World War I Against the League of Three Emperors

A popular subject of discussion for an alternate World War I is: a war against both Germany and Russia. So, in this timeline, Germany is able to patch up tensions between Austria-Hungary and Russia and keep the League of Three Emperors in tact. The opposing alliance would consist of: Great Britain, Portugal, France, Belgium (once Germany invades it), Italy, the Ottoman Empire, and Japan. Because of Austria-Hungary and Russia's patched tensions, the Balkan states: Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, and Greece would probably fight Balkan wars separate from the Great War and be considered neutral.
 
Let's see.

Italy can only fight A-H, and we know how that goes -- bloody stalemate.
The OE desperately needs to hold Russia in the Caucasus -- bloody stalemate.
Portugal's contribution is a gallant gesture, but little more.
Japan is snapping up German colonies, and trembling at the size of the armies Russia might send for Russo-Japanese War 2.0
Belgium is probably just maintaining a rump army in the remaining corner of its territory.
Britain has to defend Persia from perhaps 100,000 Russians (OTL I think they had about that many in the region). They also have to garrison the Indian frontier, and provide something to bolster the Ottomans. They might even have to support the Japanese (using Indian troops?).

I'm thinking France is hosed.
 

elkarlo

Banned
Italy would be run over by AH, and easily. If AH isn't getting ground down by the Russians. Basically without the US the Entente is toast
 
Italy would be run over by AH, and easily. If AH isn't getting ground down by the Russians. Basically without the US the Entente is toast

What if the US joins the Entente in due time? I didn't mention them right away because I wanted to mention only the parties before 1917 and mention the US now as a later possibility.
 
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Well to me the interesting aspects here are that Russia does not have to commit forces as one would expect. We have two options here...

1.) Swift war, which frankly is exactly what it sounds like with a rapid fight in the Balkans and a similar one in France with victory accomplished via sheer force alone. With Russia as an ally of Germany then the needs for a "swift war" is not needed in German military circles. Now this is German forces slamming into French forts, which sounds bad but it still is German superior artillery striking said forts which turns the entire war into an even bloodier version of OTL 1914.

France still sends men out without entrenching shovels and stressing shrapnel over explosive shells. Germany has its units but instead of quick movement it is slower given the needs to fight the forts.

2.) A long war, which is still possible. While Russia is an ally in truth it is a secured flank over a real honest source of manpower. So say the idea to swing around French fortifications remains. We shall of course do so here.

This still means an ungodly amount of German troops are present and focused upon France, Belgium, and Holland. Why Holland? Cause Russia is an ally so the need to narrow the invasion and maintain trading outlets is likewise removed. So the UK has to fight this fight. Italy? Romania? Bulgaria? Greece? They sit this shit out as per OTL 1914.

This is not a pleasant fight. It is still likely the creation of trench warfare as defensive technology has surpassed offensive technology in 1914. Now the lines may be more to the west what with the massive numbers Germany can throw down, yet with both Belgium and the Netherlands to hold down the occupation forces are larger in the Western front. This still is a very large force present in the war.

1914 goes by with the fight clearly being one of holding out as the twin empires of France and the UK gather strength. Out East Japan rather quickly defeat asian forces of the German Empire as they did in 1914.

Now comes the big issue of Russia. They have no real need to go fight Serbia, nor go and fight France. As TTL has Germans as an ally all that french investment is most likely german so the Russian nation is experiencing a fine period of demand for food, raw resources, and manufactured goods.

We get into the question of Japan as OTL the Russo-Japanese war was a defining moment for the state. Yet this conflict was limited as UK supported Japan and France supported Russia. TTL no such conflict exists meaning that for Japan and Russia to fight risks the League of Three Emperors supporting Russia. If the fight would drag Europe into the war with Japan, or if it is only Russia it is still likely that Japan would secure a victory given superior tactics, logistics, and their early stages of the so-called Bushido propaganda.

If there is no war then Maybe this is Japan and Russia going at it in the east, while Germany fights France. Yet if the Russo-Japanese war occurred similar to how it did OTL then this may be the drive for revenge.

In any case we get to 1915 and the front lines will determine the fate of this war ending in 1915 or later. If Italy joins the League then France is down, and with France down UK must seek terms. Now if Italy can join the Entente then we would likely see the same offer of "take all the Balkans" win over Romania, and others. Yet we turn back to Russia so Romania is not likely to commit suicide for the Balkans.

