World war 2. WHAT? World war 2 never happens.

The German army gets rid of Hitler and the Nazis (at least the most extreme supporters of Hitler) and his racist policies. The invasion of Poland never happens so World War 2 never happens instead Germany intervenes in the Baltic states and Finland “saving” then from the Soviet Union.
The Soviet Union on the other hand gets cheeked in Finland and the Baltic so never gets Moldavia and Besarabia at all.
Hungary and Rumania go to war over their border disputes in Transylvania. Germany stays neutral and so does Italy. Rumania gets most of the support from Yugoslavia and France. The border remains the same (same small changes).
Italy invades Albania and then Greece. Albania capitulates easily but Greece is able to resist to a certain point, Germany helps Italy with 1 division of mountain troops and the German Air force gives air support. Italy gets northern Greece and attaches it to the Albanian Kingdom who is an Italian protectorate. France and Great Brittan support Greece but short of sending troops. A referendum organized by the Italians and observed by France, Great Britain and Germany shows that a majority of the population in northern Greece supports “unification” with Albania (there was a substantial Albania minority in northern Greece at this time). Italy guarantees Greece that there will be no more territorial demand on Greece and the Albanian problem have been resolved.
Now Italy turns it eye on Yugoslavia and together with Hungary, Bulgaria, and Germany to a small extent and of course the Kingdom of Albania ( which is an Italian protectorate) dismembers Yugoslavia.
Again a referendum is held and the territories of Kosovo, northern and southern Macedonia, and Montenegro decide to unite with the Kingdom of Albania.
The eastern part of Macedonia and Serbia go to Bulgaria. Vojvodina goes to Hungary. Dalmatia becomes an Italian province and Germany gets most of Slovenia, the rest of the country is divided between Croatia and Serbia (2 puppet states under the influence of both Rome and Berlin).
All this is archived through small wars and diplomacy, France and Great Brittan never go to war against Germany and Italy because they see the Soviet Union of the biggest threat to their security. Also the Italian propaganda machine uses the fact that both Greece and Yugoslavia have Albania minorities in abundance to keep the international public opinion who is “outraged by the Greek and Serb atrocities towards the Albanians” (some of which in reality really happened) neutral and in some cases even sympathetic to the case of small nations “the Kingdom of Albania”.
The Italians and the Germans came out of this small wars and intervention stronger and as the defender of freedom. With their appetite for conquest and wars satisfied Germany and Italy feel that the wrong done by the Versailles Treaty has been reversed and now they are ready to join the rest of the great powers as equals.
 
"The German Army gets rid of Hitler and the Nazis"?

What does this mean? How does this happen?

KEVP
 

General Zod

Banned
"The German Army gets rid of Hitler and the Nazis"?

What does this mean? How does this happen?

KEVP

There were OTL 1938-39 plans by the Heer to overthrow Hitler (see here). On a somewhat large scale in 1938 if the Western Powers had supported Czechoslovakia and he chose war over the Sudetenland. On a more limited scale in 1939 (since the Heer hated Poland and wanted it crushed, and Germany in 1939 was more prepared to fight). I suppose the PoD is that Witzleben is not transferred to Frankfurt and Halder does not lose nerve.
 
I've done some Hearts of Iron II games along these lines as both Germany and Italy. The Allies let Germany run roughshod over Europe as long as they don't trigger at least one of the belligerence events(Annexing Austria, Munich Treaty, Polish Invasion, ect.)
 
You might need a scenario where Hitler and Himmler are both removed before the SS is installed early in the Third Reich. It might take multiple POD's to keep Germany on a course to build its economy without going into a major war, but not impossible.

While I am not an expert in European history, my favorite scenario is one where Germany instigates a civil war in the Ukraine, cleaving it from the USSR. Germany uses its military complex without going to war itself. How likely is such a scenario?
 

General Zod

Banned
The German army gets rid of Hitler and the Nazis (at least the most extreme supporters of Hitler) and his racist policies.

So we have a military junta neo-Wilhelmine government supported by conservative public opinion. Such a government would still strongly support a claims on the 1914 territories and if necessary war against Poland, but not at the risk of fighting the Western Powers, nor they would support anything like Barbarossa.

