World War 2 Timeline, stronger Soviets and stronger Nazis

POD: Change in Communist policy in early 1938
Results in stronger Soviets in this timeline (of the billions of potential timelines) some butterflies of this end up making Nazis stronger at time of invasion of USSR, avoids one sided stomp which is boring

1938 March Anchluss
1938 March End of Great Purge, Yezhov blamed for excess
1938 March Spanish Civil War - Aragon Offensive stalls out before the sea, change in Republican strategy away from wasteful offensives, to defensive and guriella
1938 July Failure of Evian Conference (USSR not invited) is followed by Soviet statement that they will take some Jews, raises public opinion for USSR outside antisemites
1938 October Czechoslovakia defies Munich conference, USSR and Republican Spain declare war on Germany and Hungary. Poland and Romania refuse troop transit. End of Jewish flow to USSR during the war. Italy (neutral) and Germany reduce aid to nationalist during the war
1938 December Ceasefire, after occupation of Czechoslovakia. Peace talks with Soviets will last for a while, included is how many refugees they'll take, ends up becoming Molotov Ribbentrop Pact. Fun fact: Republican Spain never signed a peace treaty until 2008
1939 February Nationalists reach the sea cutting Republican Spain in half, no ebro offensive, Republican's order to hold and wait for European war, hoping allies will stop appeasement
1939 July Cominterm meet to lay out communist strategy for future, some changes internally and in USSR after great Purge
1939 August USSR Japan treaty, secret elements refer to division of China, requires Japan never to ally with Germany
1939 September Poland, backed by Romania, but not as strongly backed by Allies (because Hitler didn't break any treaty) refuses Danzig. Poland still refused to consider any alliance with USSR, sabotaging talks between allies and USSR.
1939 September Hungary joins the war with Poland and Romania because of their claims when it seems that allies won't join
1939 September After ten days of dithering, ultimatums and Hitler playing the allies France and the UK declare war.
1939 French troops and citizens begin pouring into Republican Spain
1939 September Soviet troops move into Poland and Romania ostensibly to protect the place from fascists. The nonaggression pact with Germany stipulates no aggression between the two, including attacking territory occupied by the other.
1939 October Late in the month Budapest and Warsaw fall, the German army having swept across Poland and down through Hungary into Transylvania
Soviets occupy Moldovia, and the mouth of the Danube, giving some territory to Bulgaria. Soviets begin fortifying their side of mountain passes.
Iron Legion Wallachia becomes Nazi puppet with troops at the oil Wells. Romanian King flees to Switzerland with gold
Everything within the Carpathian goes to Hungary.
1939 December Portugal, encouraged by the UK, declares war on nationalist Spain, seeing their imminent collapse and wanting to take advantage. Occupies Canaries and begins invading Galacia.
1940 March/April Three way invasion of Scandinavia as allies, led by a more confident French, seek to cut off Swedish ore, because allies start invasion they look bad and attacking Sweden brings Sweden into axis. Soviets occupy Finland, Nazis occupy Sweden, Norway, Denmark. Allies occupy Greenland, Iceland and Faroe Islands
1940 May Fall of Low Countries
1940 June Nationalist Spain pushed back to only the south, holding Granada and Africa
1940 June Fall of France, no halt order at Dunkirk, British completely captured.
1940 June Because of diversion in Iberia Hitler decides against sea lion much quicker, freeing up troops. This allows him ability to do something else he always wanted. Smaller Battle of Britain continues, with less commitment from both as they also fight over Iberia
1940 July Nazi invasion of Switzerland with Italy who really try to perform better after their terrible showing in France.
1940 August Nazi Panzers link with Franco territory in Spain
1940 November Last Allied presence expelled from Iberia as Portugal falls, Nazis occupy Portugal and Catalonia and Basque.
1940 November Italians still do shit in North Africa and decide to invade Greece to show their not incompetent. This shows their incompetence.
1941 March Axis invasion of Yugoslavia, Bulgaria joins Axis
1941 April Greece falls with less losses because less British troops because med is more axis because of Gibraltar falling, this means there are no more independent countries in Europe apart from Ireland. Ireland, UK, Soviets and Axis covers all European territory
1941 April Iraq revolt
1941 April Turkey joins Axis, scared of soviet occupation at mouth of Danube, and also axis domination of med
1941 May Axis troops reinforce Iraq and North Africa
1941 May Axis founds European New Order a response to Soviet congresses. Turkey and Iraq not invited. The new order results in what becomes known as the shuffle West as most countries move their centre of mass west. Massive population movements are planned but only small ones carried out because of the war.
Before Barbarossa situation looks like this:
Germany - annexed Belgium, Netherlands, French Flanders, Czechia, and parts of Alsace. German Switzerland. Also annexed parts of Denmark and Poland. Germany theoretically annexed Dutch East Indies and East Timor.
Italy - Italian Switzerland, Corsica, Baleric Islands, parts of France, Malta, Tunis, French Somalialand
France - joining axis, gain Catalonia and Basque land, French Switzerland, Andorra, gains Belgian and Spanish Congo and Portuguese colonies
Spain - annexes Portugal including Islands and French morroco
Northern Germanic Union - Hitler's brain child, contains Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Mainly operates from Stockholm as Sweden only one to join the axis and not be occupied. The three Kings of Scandinavia form a triumvirate, laws can be signed by two of the three to he legal, but still a democracy underneath them, significant regional autonomy, but one army and foreign policy and currency.
Hungary - restored to old size, including Slovakia
Yugoslavia and Greece remain under occupation zones with puppet states, but not final. Some areas are given out but disputes between Turkey, Greece, Italy and Germany mean that they decide to deal with the Balkan issue after the conclusion of the war, everyone but Hitler thinks that means when Britain surrenders
All other countries have no more occupation zones, European New Order collaborate on building an Atlantic wall so troops from all countries are along the Atlantic territory of Germany, France and Spain.
Mediterranean is almost axis lake and axis are pushing towards suez from North and south, elsewhere most colonies conquered by UK

Any questions?
 