The worst this war will be is late 1916 or early 1917. The amount of troops present alone will make France and UK facing a serious and constant threat.

Post war is interesting as Russia will not have had to suffer breadlines, serious conscription and major food issues. Likewise any blockade by the Royal Navy is off set by the bounty of Russia. Meaning that while Germans are enjoying a superior amount of goods compared to OTL Russia is enjoying more money. Well the middle class and wealthy. Russia still is not a nice place to live if you are a peasant or a factory worker.

So a League Victory in WWI will look down right pleasant compared to what happened in Russia OTL.
 
The German-Russo-Austrian alliance would easily win; probably fairly quickly too.

Doubt it, even more so the fairly quickly. France should be able to hold out, maybe not on the same front line as OTL, all they really need to do is let Germany do the attacking, and just sit there. Also what is Holland doing? They would not really like a massive German army on their doorstep, Denmark too.
Russia is going to bit busy if there're not careful. Fighting on at least 3 fronts those being the Ottomans in the west, British in the south and Japan in the east. This is not counting any action by Finland, and or Sweden. They may not lose ground but sure will lose a lot of men.
Even if things go tits up in Europe how will Britain lose anything, The Empire is just to big, and most of it too far away.

Saying all that, what possible POD could there be to make Britain and Russia enemies?
 
Doubt it, even more so the fairly quickly. France should be able to hold out, maybe not on the same front line as OTL, all they really need to do is let Germany do the attacking, and just sit there. Also what is Holland doing? They would not really like a massive German army on their doorstep, Denmark too.
Russia is going to bit busy if there're not careful. Fighting on at least 3 fronts those being the Ottomans in the west, British in the south and Japan in the east. This is not counting any action by Finland, and or Sweden. They may not lose ground but sure will lose a lot of men.
Even if things go tits up in Europe how will Britain lose anything, The Empire is just to big, and most of it too far away.

Saying all that, what possible POD could there be to make Britain and Russia enemies?

There are many possibilities for PODs leading to Anglo-Russian enmity. Some ideas I had were: The Great Game escalating or, in my previous thread "No Franco-Russian Alliance" (https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=343036), user English Nationalist posted a POD where the Crimean War left Russia worse off.
 
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Italy would be run over by AH, and easily. If AH isn't getting ground down by the Russians. Basically without the US the Entente is toast
Nonsense. Getting through Alpine fortifications isn't easy.

With that said, the land war goes badly for the Entente. France isn't a match for Germany on it's own. Let alone with Russia. Britain won't have enough time to build up it's Army. An Ottoman invasion of the Caucasus would be disastrous. The Balkans would be better, but they still face the possibility of a Balkans League bashing with Austrian support. Once the big French threat is defeated, the Germans and Russians send troops to support the Austrians against Italy and the Ottoman Empire. Everyone would be forced to make peace on German terms except Britain.
 
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Doubt it, even more so the fairly quickly. France should be able to hold out, maybe not on the same front line as OTL, all they really need to do is let Germany do the attacking, and just sit there. Also what is Holland doing? They would not really like a massive German army on their doorstep, Denmark too.
Russia is going to bit busy if there're not careful. Fighting on at least 3 fronts those being the Ottomans in the west, British in the south and Japan in the east. This is not counting any action by Finland, and or Sweden. They may not lose ground but sure will lose a lot of men.
Even if things go tits up in Europe how will Britain lose anything, The Empire is just to big, and most of it too far away.

Saying all that, what possible POD could there be to make Britain and Russia enemies?
I'm from a French family, but I doubt they'd hold out against Germany and Russia. Russia doesn't have to fight Japan and Britain to the East and South. It would be silly for them to launch offensives there. Fussia can aford to lose a lot of men.
 
Germany can focus everything on the Western Front. Schlieffen Plan probably succeeds. Turks can't do shit against a combined Austro-Russian offensive in the Balkans. They're out of the war pretty quickly. Italy vs AH is a bloody stalemate until fresh Russian troops arrive. Japan shits itself in Manchuria. Germany doesn't have a famine with the Ukraine to support it. Russia probably wins in Central Asia. If the SP doesn't succeed then fresh Russian troops will finish off France. Can you say curb stomp battle?
 

elkarlo

Banned
Nonsense. Getting through Alpine fortifications isn't easy.