Therefore, let's assume that Britain, pleased with the overthrow of Hitler, is somewhat more willing to compromise about German claims. A Munich-II conference happens, where Poland is strongarmed in returning Danzig, West Prussia (minus Gdynia and a extraterritorial land connection to it) and Upper Silesia to Germany, and Germany signs a treaty of non-aggression with Poland and garantees its boundaries. There is an heartfelt Anglo-German detente. Breakneck rearmement is slowed, and the economy stabilized. The German people is pleased with the new government. Traditonal parties (minus the Nazis and the Commies), civil and poltiical rights, and the Landers are restored. The generals implement a revision of the Weimar constitution that bans "extremist" (Nazis and Communists) parties, greately strenghtens the executive, and restores the monarchy. Louis Ferdinand is crowned as Kaiser. The new elections see a coalition between the conservative-nationalists and the center party seize the power. The Protectorate of Bohemia-Moravia is formally annexed but given a special autonomy statute. The Motolov-Ribbentrop Pact is denounced or never signed in the first place. Pleased with the Polish gains, the new German government focuses on building a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe by peaceful means, and anti-Soviet containment.

Stalin gets into high alarm as he sees his fears of an anti-Communist front take shape, and goes into preemptive expansionism mode. Plans for invasion of the Baltic countries, Finland, and Romania are prepared, and Communist parties worldwide are ordered to abandon "popular front" anti-fascist cooperation and step up anti-capitalist sabotage.

Mussolini gnashes his teeth as he sees his opportunity to rebuild the Roman Empire by opportunist explotiment of Nazist might. He reviews the map of Europe seeking for alternative targets for expansion.


The invasion of Poland never happens so World War 2 never happens instead Germany intervenes in the Baltic states and Finland “saving” then from the Soviet Union.

The Soviet Union on the other hand gets cheeked in Finland and the Baltic so never gets Moldavia and Besarabia at all.


Very Unlikely. Sooner or later, Stalin would feel sufficiently confident in the Red Army's buildup and paranoid about the intentions of Germany and the Western Powers, as to risk a major preemptive attack in 1941-43. You still get a WWII without Hitler, but it is Britain, Germany, and France vs. the USSR.


Either in 1941-43 when Stalin unleashes his big Reverse Barbarossa on Europe, if he gets cold feet in 1939 and scaps plans about Baltic, Finland, and Romania. If he does not, because he believes he can get away with some land-grabbing, from Germany focused on internal readjustment and the Western Powers being spineless pacifists that never stood up to Hitler, he invades the Baltic countries, Finland, and Romania. London, Paris, and Berlin make an hasty alliance, and you have WWII in 1939-40. All countries are still rather unprepared for such a major war at this stage, so it mostly bogs down in a stalemate in Finland, Romania, and Eastern Poland, until Fall 1940 or Spring 1941.


Or alternatively, Stalin dares not make moves on Finland, Lithuania, and Romania, or he does but backs down from the other Great Powers' opposition (probably he gets away with annexing Estonia and Latvia). So he seethes down and concentrates on building up his Great Red Army for a general offensive in 1941-43. A cold war ensues in Europe between the Soviets and the Anglo-Germans.


Hungary and Rumania go to war over their border disputes in Transylvania. Germany stays neutral and so does Italy. Rumania gets most of the support from Yugoslavia and France. The border remains the same (same small changes).


If the USSR has not attacked, quite possibly. No, Germany would support its main ally in Eastern Europe, and so would Italy. A situation much like the SCW would ensue (Hungary as the German-italian proxy, Romania as the French proxy), except most likely Stalin threatens to backstab Romania and Bucharest loses the war. Romania is cut down to size as it loses Transylvania to Hungary and Bessarabia to the USSR. Much like OTL. Romania either sinks into isolationism or becomes a cowed German satellite. Buffed-up Hungary might annex Slovakia.


Italy invades Albania and then Greece.


Albania has been already annexed by Italy. Again, only if WWII has not broken out, otherwise Il Duce goes to be an happy member of the anti-Communist crusade, after having been promised by London and Berlin future compensations in the Balkans and some Soviet booty if he does not messes up with the rearguard of the coalition.


Otherwise, there is 50%-50% probability of him attacking Yugoslavia or Greece first.


Germany helps Italy with 1 division of mountain troops and the German Air force gives air support.


Depends on how much friendly relations between London and Berlin are at this point. if they are in full detente, doubtful Germany would risk to anger Britain by committing troops, although they might send a lot of support. Without German "volunteers" it is entirely likely that the Italian attack would fail, as IOTL, albeit here Musso can focus all the military strength of Italy on one objective, so he might well succeed, he has not another front in Africa.