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Quick map, missing a lot of the changes. If anyone has a link to a 1941 high res map (qbam or something) I can make it clearer.

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German War
[forgot to mention one of the butterflies from soviets welcoming jews and a change to their science policy means that the manhattan project is massively slowed, no nukes in this timeline by any power until 1950]

Asia Timeline:
1937-06 - Minor Soviet excursion into Manchukuo defeated decisively by Japanese
1937-07-07 - Marco Polo Bridge Incident begins Second Sino-Japanese War
1938-08 (after POD) - Battle of Lake Khasan, due to lessened purges Soviet's in a much stronger position:
OTL said:
Starting in the lead up to the battle a wave of purges in the far eastern front had caused many officers in the army to be new inexperience officers who feared to take the initiative, in July alone four and a half times as many people were purged from the front as in the previous twelve months.[17] This in combination with a lack of infrastructure, the overburdening of the front’s commander, marshal Blücher, a shortage of equipment and poor organization led to the front being in poor shape.[17]

The confrontation was triggered when the Soviet Far East Army and Soviet State Security (NKVD) Border Guard reinforced its Khasan border with Manchuria. This was prompted in part by the defection one month before, of Soviet General G. S. Lyushkov, in charge of all NKVD forces in the Soviet Far East at Hunchun, in the Tumen River Area. He provided the Japanese with intelligence on the poor state of Soviet Far Eastern forces and the purge of army officers.[18]

Soviet's move to occupy disputed territory, Japan sends protest which is rejected, Japanese attack and are defeated more soundly than OTL, this weakens northern doctrine supporters more substantially than OTL but not enough to prevent Kwangtung Army trying again. Soviets learn many lessons regarding communication, logistics and combined arms.

1939 May to July With Stalin's firm orders to be put a strong show against the Japanese the disputed areas in Mongolia are grazed upon by Mongolian cavalry. Japanese respond and the situation escalates. Culminates in the solid defeat of the Japanese at hands of Zhukov. Again with fewer officer purges this defeat is more lopsided than OTL and ends earlier.

1939 August A Soviet-Japanese Nonaggression Pact (2 years earlier than OTL) is signed, very similar to the one with the Nazis, it has secret agreements. Stalin wants to divide China with the Japanese, one of his policy changes. He withdraws all support for the Nationalists and begins aiding the Communists which he didn't do OTL very much. He tells Mao to focus on the Ma Clique (interior China) while Japan aims to take the coast and southern China. Stalin also sends a soviet advisor or two to Tokyo in order to help with the war planning for China and then beyond. As they are keeping it secret there is no official declaration that Soviets are attacking China. When Allies ask Soviets wtf Soviets say they are securing their borders and won't bleed for the Allies. When the Allies deem it right to have a front so will they, and they aren't ready for war and lack offensive capabilities.

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The Green Line marks the demarcation in the secret treaties between Japan and the Soviets. The Brown Line for the Nazis. Roughly

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Big changes from this is that the two countries begin to have warmer relations with each other including trade and more oil for Japan. Since Manchukuo seems safer there is more development of the massive oil fields there. This has bigger consequences later when Japan still looks south.


1940 07 - Governor of Indochina declares for Free France and then is pressured by Japan into accepting troops. He delays as much as possible but less than OTL because he can't rely on Vichy, because of shorter delay no Japanese army attacking for no reason.

1940 12 - Thailand attacks France, war progresses for a few weeks before Japan steps in as part of their we're in charge of asia now policy (lots of Asia for Asians propaganda as OTL)

1941 03 - Conclusion of peace between Indochina and Thailand biggest change is Japanese troops garrison in Thailand, justification is to keep the peace after minor border changes in favour of Thailand in return for money but really is just make Thailand a puppet. Thailand is promised more as well as parts of British Burma and Malaya. America is outraged at this and begins sanctions similar to OTL, Soviets encourage Japanese to avoid bringing USA into the war (scared that this will lead to a stronger China) and tell them to focus on the Allies. Soviets also keep sabotaging Japanese-Axis relations so Axis are closed to China than OTL

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Operation Barbarossa

1941 07 - Delayed and weaker compared to OTL because of the extra theaters as well as resistance. Stronger than OTL because of European New Order making better use of the resources of Europe, and the Med being safe (soon when they capture Suez) for ENO shipping. Weaker because of northern front being smaller (not all of Finland, just through Finnmark and Sami land) stronger because of longer Romanian and Polish fronts as well as Turkish fronts. Biggest changes is Stalin was prepared and doesn't ignore all the warnings. This change is huge but Hitler doesn't care and wants to attack, he doesn't want to wait for UK (he sees their fall as inevitable, literally just UK and Ireland are only non-European New Order powers and USSR) and doesn't want to wait for Soviets to get stronger. Because of the preparation the attack does much worse with Soviet aircraft being able to obtain local air superiority in a few places. They aren't caught off guard like OTL. They immediately bomb the Wallachian oil fields, the only use of strategic bombing by Soviets in the entire war.