With that said, the land war goes badly for the Entente. France isn't a match for Germany on it's own. Let alone with Russia. Britain won't have enough time to build up it's Army. An Ottoman invasion of the Caucasus would be disastrous. The Balkans would be better, but they still face the possibility of a Balkans League bashing with Austrian support. Once the big French threat is defeated, the Germans and Russians send troops to support the Austrians against Italy and the Ottoman Empire. Everyone would be forced to make peace on German terms except Britain.


What Alpine forts? The AHs held them. The Italians really couldn't beat the AHs, even when the AHs had up to 3 other fronts. On top of losing their equivalent of the BEF ie their trained officer's corps in 1914 to the Russians and the Serbs.
The Itlaians also had trouble containing limited AH offensives. With most of the AH army brought to bear on Italy, I feel that even the AHs could've taken Venice by 1915.
 
What Alpine forts? The AHs held them. The Italians really couldn't beat the AHs, even when the AHs had up to 3 other fronts. On top of losing their equivalent of the BEF ie their trained officer's corps in 1914 to the Russians and the Serbs.
The Itlaians also had trouble containing limited AH offensives. With most of the AH army brought to bear on Italy, I feel that even the AHs could've taken Venice by 1915.

Not possible, while the Austrian side of the border is the better defensive line even the italian one is good; keeping a defensive stance mean that the Austrian can't advance and frankly adding more troops in that sector is more an hindrance than an advantage.
While the Three Emperors League hold a great advantage in land, that can be offset by France (and Italy) keeping a more defensive position and not going in: all out attack mode.
Still regarding Italy, a troops landing operation can be attempted in Istria (as planned) to by pass the Austrian line.
 
Without singling anyone out forget short war options, there are still the same number of roads in France and Belgium that will fill up with the same number of German troops which as Schliffen himself realised is not enough to win the decisive battle.

France won't go down quickly. A lot will depend on whether the British implemented conscription or not as the sooner they can provide a large field army the better for the Entente.

The stalmates that occurred in World War I were largely a result of the combination of geography (i.e those roads in France and Belgium) and technology...soldiers marching was the main way of manoeuvring beyond the railhead. To give some idea of what this means a German soldier being a fit young man could march forty kilometres in a day but a German army corps of forty thousand men occupied better than twenty nine kilometres of road space (and lest we forget forget this is without its trains (supply columns) ). If confined to a single road the infantry would soon outpace their ammunition!

So we are looking at inevitably barring a miracle a long war. That means what we need are good economic historians who have some idea of what contributions the Russian economy can make to the German and vice versa to see how well the Three Emperors do in the face of the Anglo-French-Italian-Japanese 'Hunger Blockade'

Work out that and you have a pretty good idea of who will most likely win the war (of course odd things happen on land as well as sea but you can avoid tiring the Space Bats).
 
So we are looking at inevitably barring a miracle a long war. That means what we need are good economic historians who have some idea of what contributions the Russian economy can make to the German and vice versa to see how well the Three Emperors do in the face of the Anglo-French-Italian-Japanese 'Hunger Blockade'

Work out that and you have a pretty good idea of who will most likely win the war.

Military-wise neither side would - they lack the means to hurt one another badly enough. All land fronts are either too narrow (Western Front) or in too difficult terrain (Caucasus, Alps, Indian Frontier, Korea) to allow decisive and quick breakthroughs. The Eurasian land mass controlled by the LTE has enough agricultural output to feed their populations (Russian surplus evens out the German and Austro-Hungarian import needs), and the raw materials to keep on fighting. So these fronts will all turn into attrition warfare at its worst.

Thus the position of the United States is central in any WW1 scenario, since wars in this era will create massive amounts of foreign debt for Britain, France and other combatants - and US is the only power with that kind of money. If Wilson becomes president in this kind of situation and Germans won't force his hand with U-boats or looney Mexican telegrams, he might well be able to force the Entente powers to stop fighting by using the economic clout of the US, and thus ensure that the war ends without clear winners.
 
Let's see:

Russia, for its part, will be invading all over the place. Persia, the Caucasus, Manchuria, supporting Austria-Hungary in the Balkans, etc, will tie up Russian manpower, but it will also tie up huge amounts of Entente manpower. Japan is in for the fight of its life, and will have to do a lot more than just snag a few German outposts. They will probably get some support from the British to make up for it.