However, Italy has far better chances to succeed if the sequence is reversed, attack Yugoslavia first. Italy has a boundary, the terrain is less daunting, can get support from Hungary and Bulgaria, as well as an extensive net of Croat insurgents that Italy has been cultivating for some years. And Britain cares far less for Yugoslaiva, which was a French creation, than for Greece.


Italy gets northern Greece and attaches it to the Albanian Kingdom who is an Italian protectorate. France and Great Brittan support Greece but short of sending troops. A referendum organized by the Italians and observed by France, Great Britain and Germany shows that a majority of the population in northern Greece supports “unification” with Albania (there was a substantial Albania minority in northern Greece at this time). Italy guarantees Greece that there will be no more territorial demand on Greece and the Albanian problem have been resolved.


Depends on how willing France and Britain are willing to appease Italy for the sake of anti-Soviet committment, and again how friendly are the relationships between Italy, Germany, and Britain. There were British garantees on Greece since 1939 as well. Otherwise, if Italy botches the attack as IOTL or Britain threatens intervention and Germany does not support Italy, Mussolini may be forced to an humiliating retreat. Depending how much humuliating, he may face a coup. If everything aligns favourably for Italy, it might well get away with the annexation of Southern Epirus (the only part of Greece with a sizable Albanian minority. I suppose you refer to that by "northern Greece". BTW, Albania was not a protectorate, it had been annexed (Vittorio Emanuele III got the title of King of Albania).


Now Italy turns it eye on Yugoslavia and together with Hungary, Bulgaria, and Germany to a small extent and of course the Kingdom of Albania ( which is an Italian protectorate) dismembers Yugoslavia.


As I said above, rather better chances of success if Italy tries this first. Same considerations as for Greece, above. But if it is a gangbang on Yugoslavia by several nations, and there is serious Croat insurgency, London might well earmark Yugoslavia as a lost cause. Better to organize a Croat insurgency, and set up some kind of border incident, as a casus belli. Britain is not that much interested inYugoslavia, France is but is not going to act without London, so this might well work.


Again a referendum is held and the territories of Kosovo, northern and southern Macedonia, and Montenegro decide to unite with the Kingdom of Albania.
The eastern part of Macedonia and Serbia go to Bulgaria. Vojvodina goes to Hungary. Dalmatia becomes an Italian province and Germany gets most of Slovenia, the rest of the country is divided between Croatia and Serbia (2 puppet states under the influence of both Rome and Berlin).


Dalmatia, Kosovo, and Montenegro go to Italy, all Macedonia to Bulgaria, Vojvodina to Hungary, Slovenia to Germany, Croatia with Bosnia becomes a Italian-German puppet. Serbia is beaten down. It might become a nominal Axis puppet as well, but it is an hotbed of nationalist resentment and Communist subversion. In short order, it might switch to be a puppet of the USSR.


All this is archived through small wars and diplomacy, France and Great Brittan never go to war against Germany and Italy because they see the Soviet Union of the biggest threat to their security. Also the Italian propaganda machine uses the fact that both Greece and Yugoslavia have Albania minorities in abundance to keep the international public opinion who is “outraged by the Greek and Serb atrocities towards the Albanians” (some of which in reality really happened) neutral and in some cases even sympathetic to the case of small nations “the Kingdom of Albania”.



It might or it might not work. It essentially depends on whether Britain are sufficiently committed to anti-Soviet committment (otherwise Mussolini suffers an humiliating military or diploatic defeat, and may fall from power, in such a case a moderate conservative-autoritarian military government takes his place). Italian propaganda could and would harp on the Serb misdeeds towards the Albanian and Croat minorities alike. There were extensive links between fascist Italy and Croat separatism.


France is going to gnash their teeth seeing all their old allies (Yugoslavia, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Poland) crumble. Hopefully, this might likely push them to a rightist takeover and some much-needed reforms, instead of isolationism or doing something really stupid (like breaking the alliance with Britain and making one with Stalin).


The Italians and the Germans came out of this small wars and intervention stronger and as the defender of freedom. With their appetite for conquest and wars satisfied Germany and Italy feel that the wrong done by the Versailles Treaty has been reversed and now they are ready to join the rest of the great powers as equals.