In the first offense the Soviets fall back but not as far as OTL, the Molotov Line falls first, then the Stalin line is cracking when winter sets in. With the start of the war the Jewish problem is brought back up as Jews can't be deported to the Soviets any longer. ENO makes every nation complicit by passing their version of Numerberg Laws at the Conference. This begins process of final solution except there's no countries to escape to now. The countries are also culpable because they all have been forcing their new provinces into allegiance. Though Catalan is probably happier under France than Spain.

1941 09 - In cooperation with UK Soviets invade Iran to secure lendlease, ENO navy is much scarier with all of the members and without the massive losses invading Norway. The UK promises to leave but the Soviets make no promises. Iran was pro Axis and Stalin provides the UK with evidence they were ready to join it. The Soviets follow it up by invading Afghanistan and show the same pro Axis documents showing that they wanted to support Iraq and attack the Raj.

Afghanistan resisted calls from Moscow and London to expel the Italian and German diplomatic corps at the beginning of the Second World War. During 1940 and 1941, there were plans initiated by Afghan economic minister Abdul Majid Zabuli for Afghanistan to join the Axis bloc in return for Germany providing additional military aid and access to the Karachi Port by taking land from British India. In addition, Zabuli spoke of "liberating" the 15 million strong ethnic Afghan population across the border

The British protest this but not very strongly and when Stalin gives the Raj the Pashtun areas this makes them complicit.

1941-12 - Striking from Thailand and Indochina Japan invades the Dutch East Indies and Malaysia and Burma, bypassing the Philippines and making a lot of noise about not attacking USA vessels, including those delivering lend lease to the USSR in the north.

This is great for Hitler who was under pressure from his generals regarding the Soviet war. There is a lot of anti communist fever however and no one wants to surrender to the Soviets but they were worried about the British still being there. Africa goes well for Hitler with the Suez in site and he makes lots of speeches about how Britain will soon lose India then surrender and the Soviets will fall to the next offensive, etc.

1942-03 - Suez is captured, after having being almost completely ruined by the retreating British forces, British and Soviet forces begin pushing forward in Iraq and Turkey. Jerusalem is destroyed by ENO and their Arabic supporters.

1942
ENO stalls against Soviets.
Japan sweeps the South.
USA lend lease skyrockets.
Brits seek victories in the skies and colonies.

Over the course of the year the forces of the European New Order push the Soviets (who are completely avoiding offensives on the main front) to the Dnieper and Daugava, this will be the furthest extent they manage. A number of attempted invasions were made along the Black Sea but cautious Soviet air usage is able to surprise the ENO forces shortly after landings. The front is basically static in Turkey as there is a massive 200km gap with no infrastructure, instead Iraq is pushed back in the north by the Soviets and the south by the Commonwealth.

In Asia the Japanese move incredibly quickly in a matter of months seizing hundreds of islands and most of the Dutch East Indies. Burma is invaded and Singapore falls. After capturing French Caledonia and the Free French Pacific Islands they announce to Asia that they have successfully expelled one European colonial power from the Pacific. This improves their reputation with Asians and Americans. They do the same with Macau and Timor Leste, announcing the end of Portugal (though this nation only exists in London and British occupied Atlantic islands). Once the DEI fall they will have expelled the Dutch, leaving just the British (and the USA) in the Pacific. They intend to expel the Europeans from India too (they separate the Pacific region and Indian region in order to increase propaganda).

In the USA the war fever which has been encouraged by Roosevelt is building but the nation is split in direction, some want to aid China against Japan and others who want to stop the ENO. With China cut off from lend lease the decision is made to focus on the Atlantic theater. MacArthur is outraged but he gets tons of money to build up a defense in case Japan attacks.

The British with their Commonwealth and London governments (the many exiled troops) have successfully taken control of all of Africa south of the Sahara and ENO islands and colonies in the Americas. The British are struggling more because they've lost the Med and they're facing the whole of Europe united against them. ENO forces have been slower at implementing USW to avoid bringing the USA into the war but with the Soviets not falling as quickly as Hitler had hoped the USW starts up and this gives the USA a lot of incidents since they're just as not neutral as OTL.

1943
Dominions Attacked and Japanese Invasion of India - Japan seek ceasefire and end of war with Australia and New Zealand, only want Papua New Guinea from Australia as well as a number of islands. New Zealand is quick to surrender and sends convoys to support Britain via Panama. The goal of bringing New Zealand to peace is to cut off Australia from the world and force them to peace. They don't want to invade.
Soviet Policy in Europe is to encircle and destroy any German breakthrough but hold the main front and refuse to attack until Allies open a new front on the European continent, citing lack of offensive capabilities. Focus on side theaters. Soviet's also propaganda in the territory about how great they are and build up partisan networks but don't activate them. Allied bombing campaign is used to show how evil Allies are compared to Soviets, Bomber Harris is Stalin's favourite Brit.
USA declares war on Germany.
Allied Forces push up along Atlantic coast of Africa and along Red Sea and via Iraq. Aim to take Europe from the south, another peninsular war.

