World War 2 in a CP victory timeline?

If the Central Powers manage to pull off a decisive victory sometime in the first twelve months of World War 1 and impose the usual crap peace terms one the Entente, how long before the whole thing kicks off again and what weapons are used in the fight?
 

MrP

Banned
I always forget what the early war German aims were. Susano, get in here!

Naval: RN is miles ahead of the KM. The MN is either going to find funding slashed in favour of troops on land or if Germany limits the French Army, is going to turn into a place to hide surplus soldiers pretending to be sailors. First scenario is good, as it means she'll have to scrap her old ships at a rate of knots (NPI). Second scenario is less good, as the ships will probably be retained as a smokescreen for a while, at least.

More carriers. In a few years there will probably be an international naval treaty between Britain, America, Germany and Japan, but one with fewer restrictions than the Washington Treaty, as everyone has more money. France will get side-lined; Italy's and A-H's positions will depend on their war experience. Lessons from Jutland*: if there is one, then lessons will be learned, but if there isn't, yadayada.

Land: I can definitely see the armies moving toward mechanisation. That said, armoured cars will have proven their utility, whereas tanks probably haven't. So lots of lightly armoured and highly mobile HMGs much like OTL's inter-war armoured cars. Germany may be a bit more resistant to this, given a) her OTL dilatory approach to mech warfare, and b) the fact that she's just won with what she already has. Of course, the German officer corps will doubtless undertake a rigorous review of the war, as IOTL, but since ITTL they won it, stick-in-the-muds will still be able to form counter-arguments. Even IOTL Guderian had to write his book partly as an explanation and partly as an evangelical text, and that's when Germany had lost!

Aerial: Well, more carriers at sea. I expect the aerial formations have yet to gain the widespread acclaim of later years, so they will - at least temporarily - be tied to the apron-strings of the other two services. So no strategic bombing to wipe out a country ideas, because the generals and admirals want the defence budget spent on their reconnaissance and support aircraft.

As to when . . . dunno. Not for a while yet. Britain and Ireland need to get their act together, plus Westminster's prestige will have been damaged in the eyes of the Empire. France will want to tear down her army and rebuild it from the bottom up. Probably with a very defensively-minded outlook at first - as after the F-P War - and only getting more aggressive later on - as in the decade or so before WWI. Germany will be getting richer and more populous all this time, and I'd not be too surprised to see a brain-drain to her shores after the immediate memories of war have passed.
 
I am not sure how there would be a WW2 as we know it. What would trigger a CP v. Entente redux?
That's kind of hard to guess, as we have no real information on the peace terms. In fact, I think that the war aims for both sides were (relatively) reasonable in the first year or so IOTL. As time went on, we got the harsh ideas like Versailles, ideas that no one even tried to enforce thus making the Germans angry but not doing much to stop their attempt at revenge.

That said, if we're giving the usual harsh peace terms and rise of right-wing fanatics in the defeated powers, I'd say there are several options. If Ireland has been made independent and is CP-friendly(unlikely but possible) I would say Britain invades there. However, I'm not sure the Germans would be overly concerned with Ireland so a French attack/Polish Rebellion would probably be the most likely option. Or, have A-H collapse into anarachy Germany tries to move in to support the Hapsburgs and the Entente(possibly w/Italy) move in to "support the brave slavs in their quest for independence".

That work?
 
What if Germany wins late in the war, and inherits a Chaotic peace-- and *Nazis still rise to power? Can they be expected to win?
 
I am not sure how there would be a WW2 as we know it. What would trigger a CP v. Entente redux?
Why, Poland, of Course ...

Actually, Probably Something VERY Similar Going on in Western Europe, Instead!

Either France will Assert Claims over The Franco-Phonic Parts of The Low Countries, Unless Germany Incorporated them as Part of The Peace Treaty ...

In Which Case, France will go to War with Germany to Re-Claim them; While England is Busy Curb-Stomping Ireland, a la Turtledove!
 
What if Germany wins late in the war, and inherits a Chaotic peace-- and *Nazis still rise to power? Can they be expected to win?

Not impossible, but unlikely. A late victory is likely to result in Stodgy Prussian Pseudo-Fascists, which is shit, but does not involve cults of personality of the holocaust.
 
Why, Poland, of Course ...

Dude, easy on the capital letters. Also smilies, marks of exclamation. Anyway, Poland seems unlikely. The "Entente" have no more reason to take any interest in its domestic politics than in those of any other German puppet-state, and if they're going to couch their fight in terms of liberating opressed peoples, they'd start with the Alsace-Frenchies.

Actually, Probably Something VERY Similar Going on in Western Europe, Instead!

Er, what? Similar to what?

Either France will Assert Claims over The Franco-Phonic Parts of The Low Countries, Unless Germany Incorporated them as Part of The Peace Treaty ...

If they're not German or a German vassal-state, France has little reason to claim. So anyway, either that or what?

In Which Case, France will go to War with Germany to Re-Claim them; While England is Busy Curb-Stomping Ireland, a la Turtledove!

Oh, come on, Britain!!! could take out Ireland in about five second. That's hardly busy. Ireland is also not likely to become independent as a German satellite in any scenario leaving a recognisable United Kingdom.
 

MrP

Banned
Dude, easy on the capital letters. Also smilies, marks of exclamation.