Good for them, since Europe is going to get the trial of their generation when the Soviet jaggernaut, armed to the teeth, attacks in 1941-43. However, after much bloodshed, Stalin is overthrown when the Anglo-Germans, hopefully with help from Italy and France, and American financial support, gradually cut down the Red Army until the Soviet strategic reserve is exausted. As long as either Hitler and Stalin are around, you cannot avoid WWII. However, with a moderate neo-Imperial Germany, and Mussolini not being to make too much trouble by hinself, TTL may see a rather happier outcome to WWII, as all of Europe is restored to a decent regime as Stalin is overthrown.

In this Alt-WWII, Europe also fares better because Western Europe and Germany are preserved from destruction, albeit Eastern Europe and Russia shall be absolutely wrecked. Even more so if, as it is likely, Britain and Germany build the nukes by joint effort and use them to crush Soviet resistance for good. If WWII explodes in 1939-40, quite possibly the Allies crush Stalin before developing the bomb, but if the war erupts in 1941-43, they could develop nukes in the latter phase of the war. if Britain and the USSR are at war, most likely Communist spies in the British nuclear program are caught early, and without their leakage, the Soviet nuclear program is delayed well into the 1950s. This bodes ill for Soviet cities...

However, there is still Yamato Japan around to no good...
 
The German army decides to get rid of Hitler after he goes in Czechoslovakia ( early Marc 1939), Great Brittan sees this as a sign of change in the leadership in Germany and decides to forgive and forger Munich as long as Germany plays along.
Mussolini feel threatened and decides to mask the invasion of Albania as a liberation of an oppressed people, he makes good use of his military and of the small Albanian population that lives in southern Italy(they will be the core of the new Albania army)
The war with Greece and Yugoslavia is “started” by The Kingdom of Albania as a reaction to the Greece genocide towards the Albania minority in Epirus or as the Albanians call it Cameri. Italy is “merely” helping and supporting a war of “liberation”.
Great Brittan at this point has never guaranteed anything to Greece and is not going to go to war over a “border dispute”. There is not enough support for Greece. Bulgaria is making its own territorial demands, Turkey is supporting the Albania cause, Yugoslavia stays neutral (it has enough problems of its own plus Italy promises to reign down the Croats and never to make any territorial demand in Kosovo). Great Brittan and France call a conference similar to Munich, Greece keeps most of its territory and that is good enough for Great Brittan (Italy gets only Epirus and the island of Corfu).
As for Yugoslavia that county was domed from the beginning and has no real allies.
Bulgarian will not get all of Macedonia that belongs to “Albania”-Italy. The reason for this is threefold: 1- Italy is not entirely satisfied with what it got from the war with Greece.
2- They have to keep the Albanians quiet and happy. 3- Italy doesn’t need Bulgaria as much Yugoslavia is an easy target. So Bulgaria will get what is left over.
The war between Hungary and Romania will happen in the early 1940.
All the great powers (Great Brittan, France, Italy, Germany) will pressure both parties to make peace, it is true that Hungary is an German and Italian ally but now is time for Italy and Germany to show their good will towards France and Great Brittan and on top of every thing they don’t want to weaken Rumania witch is located on the southern border with Soviet Union. Hungary will get very little of its territorial demands.
As far as Poland after Hitler is gone the leaders of Great Brittan don’t see Germany as a threat to their security in Europe but more of an ally, they pressure Poland to give Dancing and the corridor that the Germans need to get to East Prussia.
After that and Memel Germany gets all its territorial demands. (Nobody in Germany wanted to occupy Poland or Russia there is no real popular support for colonizing Eastern Europe that was all in Hitler’s mind).
Germany at this point wants markets for its product and also wants to find a way to repay the debt that has accumulated.
Apart from the intervention in Finland (together with France, Great Brittan and to some extend Italy) and the Baltic States there will be no more wars for Germany.
As for France there is not much that France can do without the British.
France will never intervene to save Yugoslavia because Yugoslavia can’t be saved.
As far as Romania neither France nor the British thing that Romania should keep all of Transylvania. And the most important thing about France is that France has a defensive strategy (Magino Line), the only French troops outside of France will be in its colonial empire and in Finland.
The Soviet Union will never dare so start the 2 world war. Germany/Great Brittan supported by Italy/France can more than check the Soviets.
The major problem that the Europeans will face are economical and colonial/occupation.
 

General Zod

Banned
The German army decides to get rid of Hitler after he goes in Czechoslovakia ( early Marc 1939), Great Brittan sees this as a sign of change in the leadership in Germany and decides to forgive and forger Munich as long as Germany plays along.