1944
End of 'the Chinese Incident': Communist China and Japanese Puppet China split the region. Significant partisans, not all communists listen to Mao and Stalin's order to wait. Communist Chinese take Tibet.
India: Japanese forces enter Bhutan and eastern Nepal after beating pushing past Bengal.
USA election campaign about whether to declare war on Japan, whether to focus on Germany or switch to Japan. Lots of alternate histories written about different results from election. Focus ends up being on Germany and Japan who had prepared to attack should election go other way breathes sigh of relief. Focuses on digesting conquests (read cultural genocide and actual genocide) and invading Australia and India.
Anatolia falls to mostly Soviets while Brits fight in Syria and Sinai

1945
Joint American and Allied invasion of Spain, Soviets begin moderate and careful offensives as promised. Stalin watches with care at progress of democracies through Europe. Also makes sure his troops are super nice and kind and welcomes any surrendering ENO troops as fellow workers who have been oppressed by fascists. He knows who the biggest threat is. Because of the carefulness of Soviets Hitler is more scared about the rapidly advancing Allies and sends lots of troops there. He tells his followers that the Allies will sign a peace and help against the communists but they need to be shown that they can't just roll over the ENO otherwise they'll do that and do the same thing with new subservient government after same 1918 peace and everyone
Japanese advances continue but pretty slowly.

1946
American troops land in Normandy and Gascon, push up Peninsular. Massive scramble by ENO to deal with this. Soviets make push in Baltic sea, seizing Borholm and Gotland, pushing down through Scandinavia, they also occupy Bulgaria and coastal Romania, bringing the whole Black Sea into a second red Sea (the first being the Red Sea hahah).
Australia surrenders in the Pacific, leaving just India. Japan have been raiding everywhere in the Gulf from their base in Ceylon and Africa coast including Madagascar. Allied ships basically have to cling to African coast. This ends up bringing Saudi Arabia into the war in favor of Allies (which they strongly were as OTL).
By end of 1946 massive offensives by allies and USSR into Europe. Balkans all commie, Iberia all democracy, France a lot democracy.

London (exiled) governments: at war with either ENO or ENO and Japan (depends if they have colonies)
UK and its Empire (sans Australia and New Zealand): at war with ENO and Japan
USA: at war with ENO, massive sanctions on Japan, lend-lease to India, UK and USSR
USSR: at war with ENO, neutrality pact with UK, USA and Japan
Australia and New Zealand: at war with ENO, ceasefire with Japan

1947
Commies meet Democracy in Western Germany and Northern Italy.

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Rough map of the front lines.

USA declares war on Japan. Japanese attacks Philippines from all sides. Siege of Philippines begins.

Stalin thinks about what to do. Should he declare war on Allies or on Japan? OTL he wanted to invade immediately but the nukes stopped him apparently. Ideally he'd have them both bleed to death on each other then conquer both. Lot of commie supporters in allied Europe.
 

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Any questions?

Stalin going with allies or Japanese? Maybe I could write both.

The title could be changed I think, everyone is stronger.

Major sides
European New Order, Co Prosperity Sphere, Communist International, USA, London Governments + Commonwealth
 
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Map of World after fall of ENO, prior to USA declaration against Japan, thin yellow line indicates Japanese patrolled waters.
 
1938 October Czechoslovakia defies Munich conference, USSR and Republican Spain declare war on Germany and Hungary. Poland and Romania refuse troop transit. End of Jewish flow to USSR during the war. Italy (neutral) and Germany reduce aid to nationalist during the war
1938 December Ceasefire, after occupation of Czechoslovakia. Peace talks with Soviets will last for a while, included is how many refugees they'll take, ends up becoming Molotov Ribbentrop Pact.

Eh. If Czechoslovakia fights, then it's very hard for France to remain neutral.

Britain will remain neutral, OTOH. But it's a distinct possibility that a German U-Boot torpedoes a British cargo ship, mistaking it for a French or Soviet one. Or a sea mine, or some other event at sea that both awakens the British to the naval threat Germany is, regardless of what they do in the Sudeten, and also provides them with a casus belli. Then it's a maybe that Britain decides to get it over with.

If the Soviets are any serious, they'll defy the Romanian or Polish stance by sending air units to Slovakia. That will mean not just German-Soviet naval engagements in the Baltic, but also air battles over Prague. After that, assuming the French want out too and the British have not jumped down their fence, a ceasefire is a vague possibility, but the great friendship of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact seems really off.
 
Thanks for your comment, really appreciate the feedback

Eh. If Czechoslovakia fights, then it's very hard for France to remain neutral.

France publicly agreed to the Munich agreement, I'm sure there are timelines when they do fight but I don't think it's impossible especially considering how if the the politicians spoke to their officers they'd tell them they're incapable of anything just as OTL.

Britain will remain neutral, OTOH. But it's a distinct possibility that a German U-Boot torpedoes a British cargo ship, mistaking it for a French or Soviet one. Or a sea mine, or some other event at sea that both awakens the British to the naval threat Germany is, regardless of what they do in the Sudeten, and also provides them with a casus belli. Then it's a maybe that Britain decides to get it over with.

