Inspired by a similar thread I posted a year ago:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/economic-development-of-nationalist-china.390348/
This is going to be a very broad, high level scenario, so please indulge me in avoidng too much in the way of the specifics of how. Let us assume that the Nationalists secure mainland China. Without assuming that everything goes peachy keen for them, China remains connected to the trade networks of the West and gradually adopts an export-oriented economy, similar to their current economy. The main difference is the timing (ballpark guess: about two decades ahead of OTL’s schedule for when they really are the export behemoth) and - of more interest to me - the rate at which they become so dominant as an exporter.
What might world trade look like, and how might Western societies react, to this scenario? Lots of variables to consider:
- We’re not looking at a sudden explosion of Chinese production like in OTL’s 90s, where everything starts getting made in China overnight. Here, they follow a path similar to the other Asian exporters, rebuilding after WW2 and gradually clawing their way up the global supply chain.
- This is also further ahead of automation technology, so there’s not a near simultaneous one-two punch of cheap labor and cheap robotics to upend the economic order.
- China is - at minimum - rhetorically friendly to the West, so the economic matters don’t have to deal with as much saber rattling.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/economic-development-of-nationalist-china.390348/
This is going to be a very broad, high level scenario, so please indulge me in avoidng too much in the way of the specifics of how. Let us assume that the Nationalists secure mainland China. Without assuming that everything goes peachy keen for them, China remains connected to the trade networks of the West and gradually adopts an export-oriented economy, similar to their current economy. The main difference is the timing (ballpark guess: about two decades ahead of OTL’s schedule for when they really are the export behemoth) and - of more interest to me - the rate at which they become so dominant as an exporter.
What might world trade look like, and how might Western societies react, to this scenario? Lots of variables to consider:
- We’re not looking at a sudden explosion of Chinese production like in OTL’s 90s, where everything starts getting made in China overnight. Here, they follow a path similar to the other Asian exporters, rebuilding after WW2 and gradually clawing their way up the global supply chain.
- This is also further ahead of automation technology, so there’s not a near simultaneous one-two punch of cheap labor and cheap robotics to upend the economic order.
- China is - at minimum - rhetorically friendly to the West, so the economic matters don’t have to deal with as much saber rattling.