It would seem rather weird for the generals to coup the leader who has added yet another very valuable territory to the Reich without firing a blow. The officers that would oust Hitler just a moral point, because they hated the regime, were not influential enough. They need the support of the pragmatists and the apolitical patriots, who would act only if the country is headed to a war they feel unnecessary, reckless, and too dangerous for the Fatherland.


As such, a coup in March would be rather unplausible, unless you create a PoD where Britain starts being more militant and threatens war over the annexation of Czechia. However, sincerely, IMO it's all just that much simpler if you make the anti-war military conspiracy a bit more organized and resolute and make them act in July-August 1939, when the threat of war over Poland looms closer and closer. Your TL does not need Hitler to fall earlier than that.


Mussolini feel threatened and decides to mask the invasion of Albania as a liberation of an oppressed people, he makes good use of his military and of the small Albanian population that lives in southern Italy(they will be the core of the new Albania army).


Again, with a plausible PoD Hitler falls in summer, when Musso has already annexed Albania. He invaded Albania to "compensate" for the invasion of Czechia. Fascist Italy can use the "liberation" war claim to good effect for Greek Albanians and Croats, against Yugoslavia and later Greece. You can certainly state that ITTL Mussolini uses the "liberation" card for Albania as weel, but it would feel a bit worn, to use it for three invasions in a row. Please drop the ASB idea to use Italian Albanians, they are so few that you could scarcely field an army with their levies (they are 80,000 nowadays).


The war with Greece and Yugoslavia is “started” by The Kingdom of Albania as a reaction to the Greece genocide towards the Albania minority in Epirus or as the Albanians call it Cameri. Italy is “merely” helping and supporting a war of “liberation”.



Too bad that Albania has become a protectorate in personal union with Italy. So the ruse that Italy is merely "helping" them would grow thin (it would be like India would attack the USA and Britain was merely "helping" them). However, the ethnic issue of Southern Epirus has some merit and Britain may or may not buy it. I would Musso started with Yugoslavia first however, he would tread on somewhat safer ground, as London cared little for Yugoslavia, it was a French creation.


Great Brittan at this point has never guaranteed anything to Greece and is not going to go to war over a “border dispute”. There is not enough support for Greece. Bulgaria is making its own territorial demands, Turkey is supporting the Albania cause,


Yes, Britain did garantee Greece and Romania soon after Hitler invaded Czechia and Italy invaded Albania. of course, they might decide not to honor them, if its looks like the coalition against the invaded state is large enough, its crumbling from internal unrest, or it is not defending itself effectively (this factors might well apply to Yugoslavia, less so to Greece, even if Italy+Bulgaria+Turkey would be somewhat impressive and London might just decide not to bother IF they receive sufficient garantees that neither Italy nor Turkey shall mess with Cyprus or the Straits, their big strategic interests in the area). Musso must have pulled some exceptional diplomacy to convince Turkey, that in 1939 was committed to neutrality, to intervene in an area sensible for Britain.


Yugoslavia stays neutral (it has enough problems of its own plus Italy promises to reign down the Croats and never to make any territorial demand in Kosovo).


Oh, the smell of duped Serbs in the morning...:rolleyes:


Great Brittan and France call a conference similar to Munich, Greece keeps most of its territory and that is good enough for Great Brittan (Italy gets only Epirus and the island of Corfu).


This may be reasonable.


As for Yugoslavia that county was domed from the beginning and has no real allies.



Once, they were a French satellite, but in this day, they are going to war for Belgrad, even if Mussolini is a paper tiger in hindsight and France would crush him.


Bulgarian will not get all of Macedonia that belongs to “Albania”-Italy. The reason for this is threefold: 1- Italy is not entirely satisfied with what it got from the war with Greece.
2- They have to keep the Albanians quiet and happy. 3- Italy doesn’t need Bulgaria as much Yugoslavia is an easy target. So Bulgaria will get what is left over.



OK, so I get that Macedonia gets partitioned so that the northwestern area, with a Albanian majority, is annexed to Italy and the rest goes to Bulgaria. Makes sense. However as much as I see it, the other Italian gains from this war would be substantial: Kosova, Dalmatia, and a Croatia-Bosnia puppet state.