Yeah, that's why Germans are safer in TTL than OTL. The super aggressive navy is overruled by Hitler because of the weaker German position, same reason that Hitler dismisses Sea Lion straight away. The only time the German navy does anything is during Scandinavian Invasion. After the Fall of France it becomes clear Britain is gonna go for the war so they're unleashed.

If the Soviets are any serious, they'll defy the Romanian or Polish stance by sending air units to Slovakia. That will mean not just German-Soviet naval engagements in the Baltic, but also air battles over Prague. After that, assuming the French want out too and the British have not jumped down their fence, a ceasefire is a vague possibility, but the great friendship of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact seems really off.

They do have air battles. There is no friendship pact OTL precisely because of that. The two nations are outwardly hostile, however it isn't like Hitler has any choice. He's geopolitically forced to and Stalin's position hasn't changed at all. He doesn't want to bleed for the West once they've shown they won't even join.

No naval engagements in the Baltic. The Soviets don't want to risk their navy against superior German forces while the Germans don't want to annoy the Nordic countries.
 
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France publicly agreed to the Munich agreement,

Yes - on the basis that the Czechs wouldn't fight. If they fight, they sure as hell invoke the French alliance. The very point of Munich was "solving" the problem without this happening. If it happens, either the French pay no heed to the call for help, which destroys the French foreign policy and sinks their treaties with Poland and Romania, or they fight. Maybe no more enthusiastically than they did in OTL 1939, but they have to.

They do have air battles. There is no friendship pact OTL precisely because of that.

I'll be clearer: a "white peace" is a vague possibility. Calling that "the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact" is an overstatement, though.
The cooperation in assigning "spheres of influence" in Eastern Europe, let alone the all-important economic agreements - these are what you can call that Pact - seem very unlikely.
 

nbcman

Donor
Questions to the OP
  • Why did Republican Spain declare war on Germany during the Czechoslovakian war and in the middle of the civil war?
  • Why did the French invade (Nationalist) Spain after declaring war on Germany? There's no mention of an alliance between Nat Spain and Germany nor is there a mention of a DoW by France onto the Nat Spanish.
  • How did Hungary end up with Slovakia after 30 days of being in the war? Germany wasn't known for its generosity.
  • Why is Germany occupying Sweden? The WAllied invasion brought them in as an allied nation to Germany but the Germans occupy them and force a government on them? It reads like a HOI attempt to create the Scandinavian puppet as opposed to what would happen in real life.
  • Germany and Italy invade Switzerland because....you want to eliminate a colored blob in the map?
  • Why would there be a 1941 invasion of Yugoslavia with a far worse British performance-and most likely no British guarantee of Greece.
  • Turkey wasn't going to jump in to the Axis camp in 1941 simply because the Soviets were slightly further south than OTL.
  • Even with a poorer British performance, the Axis isn't going to dominate the Eastern Med in 1941. The RN did IOTL and would ITTL kick the RM's butt.
  • Why would (Vichy) France join the Axis when the Axis are dismembering their empire? How is the Germany economy dealing with the loss of the French POW laborers plus the 5 million RM of occupation costs levied on France in 1941 alone? How is the KM pursuing the Battle of the Atlantic after losing their bases when France was let loose?
  • Why would the Soviets agree to western China (beyond something something makes the map looks better) when the areas of value are in the East? Especially considering the Soviets have had the upper hand in military clashes with the IJA and have historical claims in Manchuria.
  • How does a NA treaty between the Soviets and Japanese result in more oil for Japan? The Soviets would still be strategic rivals to Japan and would not want to strengthen them unnecessarily.
  • BTW-there wouldn't be development of the OTL Daqing oil fields as no one would be looking there. There are numerous threads on here about Daqing and the conventional wisdom in the 1930s and 1940s was that oil fields were at ancient oceans or seas. Daqing didn't meet that criteria. EDIT: I was going to put up a link to some of those discussions, but you liked my post from September in another thread where I brought up the issues with Daqing and Sakhalin oil fields being developed earlier.
  • How did the Germans manage to avoid an incident in the Atlantic which would bring the US in the war in 1942? If not, the American trade / lend lease would be an avalanche as compared to OTL without the Germans contesting the Atlantic trade routes.
  • How did the Japanese change their strategy which compelled them to attack the US Pacific forces?
  • Why did the Allies bother with Spanish invasion in 1945 as opposed to going into France? The Allied bases were in the UK and France is the closest and best target to bring force to bear on the Axis forces. Spain is a backwater with poor infrastructure and it wouldn't be any better ITTL 1945 after multiple years of war.
  • When the US DOWs the Japanese in 1947, the Japanese have enough force to besiege the Philippines? You might want to check out the Two Ocean Act and see how HUGE the USN would be by that time in comparison to what the IJN could produce.
 
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Yes - on the basis that the Czechs wouldn't fight. If they fight, they sure as hell invoke the French alliance. The very point of Munich was "solving" the problem without this happening. If it happens, either the French pay no heed to the call for help, which destroys the French foreign policy and sinks their treaties with Poland and Romania, or they fight. Maybe no more enthusiastically than they did in OTL 1939, but they have to.

Well I do think that it will harm their relationships which is why Romania (no point in Romanian bridgehead if allies abandon again) and Poland fought Germany and France waited much longer to join in than in otl during September.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. Remember no one asked the Czechs at Munich.