Just so you know, he always posts like that. His excuse is pretty much "it's easier for people to make out my posts". So he's on several Ignore Lists, including mine. It's a godawful painful thing to read.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I think that a WWII would be quite unlikely in a CP victory world, or at least it would be quite different. Germany dominate the contignent in a way the allies never could. The only potential enemy to its dominans would be Russia, and in a CP victory world we will at least see a independent Poland, and a Balkan without Russian influence, and at best a independent Ukraine, Balticum and Finland. Which will limit Russian power for decades.
 
Just so you know, he always posts like that. His excuse is pretty much "it's easier for people to make out my posts". So he's on several Ignore Lists, including mine. It's a godawful painful thing to read.

It is easier to make them out. They're the only ones on the board with the ignore list message in their place.
 
I think that a WWII would be quite unlikely in a CP victory world, or at least it would be quite different. Germany dominate the contignent in a way the allies never could. The only potential enemy to its dominans would be Russia, and in a CP victory world we will at least see a independent Poland, and a Balkan without Russian influence, and at best a independent Ukraine, Balticum and Finland. Which will limit Russian power for decades.

On the other hand, I see a few arguments against it.

1) Britain will end up a bit, hrmm, darker than OTL, as it draws the lessons from a German victory.

2) Poland was hardly a key to Russia's great power status, nor was Finland, no? The Ukraine and the Caucasus, of course, play a considerably different role, but I can't help but wonder about Imperial overstretch. I think you could see Germany forced to withdraw messily from some of its puppet states. Moreover, even if Russia is *Communist, it will be tied more closely into the anti-German bloc that will certainly form.

3) Austria-Hungary is still Austria-Hungary, and as rickety and unstable. I don't know what the alternative would be; I doubt the Czechs, say, would prefer being a German satellite instead of being part of a German ally.

4) The US will be less isolationist than OTL, not having the experience of the Western Front. Instead it will be faced with a German Empire pursuing economic expansion abroad even as it ties the European economy into its zollverein.

I don't see America sending troops to Flanders anytime soon, but I can see a US aggressively bankrolling an anti-German coalition, naval tensions, well, everywhere, etc.

Not impossible, but unlikely. A late victory is likely to result in Stodgy Prussian Pseudo-Fascists, which is shit, but does not involve cults of personality of the holocaust.

On the other hand, Taisho Japan was certainly more democratic than Germany was in 1916 or 1917, and look how that turned out. When you factor into this some of the German plans to "settle" parts of Poland, it's easy to see something rotten inthe kaiserreich.

OTOH, you could also see a successful socialist/liberal revolution, which manages to stick, in this world. Hrm.
 
The OP did presuppose a victory in the first twelve months of the War- at which time the German leadership wasn't quite so extreme as it'd become later on, if I've understood things correctly, and would perhaps be more inclined to a, hm, maybe a bit less crap-for-the-Entente peace than Versailles was crap-for-Germany.
So, uh, Stodgy Prussians, but maybe not quite so Fascist, even pseudo, as they'd be later on?
 
Here is what I have come up with that would make a TL under these circumsrtances remotely possible.
  1. It won't be WW2 in anyway that we know it in OTL. It would have to be Entente v. CP, Cp v. Soviets, Entente v. Soviets, etc.
  2. To trigger a war between the CP and Entente would require:
    • A victory more comparable to a draw or cease fire (such as an intense war of attrition) between the two sides, leading to a cold war.
    • The cold war would need to lead to an arms race similar to the United States and the Soviet Union from 1946-1989.
  3. There would need to be a flash point such as:
    • The break up of A-H.
    • The spread of communism, a realistic Red Alert if you will.
    • A crisis such as a bombing or another assination.
 
Well, you could simply reverse the people and countries and you have an eerily similiar scenario.

In France (Germany), which had to sign the War Guilt Clause at the Treaty of the Hofburg, was slapped with most of the reparations and had all but her North African colonies stripped from her. There is much upheaval, and a shaky Fourth Republic emerges. Under the Hindenburg-analogue of Petain, violence in the streets is endemic. Over the latter half of the Twenties, the franc would be plagued by hyperinflation. The final blow to the Fourth Republic would be the Great Depression, and the population would be further radicalised. Petain selects Charles Maurras to be Prime Minister. In 1932, the Front for National Salvation (FSN) unites the Far Right.
 

Baskilisk

Banned
Just so you know, he always posts like that. His excuse is pretty much "it's easier for people to make out my posts". So he's on several Ignore Lists, including mine. It's a godawful painful thing to read.
Well, you could always just skim over his post, nobody's forcing you to read it. By putting him on ignore your just cutting out what could be an important part of the discussion.
 

MrP

Banned
Well, you could always just skim over his post, nobody's forcing you to read it. By putting him on ignore your just cutting out what could be an important part of the discussion.

Ignore = cut out what could be an important part of the discussion
Skim over the post without reading it = as Ignore but with slightly more scrolling of the mouse

You're going to have to clarify how option two is better.
 

Nietzsche

Banned
Well, the thing is, any war launched by France against Germany isn't going to get very far. This has nothing to do with popular US opinion against France, or the internet meme of "lawl france suxors teh big one". It's simple odds. Even after WW1, with all the loss of territories and industry, Germany was more powerful.

This is a Germany that won. France isn't going to be able to do much at round two, and I seriously doubt any rational French politician would advocate national suicide. Britain certainly won't jump in on their side, since they're probably, at the worst, losing nothing to Germany. Britain will be quite pleased post WW1, especially if it ends within a year or two.

What's the situation in the east?
 
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