The war between Hungary and Romania will happen in the early 1940.
All the great powers (Great Brittan, France, Italy, Germany) will pressure both parties to make peace, it is true that Hungary is an German and Italian ally but now is time for Italy and Germany to show their good will towards France and Great Brittan and on top of every thing they don’t want to weaken Rumania witch is located on the southern border with Soviet Union. Hungary will get very little of its territorial demands.


This is another area I find rather unplausible. If a war does indeed erupt, Germany and Itlay would pull rank to ensure that their best ally in the region, Hungary, comes out of the war with some substantial gain to show. I heartily suggest that something like the OTL Second Vienna Award, which returned Northern Transylvania to Hungary, is the result of the peace settlement. The area had an Hungarian majority, so it makes sense that France and Britain accept the outcome. Besides, Romania was able to take part in OTL Barbarossa fine after the loss of that land. If Hungary still feels unsatisfied, they might try and annex Slovakia. Germany might or might not humor their request, and theirs would be the deciding vote, since Slovakia was a German puppet. But they might decide that sacrificing it to make Hungary even more firmly their satellite and a stronger one would be worth it. However, Hungary would have to return the German-plurality areas to Berlin.

As far as Poland after Hitler is gone the leaders of Great Brittan don’t see Germany as a threat to their security in Europe but more of an ally, they pressure Poland to give Dancing and the corridor that the Germans need to get to East Prussia.



This is quite reasonable an outcome, but they would need to return Upper Silesia to Germany as well. That loss too was much resented, since the Poles has occupied it violating the contrary result of a referendum and it was economically quite valuable.


After that and Memel Germany gets all its territorial demands. (Nobody in Germany wanted to occupy Poland or Russia there is no real popular support for colonizing Eastern Europe that was all in Hitler’s mind).
Germany at this point wants markets for its product and also wants to find a way to repay the debt that has accumulated.


Again, this is quite reasonable an outcome.


Apart from the intervention in Finland (together with France, Great Brittan and to some extend Italy) and the Baltic States there will be no more wars for Germany.


And why on earth Stalin is meekily having his butt kicked by the Quadruple Alliance's Finnish intervention, without treating for what it is, a declaration of war? :eek::rolleyes:

Even if they thinly disguise it as sending "volunteers", they shall need to send a substantial amount of troops to push back the Red Army and break the spine of its attack, even unfit as it was in 1939-40. Stalin is no idiot and this confirms his worst fears about the capitalist great powers closing on him and doing a second RCW intervention. He ought to jump into full paranoid premptive counterattack mode. Even assuming he does not start a full attack in Poland, Romania, and Central Asia, because a smooth-tongued and lucky general (good luck being the fellow that tells him of the Finnish defeat) talks him out of it, pointing out the unpreparedness of the Red Army, he will not lay low by any means. In his mind, war is now inevitable, so he works Russian workers to death building a super-Red Army, which pulls a reverse Barbarossa in 1941-43. You still have a WWII, only with rearranged players, albeit one that USSR will lose badly.


As for France there is not much that France can do without the British.



This is very true.


France will never intervene to save Yugoslavia because Yugoslavia can’t be saved.



Very true if all of its neighbors attack and the Croats are up in arms.


As far as Romania neither France nor the British thing that Romania should keep all of Transylvania.


Hence my proposal they let Hungary have Northern Transylvania, which was mostly Magyar anyway.


The Soviet Union will never dare so start the 2 world war. Germany/Great Brittan supported by Italy/France can more than check the Soviets.


You are not thinking like paranoid Stalin. Their obvious alliance and military intervention in Finland means this is the worst-case scenario fulfilled, they are going to attack the USSR anyway when they are ready and do a second RCW internvention. He must preempt them by whatever means necessary. He will whip the Russian war industry into breakneck high gear as only the NKVD can do, and as soon as he feels ready, unleash a reverse Barbarossa on Europe. He will indeed lose, but A WWII shall occur nonetheless. Heck, he was ready to make such an attack in 1941, Hitler only beat him up to it. At the most maybe he attacks in 1942 or 43, if he feels cautious and wants to build up the Red Army more, after the defeat in Finland.
 
