World in Flux Redux:An Alternate Cold War Timeline

Not sure what I should do with Nigeria. I was thinking about either balkanizing it, having become a democracy like otl or having it remain an Igbo dominated dictatorship. What do you guys think ?
 
Eastern Europe 1990s
Eastern Europe 1990s

The once quiet Eastern Bloc would explode into violence inspired by Soviet failings in it's initial invasion of Poland with the expectation of Romania under the rule of Nicolae Ceausescu and Bulgaria. The closed borders of Eastern Europe was now opened to western arms and supplies.The Soviet Union both economically and military would come under extreme strain of both the occupation of Eastern Europe and Western sanctions.By late 1991 and early 1992 the Soviet Union and it's communist collaborators would control the major cities while the countryside would be a mess of of rival insurgent groups ranging from Democratic socialist to Fascists.These groups would fight the each other just as much as they did with the communists if not more so.The fighting in the Eastern Bloc would end following the end of the communism in the Soviet Union in 1994.

The worsting economic conditions, the introduction of rationing in the Soviet Union, and the increasing body count from the fighting in Eastern Bloc would see large scale protests and riots in various cities through out the Soviet Union in early June 1994 encouraged by the [1]death of Viktor Grishin on 25 May 1994. Attempts to crush the protesters would see the military refuse to fire or even join them.Mid-June would see a military coup encouraged by the worsting internal conditions of the Soviet Union. The coup would see a number of KGB,military, and more moderate members of the communist party join. Facing little Resistance, the coup would see a military junta take control of the Soviet Union.The junta would be lead by Alexander Lebed,the popular commanding officer of 14th Soviet army. The new government would negotiate the withdraw of the Soviet troops from the Warsaw pact in exchange for end to Western Sanctions and access to western credit.The peace agreements ending the wars in the former Warsaw pact would see the communist parties automatically receive anywhere from 1/4 to a 1/3 of seats in the various national governments and for the new governments to be permanently neutral with the governments of Poland,Hungary,and Czechoslovakia being prevented from joining both the European Union and NATO. East Germany would be put under a transnational government until it recovered from the conflict, after-which it would join West Germany.

The new military government in the Soviet Union would oversee the end of communism in the country with the ruling communist party being renamed and transformed into the Union Party,A socially conservative and economically interventionist party.The nation would renamed into Union State.The country would see economic troubles as it started a slow transition to a capitalist economy aided by Western loans and with large arms sales to various nations. The nation would see it's economy reach 1989 levels by the year 2000.The country would cut off it's foreign aid and free or reduced weapons delivery to it's various former clients around the world, seeing many either fall or adapt. The exceptions to this would the nation of Afghanistan and Romania which the Union State sought to maintain friendly governments on it's border and various factions in the former Yugoslavia. The Union state would improve it's relations with China by settling it's many year long border dispute.

The violence in the other nations in the Warsaw Pact would discourage protests or any uprisings in Romania. The government under Nicolae Ceausescu would begin to start market reforms hoping to prevent any unrest.The country would see gradual economic reforms in part inspired by China begin in 1990. The reforms would be aided by generous Western and Soviet loans as the two sought to either keep Romania within the Soviet sphere or take it out. By 1995 the country would transition to a mixed-economy with the country reaching it's economy 1989 levels with high growth in the rest of the decade fueled by western European investments and a trade deals with Western Europe,the United States, and the Union State.

1.POD: dies two years later
 
Afghanistan 1990s
Afghanistan 1990s

The modern history of Afghanistan begins with a successfully coup of the Nation's king by his cousin Mohammed Daoud Khan with the assistance of various left-wing forces.The coup would lead Establishment of an Afghan republic in July 1973. Mohammed Daoud Khan would in turn be overthrow by his one-time communists allies in a coup on 28 April 1978.The Saur revolution would lead to People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) coming to power and the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan coming into existance. The new communist government would be split into two factions the Parcham and the more radical Khalq. The latter would hold power until the Soviet intervention to prop up the new communist government and would see the Parcham hold power.