The Ottoman Empire is pretty much toast. Not only do they have the Caucasus to worry about, but as Russian invasion becomes increasingly likely, Greece, Serbia, and Bulgaria all will join the Central Powers (Greece due to claims on Turkey, Bulgaria due to the same and alliances, Serbia because it is pressured into doing so.) Again, British troops might prop the Ottomans up in its Arab territories, but Constantinople (or should I say Tsargrad) is gonna be captured, and when they lose in the Caucasus the whole front will collapse. I expect Russia to grab Constantinople itself, Bulgaria to grab the rest of Thrace, Greece to grab parts of Western Anatolia situated around Smyrna, and the Armenians to join up with the Russian Empire, and that's only to the Central Powers themselves. The whole Empire is leaving one way or another, though if Britain plays its cards right several territories may just be under their influence or control.

Austria-Hungary has the good fortune of not having its Officer Corps decimated at the beginning of the war, so ITTL they're going to be far more than dead weight. With only the Italian front to worry about (although they'll assist in the Balkans), they'll slowly but surely start pushing back the Italians, eventually forcing them out of the war. Italy had an incompetent army that an Austria-Hungary not weakened by OTL's 1914 could defeat without too much trouble. The Habsburgs will probably take a nice slice out of Italy, possibly even including Venice, as well as some reparations. Once Italy is gone, Austria-Hungary can reinforce Germany in the West if needed.

France will be bloody, and Germany will have its fair share of trouble defeating them. But they will, because they have superior artillery, manpower, military doctrine, and industry. Paris will be captured near the end of 1915, with Russian and Austrian troops participating somewhat. Belgium and the Netherlands will both either be invaded or forced to become essentially German vassal states.

By 1916, the Three Emperors will reign supreme over Europe, enforcing harsh peaces on the other powers. Look to the Septemberprogramm to see how Germany would treat France (and Belgium), while they'll be able to get their African colonies back by giving up the huge chunk of French territory they have captured. Britain will get off fairly light, although they'll be humiliated and shown to not be able to protect their allies. The British Empire will also lose not even a square mile of land, even gaining a few territories off of Germany in the form of Pacific Islands. The French colonial Empire will lose a lot of its land in Africa to Germany in exchange for peace.

Japan may or may not get out of this alright. They will have to face the Russian bear on the mainland, and this Russian bear may eventually receive German and Austrian support. Russia is going to want revenge for their earlier war, and they'll get it. Japan will lose Manchuria to Russia and Korea to "independence" (really a puppet of Russia), although they'll keep what they took from Germany. After the war, they'll align themselves strongly with Britain.

In Persia and Central Asia, Russia and Britain will square off. Due to geographical difficulties, I foresee this just being a stalemate, but it's going to be a stalemate that drains British resources. It will also spur on Indian independence, because they will be the soldiers Britain uses to defend their interests.

In Africa, German will get a nice big colonial Empire post-war, despite Britain doing everything it can to stop them (you can only tell France to not hand over their colonies so much when German troops occupy their homeland, after all). They will lose what they lost IOTL to South Africa, as well as probably Togoland, but the Belgian and French Congo as well as French territories outside of West Africa and Djoubouti will make up the new German African colonies. In many ways this is a plus for Germany: They lost some of their more expensive colonies and exchanged them for more profitable ones.

Europe is now at peace, with France, Italy, and Turkey beaten down dramatically. Germany dominates Western Europe, converting Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium into what is essentially vassal states and annexing portions of each country. France has lost many industrial regions to Germany, including a major steel-producing one, and is going to be reeling from the reparations leveraged upon them even worse than OTL's on Germany. Italy has been soundly defeated, and I could see them losing parts of their colonial Empire. Once this happens, Germany or Britain could intervene to pick up their lost colonies. For the sake of simplicity, we'll say Britain takes over East Africa while Germany gets a protectorate in Libya.

Austria-Hungary expands its influence over Italy, and ethnic tensions are going to be a serious problem. However, self-determination never really got that far off the ground TTL, so with suppression and German assistance, they'll keep their Empire and hopefully reform.

In the Southern Balkans, Greece and Bulgaria now both have substantial Turkish minorities, although population exchanges might make that work a little more. I expect they'll stay allies that are friendly towards both Russia and Germany and focused on keeping Turkey from making a comeback.

In Eastern Europe, tensions between Germany and Austria-Hungary and Russia will cause a bit of a rivalry between Berlin and St.Petersburg to form, for much the same reasons as IOTL in the early 1900s. Austria-Hungary will obviously stay on Germany's side, as will the German vassals of Belgium, the Netherlands, and Denmark, but a revanchinist France and Italy will align themselves with Russia in the hopes of getting revenge and recouping losses. Britain will at first stay neutral, trying to play the two off each other.