"Czechoslovakia was informed by Britain and France that it could either resist Nazi Germany alone or submit to the prescribed annexations."

I believe it's possible France would turn around and defend Czechoslovakia anyway, but I don't think that it's asb for them to stay out.


I'll be clearer: a "white peace" is a vague possibility. Calling that "the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact" is an overstatement, though.
The cooperation in assigning "spheres of influence" in Eastern Europe, let alone the all-important economic agreements - these are what you can call that Pact - seem very unlikely.

I think it seemed pretty unlikely on the face of otl. But I don't see what pressures have changed. Stalin tried to fight Germany before they got too strong, the allies refused and so he's going to reconcile to them, exactly as otl.

The friendship won't be talked about I agree. Propaganda in both nations will be very aggressive but equally the leaders can justify the neutrality pact to prepare for the future. This is part of the reason there's no surprise for Barbarossa.

The trade is likely to go through one border town and not be mentioned in any newspaper. Both countries want to trade (especially Germany who would collapse without it) but neither want to make a big deal about it.

If Germany doesn't approach the Soviets then they will likely collapse from the lack of materials. Why wouldn't Stalin go for it this tl? Or do you think Germans won't approach?

Thanks for the questions, helps me to expand
 
Great questions!

Questions to the OP
  • Why did Republican Spain declare war on Germany during the Czechoslovakian war and in the middle of the civil war?
Because of Stalin and to try to get international support. They expected France and Britain to not stand by and watch.

  • Why did the French invade (Nationalist) Spain after declaring war on Germany? There's no mention of an alliance between Nat Spain and Germany nor is there a mention of a DoW by France onto the Nat Spanish.
France held itself back enormously during Spanish Civil War to avoid provoking Germans. Once you're at war with Germany French support would flow freely through the border.

  • How did Hungary end up with Slovakia after 30 days of being in the war? Germany wasn't known for its generosity.
Fait accompli, thegGerman plans for otl involved ignoring Slovakia after cutting Czechia off and accepting German troops along Polish border.

  • Why is Germany occupying Sweden? The WAllied invasion brought them in as an allied nation to Germany but the Germans occupy them and force a government on them? It reads like a HOI attempt to create the Scandinavian puppet as opposed to what would happen in real life.
They aren't occupying Sweden though they have troops there from supporting the war and aid in garrisons, Scandinavia is basically ruled from Stockholm.

  • Germany and Italy invade Switzerland because....you want to eliminate a colored blob in the map?
Look how close it came to happening in otl, and this tl with sea lion not tying up troops I can't see why Hitler wouldn't do it. He almost did it while his army was unprepared.

  • Why would there be a 1941 invasion of Yugoslavia with a far worse British performance-and most likely no British guarantee of Greece.
I don't know why Britain wouldn't guarantee Greece, they want everyone to fight. Yugoslavia otl was in a terrible spot for a coup so I don't out being worse would stop the coup.

  • Turkey wasn't going to jump in to the Axis camp in 1941 simply because the Soviets were slightly further south than OTL.
Turkey almost did the same otl so why do you think that? The negotiations over what they wanted from Iraq stalled out. They don't join at first, just allow troop movements, hence why they aren't part of ENO but when Barbarossa happens they are dragged in. Probably Britain might declare on them for violating neutrality anyway.

  • Even with a poorer British performance, the Axis isn't going to dominate the Eastern Med in 1941. The RN did IOTL and would ITTL kick the RM's butt.
I may have made that comment too early then. Malta could've easily fell otl with a more Southern look, without Gibraltar all and Malta the Brits operate from Cyprus and Alexandria. Perhaps I meant to say western med.

  • Why would (Vichy) France join the Axis when the Axis are dismembering their empire? How is the Germany economy dealing with the loss of the French POW laborers plus the 5 million RM of occupation costs levied on France in 1941 alone? How is the KM pursuing the Battle of the Atlantic after losing their bases when France was let loose?
Well they offered to join under the same conditions pretty much otl, taking German currency and everything, so I'd say because all of the french in charge of vichy were Nazi bootlickers?

Why would the Soviets agree to western China (beyond something something makes the map looks better) when the areas of value are in the East? Especially considering the Soviets have had the upper hand in military clashes with the IJA and have historical claims in Manchuria.

Similar to why would the Nazis agree to the baltic and Finland. The Soviets have the upper hand but they don't want a war. This change of policy as reorientatated soviet long term goals.

Japanese conquest of China is great for soviet eventual take over of China because they'll be seen much better in comparison. Holding the interior means that the Soviets control the water supply for the entire coast. Holding Tibet gives them the water supply for all of India, Burma and China. Massive strategic position (hence why China wants it now)

  • How does a NA treaty between the Soviets and Japanese result in more oil for Japan? The Soviets would still be strategic rivals to Japan and would not want to strengthen them unnecessarily.

  • Could I repeat this word for word with Nazis? The na is the same as the Nazi pact.
  • BTW-there wouldn't be development of the OTL Daqing oil fields as no one would be looking there. There are numerous threads on here about Daqing and the conventional wisdom in the 1930s and 1940s was that oil fields were at ancient oceans or seas. Daqing didn't meet that criteria. EDIT: I was going to put up a link to some of those discussions, but you liked my post from September in another thread where I brought up the issues with Daqing and Sakhalin oil fields being developed earlier.
Fair enough, must've confused it with not looking because of the strategic danger of the area. Didn't they get oil from Sakhalin already?

