oversight.

Since Serbian politicians are more than a bit worried by Apis, his regicide compatriots, and their Army clique, the investigation carefully leads nowhere.

Apis et al sponsor more destabilizing attacks on A-H. It's likely we'll even see a return of the guerilla bands that Serbia supported in various regions prior to A-H making her be more circumspect, in 1909.

At some point, A-H crumbles. Denied any effective response to violent acts perpetrated from sanctuaries in Serbia, and already in parlous condition, there can hardly be any other outcome.

A-H gets dismembered, with Russia ensuring the bits go to her clients.

And Germany is alone, helpless against whatever pressures the Franco-Russian Entente care to place on her. In the competitive atmosphere of the time, this won't be pretty.
 
With the Russians(and French, I guess) becoming far more powerful in the next few years, wouldn't the British start going towards the German camp to balance the power in Europe?

A UK - German vs Franco - Russian world War 1 by 1920?
 
With a strictly neutral Germany, 1914 would be either no war at all, or a quick war with Russia, Serbia, Montenegro and Romania (and Italy, why not) against A-H alone which no one would think of calling a World War.
 
The British Empire valued division in Europe. If Austria-Hungary collapsed, the British would begin backing the Germans as a counter-weight to the Franco-Russian alliance.

Germany would be fine.
 

tenthring

Banned
Losing Russia really put Germany in a bind. AH was a truly shitty ally to have. I'd take Russia over it any day. Part of the problem though is that when you've got Kaiser Wilhelm running your foreign diplomacy it limits yours options.

Not sure if its ASB, but a Russia and Germany alliance verses AH , France, and maybe Britain would be an interesting timeline.
 
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