Russia will have annexed much of the Pontic and Armenian (historical Armenia, mind you) regions from Turkey on flimsy claims. What's left is truly going to be a rump Turkey. I imagine in the Middle East there will be a Kurdistan under the control of Russia, while Britain/France (probably just Britain, anything would really just be a consolation prize) control Syria and the Levant. Arabia also has Western-influenced states pop up, while Iran just tries to stick together (It's going to fall into the British sphere of influence just out of self-preservation).

In Asia, the balance of power will have changed dramatically. As I said before, Japan and Britain will strengthen the Anglo-Japanese alliance, fearing for Russian domination of Eastern Asia. Russia will probably end up sticking its nose in the Chinese civil war, which will further build up tension. As time goes on, Britain is going to decide it can live with Germany, but not with Russia. A conflict may or may not come eventually, between a British-Japanes-German-Habsburg alliance and a Russian-French-Italian alliance. But that's really too far into the future to comment on what might happen.

Wow. I wrote a lot.
 
Military-wise neither side would - they lack the means to hurt one another badly enough. All land fronts are either too narrow (Western Front) or in too difficult terrain (Caucasus, Alps, Indian Frontier, Korea) to allow decisive and quick breakthroughs. The Eurasian land mass controlled by the LTE has enough agricultural output to feed their populations (Russian surplus evens out the German and Austro-Hungarian import needs), and the raw materials to keep on fighting. So these fronts will all turn into attrition warfare at its worst.

Thus the position of the United States is central in any WW1 scenario, since wars in this era will create massive amounts of foreign debt for Britain, France and other combatants - and US is the only power with that kind of money. If Wilson becomes president in this kind of situation and Germans won't force his hand with U-boats or looney Mexican telegrams, he might well be able to force the Entente powers to stop fighting by using the economic clout of the US, and thus ensure that the war ends without clear winners.

In short the question again thus turns on the amount of economic panic felt in Berlin. If the Russians can supply enough of Germany's needs that they feel they can wait then as you say a compromise peace is enforced by the US...if they are still in or close to being in the situation they were OTL then America comes in on the Entente side as per OTL and then it is simply a question of grinding down the Three Emperor's at least two of whom will likely be facing an uncomfortable domestic situation anyway.

Edit: One problem your post did not address is that Russian surplus was insufficient in OTL for Russia to supply its own domestic needs after wastage from its collapsing transport system...the killer question thus turns on can Germany thus do for Russia what they could not for Austria-Hungary and prop up its rail network?
 
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I don't think America would have time to join. The Germans have all the manpower they'll need, what with no Eastern front and reliable allies. Things weren't nearly as static as people like to make it out to be, and once Italy falls (question of when, not if) France will have to at least worry a little about their southern flank. France wouldn't fall right away, but by late 1916, it's almost assured.

ITTL, Germany has essentially traded the Ottomans for the Russians. And the Austro-Hungarians still have their forces intact due to not fighting Russia. Considering how close things were IOTL, this will make a HUGE difference.
 
I don't think America would have time to join. The Germans have all the manpower they'll need, what with no Eastern front and reliable allies. Things weren't nearly as static as people like to make it out to be, and once Italy falls (question of when, not if) France will have to at least worry a little about their southern flank. France wouldn't fall right away, but by late 1916, it's almost assured.

ITTL, Germany has essentially traded the Ottomans for the Russians. And the Austro-Hungarians still have their forces intact due to not fighting Russia. Considering how close things were IOTL, this will make a HUGE difference.

You have completely ignored the point I made about the geographical constraints that applied to how much force could be brought to bear. Further it should be noted that the Ottomans held off the British, French and Russians to nearly the close of the war. Again due to geography the amount of force that AH can send in that direction is limited. The Ottomans however can now look forwards to receiving aid and war material that they had to fight without in OTL.

Further Russia is likely weaker than in OTL as neither Britain nor France have been as interested in developing its economy via cheap loans. The Ottomans may well be stronger.

The only power that significantly gains is the Dual-Monarchy and that gain only lasts until the loss of its overseas trade begins to bite. It is by far the weakest and least effectual of the Great Powers that were involved in the conflict.

A lot would be changed, so it is impossible to gauge all factors but as Russia worked out in OTL there are enormous advantages to the Anglo-French position.
 
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