Last edited:
slslslsl

Yes it is true Hitler did add a very valuable territory to Germany but in doing so he made enemies of the British and brought Germany so close to a war that the German Army doesn’t want and isn’t prepare to fight.
On top of everything they never liked Hitler and the Nazis and they feel that Hitler has lost his usefulness.
As far as Italy starting with Albania and then Greece instead of Yugoslavia there is a good reason for that.
First after Hitler is gone (sometime in early March) Mussolini gets cold feet his firs action will be to call a secret meeting with the new leaders of Germany and see were they stand on the important issues, second he will go for Albania but it will be more of a peaceful annexation (some kind of protectorate) than a real occupation (after all at this point the Kingdom of Albania is de facto a semi protectorate: its army is trained by Italians, the foreign policy is dictated by Italy and financially it depends on Italian aid).
As for the Albania minority in southern Italy their number can be swollen artificially by Mussolini if he fills the need. So Mussolini gets Albania in early April 1939. The operation is extremely successful (Albanians don’t offer much resistance).
Greece has to be next, not Yugoslavia for these reasons:
1: The situation in Yugoslavia hasn’t matured enough. Mussolini needs to organize the Croats better and don’t forget that he hasn’t even started to organize the Albanians.
2: Yugoslavia is a bigger target and needs a lot more coordination than Greece.
3: Greece is isolated is a smaller target and has only enemies at her borders.
4: Mussolini need a war (the Albanian campaign wasn’t much of a war more of a peaceful march), he has 2 options a small war with Greece of a bigger one with Yugoslavia (consider the Albanian border with Yugoslavia and that with Greece there is a big difference).
5: The war with Greece will be limited to Epirus, Italy is ready for that.
Now as for the Soviet Union I don’t think Stalin will attach the west as crazy as he was Stalin had an idea of the logistic that are required to conduct a large operation like that unlike Hitler. The only way Stalin decides to attack central and south east Europe in if it has an ally in west Europe and the only possible ally can be France, I don’t see that happening.
 
The German army gets rid of Hitler and the Nazis (at least the most extreme supporters of Hitler) and his racist policies. The invasion of Poland never happens so World War 2 never happens instead Germany intervenes in the Baltic states and Finland “saving” then from the Soviet Union.

The reason why the Soviet Union did its thing in the Baltic and Finland was that it had had a green light from the other bully on the block, Hitler. So the very first step of this TL falls into a hole, sorry.
 
slsls

The reason for the invasion of Finland is pretty simple the Russian always needed a port in the Baltic and Leningrad at this particular time is that port but it is strategically at a disadvantage because Finland and the Baltic states control the entrance to that port. Who controls Finland and the Baltic states can blockade Russia and render its Baltic fleet useless. So to sum it up controlling the Baltic States and Finland is strategically important to the Russians.
 
The reason for the invasion of Finland is pretty simple the Russian always needed a port in the Baltic and Leningrad at this particular time is that port but it is strategically at a disadvantage because Finland and the Baltic states control the entrance to that port. Who controls Finland and the Baltic states can blockade Russia and render its Baltic fleet useless. So to sum it up controlling the Baltic States and Finland is strategically important to the Russians.

Yeah. So why didn't they go grab them, not without getting Hitler's blessing?

How having a different government in Germany, a government that would offer Stalin no Pact, changes Stalin's assessments of the situation, that in OTL were that he needed the Pact before acting?

It is quite obvious that Stalin was afraid that any aggressive move by the pariah of the states, the USSR, would bring about the anti-Soviet alliance v.2.0 (remember when every player of some weight had troops supporting the Whites in the RCW). It is exactly because he was aware of the danger of Germany, probably with Western and Polish backing, coming up to "rescue" the Baltics and Finland, that he waited for Germany to make its proposal.

No German aggressiveness in the East, no proposal, no move by Stalin, QED.
 

General Zod

Banned
Yeah. So why didn't they go grab them, not without getting Hitler's blessing?

How having a different government in Germany, a government that would offer Stalin no Pact, changes Stalin's assessments of the situation, that in OTL were that he needed the Pact before acting?

It is quite obvious that Stalin was afraid that any aggressive move by the pariah of the states, the USSR, would bring about the anti-Soviet alliance v.2.0 (remember when every player of some weight had troops supporting the Whites in the RCW). It is exactly because he was aware of the danger of Germany, probably with Western and Polish backing, coming up to "rescue" the Baltics and Finland, that he waited for Germany to make its proposal.

No German aggressiveness in the East, no proposal, no move by Stalin, QED.