The policies of the new communist government would see the countryside rise up in a largely Islamic rebellion aided by the United States and Pakistan.The Afghan civil war would see a flood of foreign fighters motivated by a desire to fight atheistic Soviet Union and the new Afghan government.The Soviet forces in the country would reach a peak of 100,000 in 1986 with that number declining to 5,000 in 1989 to finally a permanent force of 1,000 largely advisers or pilots by 1991.The end of communism in the Soviet Union would see the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan remove any references to communism and establish Islam as the state religion.In a bid to rob support for the Mujaheddin, the PDPA would halt it's program of land reforms as well as make Atheism and Homosexuality illegal, and introduce elements of sharia law into the country's legal system. The government would also began to pay off or offer government positions to the less ideological motivated members of the Mujaheddin.Despite the end of communism and founding of the Union State. Afghanistan would continue to receive millions of dollars in aid and large amounts of surplus equipment.The Union State feared the overthrow of the PDPA would lead to Afghanistan serving as a base for Islamic fundamentalism to spread into central Asia.

The fighting in Afghanistan during the 1990s would follow the same pattern as the 1980s with the government controlling the cities and the insurgencies controlling most of the countryside.The war would continue this pattern until 1999 when an agreement would reached between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The agreement brokered by the United States and Union State would see Afghanistan recognize the Durand Line as the it's border with Pakistan and limit any foreign troop presence to 10,000 mix in exchange Pakistan would drop it's support for the Mujaheddin. The agreement would see a drop in the fighting and see the return of some of the millions of Afghan refugees who had fled into Pakistan.The mujaheddin both Afghan and other nationalists inside Pakistan were given the offer of either leaving, disarming or fighting in disputed region of Kashmir in Pakistani-backed insurgency groups against India. Most of the former would simply head cross the border into Afghanistan or move into more remote parts of Pakistan. Most of the latter would head off to Kashmir or other war zones. Despite the agreement the ungoverned borderland of Afghanistan and Pakistan would remain a nest of insurgencies,drug smugglers, and jihadists.
 
Southern Africa 1990s
Southern Africa 1990s

The collapse of communism in east Europe would enable South Africa and the other white minority ruled states to dominate Southern Africa and build a cordon sanitaire of friendly states. The fall of the Soviet Union would see the it's various proxies in Southern Africa cut off from financial and military support. The most crucial of this support would be the Soviet backed Cuban intervention in Angola to support MPLA in it's fight against UNITA. Cut off from the resources to continue it's intervention, Cuban forces would withdraw from the country by early Octbor 1995 leaving the MPLA government to face UNITA and South African forces alone.South African forces and UNITA would launch a major offensive in early November aided by Congolese forces in the North after months of preparation. Attempts by MPLA to negotiate a settlement in the months before would be rejected as UNITA and allies feel victory would be close.The offensive would see the Angolan capital of Luanda fall in mid January 1996 with UNITA leader and founder Jonas Savimbi becoming the country's new president,South African forces in the country would withdraw shortly afterwards. Despite the promises of elections and democracy, the new UNITA government much like the MPLA one before it would be a one-party dictatorship.On the other side of the continent and former Portuguese colony.The republic of Zambezi would see the end of the FRELIMO insurgency. FRELIMO cut off from assistance from now defunct Eastern bloc, would soon be forced to join RENAMO as a junior member of the ruling government.

The 1990s would be a mixed bag for South Africa and Rhodesia as they were now surrounded by friendly nations with much of the world dropping it's opposition to the country with the end of the cold war along with the decline of ideas such as anti-imperialism and anti-colonialism. The expectations to this would be Western Europe,United States,and Canada. These countries becoming increasingly hostile to South Africa racial policies without the specter of communism to detour them.The increasing western sanctions would be offset with increasing trade with the rest of the World with China becoming the country's leading investor. The country along with Rhodesia and Mozambique would see large scale immigration from Eastern Europe. The Union State would soon become a shield against international sanctions and pressure along with a source of military arms for the minority ruled states due to the region's increasing East Slavic population. The era would see a continuation of Apartheid and political dominance by the Nationalist party with a lack of any major reforms.The other two white minority states Rhodesia and Mozambique would the see the continuation of their respective policies from the 1980s with both the Rhodesian front and Estado Novo maintaining power in their nations.Rhodesia would see the tightening of the western economic sanctions while Mozambique would begin to receive criticism. Mozambique with the end of the cold war would receive international recognition from the former eastern bloc and join the UN.