  • How did the Germans manage to avoid an incident in the Atlantic which would bring the US in the war in 1942? If not, the American trade / lend lease would be an avalanche as compared to OTL without the Germans contesting the Atlantic trade routes.
Well they didn't use their navy until the fall of France except during scandinavian invasions. Otherwise you might be right.

  • How did the Japanese change their strategy which compelled them to attack the US Pacific forces?
It was a pretty close run thing otl and with the Soviets subtly helping them they don't need to respond as drastically to us sanctions. Soviet policy requests they let the USA lie and so this advice from their proto ally swings the scales.

  • Why did the Allies bother with Spanish invasion in 1945 as opposed to going into France? The Allied bases were in the UK and France is the closest and best target to bring force to bear on the Axis forces. Spain is a backwater with poor infrastructure and it wouldn't be any better ITTL 1945 after multiple years of war.
I always heard Spain would be a great place to invade had it joined the axis but I didn't do much research for that part. With a tl this all encompassing its easy to miss these things. I'll scrap the Spainish part then.

  • When the US DOWs the Japanese in 1947, the Japanese have enough force to besiege the Philippines? You might want to check out the Two Ocean Act and see how HUGE the USN would be by that time in comparison to what the IJN could produce.

Well I wondered if American focus on Germany might not put them in a similar position to otl except without a surprise attack and a prepared Philippines. Similarly the Japanese have had China and resources from the rest of the area, including oil to supply.

But the Pacific war is not my area of expertise so if it's going to be that one sided then it makes Stalin's decision easy. The idea of this timeline was not to make the USA 10x ahead of USSR in cold War as it was otl
 
Well I do think that it will harm their relationships which is why Romania (no point in Romanian bridgehead if allies abandon again) and Poland fought Germany and France waited much longer to join in than in otl during September.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. Remember no one asked the Czechs at Munich.

"Czechoslovakia was informed by Britain and France that it could either resist Nazi Germany alone or submit to the prescribed annexations."

I believe it's possible France would turn around and defend Czechoslovakia anyway, but I don't think that it's asb for them to stay out.

You do understand you are making a case that the Czechs fighting is extremely unlikely, right? No one asked them to attend Munich, and they were told they'd fight with no support from the West. They had an alliance with the USSR too, but the Soviets weren't invited at Munich either.

So the likely scenario is the OTL one: they cave in.

If they don't, then the unlikely has happened, and has entirely changed the assumptions that underpin both the OTL sequence of events - and your analysis above.


I think it seemed pretty unlikely on the face of otl. But I don't see what pressures have changed. Stalin tried to fight Germany before they got too strong, the allies refused and so he's going to reconcile to them, exactly as otl.

The friendship won't be talked about I agree. Propaganda in both nations will be very aggressive but equally the leaders can justify the neutrality pact to prepare for the future. This is part of the reason there's no surprise for Barbarossa.

The trade is likely to go through one border town and not be mentioned in any newspaper. Both countries want to trade (especially Germany who would collapse without it) but neither want to make a big deal about it.

Huh, no. The Soviets in OTL absolutely wanted the trade to be part of a general political solution of the relations between the two countries, not to mention the issue of spheres of influence. The Germans were the one approaching the Soviets - and they mainly were focused on bypassing the obvious danger of a naval blockade on imports from overseas. But the Soviets need the trade much less than the Germans. For them, the trade was meaningful only as part of the whole package.

The documents of the German foreign ministry on this issue are available for free online. Have a look.

Now, in OTL the German-Russian rapprochement seemed impossible. The years of propaganda, alone, made it extremely difficult. If you read Schnurre's telegrams, you'll notice how distrustful, suspicious and slow the Soviets look to him.
Now imagine that on top of that, the guns have stopped talking a week ago.
 
snip

1940 March/April Three way invasion of Scandinavia as allies, led by a more confident French, seek to cut off Swedish ore, because allies start invasion they look bad and attacking Sweden brings Sweden into axis.

snip

Any questions?

What made the Allies jump into Scandinavia with both feet without a casus belli ITTL, when IOTL they didn't do it because Finland wouldn't provide them with a diplomatic figleaf by officially asking help during the Winter War? Why are the French so gung ho about breaking the neutrality of the Norwegians and Swedes, with all the diplomatic fallout they would know this action would create?

Also, why would Sweden go *Axis pretty much off the bat? The Swedish tradition of neutrality would dictate that while they will defend themselves against any foreign aggression, they also try to hold on to neutrality and avoid joining the other side of the war for as long as possible. If Finland could fight over three months against the USSR without asking anyone's help (and thus escalating the conflict), Sweden can also fight an Allied attack against its northern parts for months at least before stooping as low as to ask for, or even accept, German support. During that time, we might even see a truce being worked out between Sweden and the Allies, rather than an escalation happening. Sweden going *Axis would not be in the Allied interest, and thus if the war drags on, Paris and London might come to reconsider their attitude towards Sweden if Stockholm as much as alludes to them that it is about to turn to Berlin for help.