Well, IMO there is a significant window to justify the Soviet expansion in the Baltics, Finland, and Romania (and in perspective Bulgaria and the Straits) in this kind of scenario, but it requires good timing. According to Stalin's worldview, a major war with Germany and/or the Western powers was inevitable by the early-mid '40s. Only the degree he might be able to make a wedge between Germany and UK/France by diplomatic means, and the degree of preparedness of the the Red Army: even if he overestimated it, see Winter War, he was sufficiently aware of basic realities that he would not attack before 1941-43. Before that, he would risk minor wars in Finaldn and Romania if he sees an opening, since he would want to advance westward as much as he can. If Germany and UK/France remain friendly, he could and would risk expansion in the aftermath of the government change in Germany, sensing weakness. IOTL, he did risk a war with the Western powers over Finland, so that would not be a deterrent. So you need to have Soviet expansionist moves to occur soon after the fall of Hitler.

Otherwise, there shall be a cold war between Russia and Germany/UK/France till 1941-43, when reverse Barbarossa happens. WWII in Europe was not avoidable as long as either Hitler OR Stalin was in charge in the 1930s-1940s.
 

General Zod

Banned
Yes it is true Hitler did add a very valuable territory to Germany but in doing so he made enemies of the British and brought Germany so close to a war that the German Army doesn’t want and isn’t prepare to fight.
On top of everything they never liked Hitler and the Nazis and they feel that Hitler has lost his usefulness.

OK, but then you need a PoD by which Britain makes some serious saber-rattling over the invasion of Prague (more so than IOTL where they acquiesced to that but draw a line in the sand about Poland) or it makes no sense.

As far as Italy starting with Albania and then Greece instead of Yugoslavia there is a good reason for that.
First after Hitler is gone (sometime in early March) Mussolini gets cold feet his firs action will be to call a secret meeting with the new leaders of Germany and see were they stand on the important issues, second he will go for Albania but it will be more of a peaceful annexation (some kind of protectorate) than a real occupation (after all at this point the Kingdom of Albania is de facto a semi protectorate: its army is trained by Italians, the foreign policy is dictated by Italy and financially it depends on Italian aid).

Hmm, so Musso is going to be a bit subtle about his expansionist strategy for a change ? Rather out of character for him, but indeed the fall of Hitler might well have given him cold feet.

Greece has to be next, not Yugoslavia for these reasons:
1: The situation in Yugoslavia hasn’t matured enough. Mussolini needs to organize the Croats better and don’t forget that he hasn’t even started to organize the Albanians.
2: Yugoslavia is a bigger target and needs a lot more coordination than Greece.
3: Greece is isolated is a smaller target and has only enemies at her borders.
4: Mussolini need a war (the Albanian campaign wasn’t much of a war more of a peaceful march), he has 2 options a small war with Greece of a bigger one with Yugoslavia (consider the Albanian border with Yugoslavia and that with Greece there is a big difference).
5: The war with Greece will be limited to Epirus, Italy is ready for that.

I see your reasons but I have to remark that 3 is not entirely true since Yugoslavia is just as isolated and has even more enemies at its borders. About 4 consider that Italy can attack Yugoslavia from its eastern border as well as from Albania, it's not obliged to wage all the war through a sea connection to Albania, the logistics are way better, even if the target is bigger.

Now as for the Soviet Union I don’t think Stalin will attach the west as crazy as he was Stalin had an idea of the logistic that are required to conduct a large operation like that unlike Hitler. The only way Stalin decides to attack central and south east Europe in if it has an ally in west Europe and the only possible ally can be France, I don’t see that happening.

A Franco-Soviet alliance is politically very, very difficult in this scenario. Any government that proposes it would be denounced as philo-Communist traitors of Western solidarity.

As fot Stalin would do on his own, see my previous post.
 
slsls

The best reason that Mussolini will go for Greece first is this the Greece campaign will be very limited Greece will still exist as a state only will lose Epirus in the north Yugoslavia will cease to exist as a state. That is a major escalation like I said Mussolini after the fall of Hitler will be more careful and will tone it down.
As for Brittan and France they are arming themselves as fast as then can the German army knows that and that is enough of saber rattling.
 
No admancements in the military, which then will spill over into civilian use.

No women working in factoies, this will throw back the women's rights movement.

Russia becomes a bigger threat, some TL's say they capture europe. Due to having several more soldiers who didn't die in the war.

There will be no baby boom, due to lack of war brides and due to the fact the soldiers will not feel lonely because they never left.

The world will be in a great depression for longer, until the next major war.
 
slslsl

There will be limited wars Germany against USSR, US against the Empire of Japan, and there will be a arms race between Germany, US and GB who will be the only great power left.
 
Top