The era would mark the start of a South African sphere of influence. Leveraging it's economic and military might relative to it's neighbors in combination with deceasing global interest in the region with the end of the cold war. The nation would dominate Southern Africa with the countries under it's sway frequently voting in favor or remaining neutral in the UN or other international institutions along with being a conduit for South Africa and Rhodesia to get around western economic sanctions.The former enemy of Zambia would come under South African sway with the removal of Kenneth Kaunda, The country would shift to a neutral position on the minority ruled states due to a mix of economic dependence and the hope for aid and foreign investments.Thanks to it's alliance with UNITA, South African businesses would gain access to Angola's large oil and diamond reserves and begin to heavily invest in the country.The alliance between UNITA and South Africa would lay the ground work for South African assistance and backing of Mobutu in the Congo war.The Bantustans would gain some international recognition from countries tied or allied with South Africa such as Botswana,Lestio,Angola,Mozambique, and Swaziland.
 
Congo 1990s
Congo 1990s

1997 would mark the start of the Congo war pitting Mobutu Sese Seko and his allies against Laurent-Désiré Kabila along with a coalition of Mobutu's eastern neighbors.The roots of the conflict go back to the Mobutu's mismanagement of the Congo since coming to power in bloodless coup in 1965.The country renamed Zaire in 1971 saw a massive decline of it's GDP since independence in 1960 along with extreme levels of corruption and ethnic tensions encouraged by Mobutu as a way of keeping power. The spark for the conflict nicknamed Africa's world war would be the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide as massive numbers of Hutu fleeing from the new Tutsi government settled in the eastern Congo. Many of the Hutus were leaders and perpetrators of the genocide against the Tutsi as old allies of Mobutu were given support in launching attacks against the new Rwandan government.

The attacks from Hutu militia called Interahamwe encouraged Rwanda along with it's long-time ally Uganda and the new Tutsi government in Burundi to launch an offensive into Eastern Zaire in support of anti-Mobutu rebels in late August 1996. The various rebel forces would soon come together under the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire (AFDL) under the control of Laurent-Désiré Kabila,a long-time enemy of Mobutu. The alliance would secure Zaire's eastern borderlands by late January 1997. Zairian forces weakened by lack of pay,training, and corruption would easily be defeat. A large push saw the eastern half of Zaire fall by late March.The latest advance would see Mobutu's long time allies France and UNITA come to his aid in mid-February. Zaire as the largest French speaking state in Africa had developed close political and economic ties to France while UNITA had been supported due it's opposition to the former MPLA government of Angola.

UNITA would send over 30,000 troops supported by French logistical support . The threat of AFDL,international isolation from his support for the Interahamwe, and UNITA long standing alliance would encouraged Mobutu to cozy up South Africa leading to South African military sales and small amount of advisers aiding both UNITA and Zairian forces in the country. The arrival of UNITA forces would see the AFDL and allies halted. AFDL's allies soon increased their involvement in the war as a reaction to UNITA intervention in turn leading to increasing UNITA presence in Zaire. The conflict soon turned into a back and forth over central Zaire. A ceasefire would reached in late 2000 with an official end to the war in 2003 leading to coalition government between the deceased Mobutu Sese Seko's son Nzanga Mobutu Ngbangawe and Laurent-Désiré Kabila. The coalition government would fall apart with the assassination of Kabila in 2005 leading to his son Joseph Kabila fleeing to Rwanda to lead a new AFDL.

Despite an official end to war being reached in 2003. The fighting continued as it would shift from one of politics to one over the extreme mineral wealth of the Eastern Zaire. The participants in the conflict would see either massive profit or a large percentage of the cost recouped in exploitation of the region's natural resources. Backed by various regional governments and international businesses the Eastern Congo would torn apart by rival militias for many years.
 
WIP Map I had planned for year 2000 of this tl

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