To be blunt, in short it sort of seems like you are operating on a sort of video game logic with the events in the Nordic/Scandinavian area here. Also nations like Portugal, etc, suddenly joining the war when they IOTL didn't seems suspect - what exactly happened ITTL? Several European political leaders caught a belligerence virus of some sort?;)
 
You do understand you are making a case that the Czechs fighting is extremely unlikely, right? No one asked them to attend Munich, and they were told they'd fight with no support from the West. They had an alliance with the USSR too, but the Soviets weren't invited at Munich either.

So the likely scenario is the OTL one: they cave in.

If they don't, then the unlikely has happened, and has entirely changed the assumptions that underpin both the OTL sequence of events - and your analysis above.

And here they have the Soviets supporting them more. Sure maybe it's still 60% more likely they cave, in this timeline I've went with the 40%. I'm happy for you to write another timeline based off mine.





Huh, no. The Soviets in OTL absolutely wanted the trade to be part of a general political solution of the relations between the two countries, not to mention the issue of spheres of influence. The Germans were the one approaching the Soviets - and they mainly were focused on bypassing the obvious danger of a naval blockade on imports from overseas. But the Soviets need the trade much less than the Germans. For them, the trade was meaningful only as part of the whole package.

The documents of the German foreign ministry on this issue are available for free online. Have a look.

Now, in OTL the German-Russian rapprochement seemed impossible. The years of propaganda, alone, made it extremely difficult. If you read Schnurre's telegrams, you'll notice how distrustful, suspicious and slow the Soviets look to him.
Now imagine that on top of that, the guns have stopped talking a week ago.

By trade I meant the agreement. Again as far as I'm aware you're just saying that it's harder, but considering the pod is different internal soviet situation. Look what Stalin accepted otl, why would he decide to fight the Germans in Poland? I just don't see it. Being willing to fight in Czechoslovakia to show up the allies isn't the same as bleeding for them in Poland. Why will bleeding strength in Czechoslovakia make Hitler less insanely willing to throw Europe under the bus and take any action to neutralise Stalin?

Also they have seven or so months from ceasefire to September 1939 of negotiations, far more than otl, to cool down and make gestures of trust

It doesn't really matter how little either side trust each other since they didn't otl. Geopolitics overcomes ideology,

At the same time Hitler isn't assassinated in this timeline which surely like otl is verging on asb. Less than 3% of timelines should have Hitler live even when pod is some guy blinking twice instead of once in 1938
 
What made the Allies jump into Scandinavia with both feet without a casus belli ITTL, when IOTL they didn't do it because Finland wouldn't provide them with a diplomatic figleaf by officially asking help during the Winter War? Why are the French so gung ho about breaking the neutrality of the Norwegians and Swedes, with all the diplomatic fallout they would know this action would create?

They did do it otl, the invasion fleet was en route to Norway when Hitler attacked.

In this timeline they have no winter war to distract them so Churchill gets to hammer it for months. The French were the ones advocating it otl so no changes. As to why they were? Terrified of Germans, anything to make another front

Also, why would Sweden go *Axis pretty much off the bat? The Swedish tradition of neutrality would dictate that while they will defend themselves against any foreign aggression, they also try to hold on to neutrality and avoid joining the other side of the war for as long as possible. If Finland could fight over three months against the USSR without asking anyone's help (and thus escalating the conflict), Sweden can also fight an Allied attack against its northern parts for months at least before stooping as low as to ask for, or even accept, German support. During that time, we might even see a truce being worked out between Sweden and the Allies, rather than an escalation happening. Sweden going *Axis would not be in the Allied interest, and thus if the war drags on, Paris and London might come to reconsider their attitude towards Sweden if Stockholm as much as alludes to them that it is about to turn to Berlin for help.

They do accept German support, soldiers. I am surprised that you think it's more likely that Hitler would let Sweden fight alone and just be OK with that.

Certainly Sweden isn't all that keen about bringing the war to Britain but Hitler, the very patient calm and sensible leader to allow them to fight alone for months against the British seems bonkers to me.

The allies invaded, and five days later German troops are landing in Scandinavia. Shortly after soviet troops are rushing into Finland. A Sweden that clings to neutrality here will find itself with no power in its own country.

To be blunt, in short it sort of seems like you are operating on a sort of video game logic with the events in the Nordic/Scandinavian area here.

I simply don't agree at all. If having other countries continue unchanged when there have been major changes in the political system. No winter war has major impacts and one of those is that the allies were simply insane when it came to neutral nations. They regularly violated them.

Also nations like Portugal, etc, suddenly joining the war when they IOTL didn't seems suspect - what exactly happened ITTL? Several European political leaders caught a belligerence virus of some sort?;)

So there's no change to Portugal here that would make anyone pressure them into the war? No changes to their own analysis? Instead regardless of the fact that unlike otl the Spanish Civil War still rages things will continue as normal. With Britain, France and the USA totally fine even though all their actions in the civil war were about keeping Germany and Italy nice and now the chicken has flown the coup yet they'll just keep on the same path?

It's one thing to disagree with the likeliness but what's the rationale for Portugal getting away with doing nothing here? All of the allied interests, again OPPOSITE to otl where they wanted Portugal to stay out because of Spain.

Anyway I'm surprised you didn't point out how video gamey the invasion of Iran is. As if any country would do that? Totally asb
 
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