World in Flux:An Alternate Cold War Timeline

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First attempt at a timeline.

China and the far east 1940s and 1950s

[1]With defeat of Japan in the Pacific war and the crushing of the communist party in the long march. The two greatest threats to the Nationalist rule in China were over. Attempts at land reform were largely unsuccessful with the exception of Taiwan which saw the land of former Japanese landlords redistributed. An anti-corruption campaign launched after the end of Second Sino-Japanese war would only be moderately successful; However, the country would see modest levels of growth through the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s fueled by American investments. The era would also see successful anti-opium and literacy campaigns. With China proper under control after the Soviet withdraw from Manchuria in 1946, Chiang Kai-shek would turn his attention to Tibet. Ultimately annexing the country into China in 1947. The Dalai Lama would remain a ceremonial leader. Mongolia would be recognized in 1945 with Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance and the border with Burma would be settled in 1948.

Fearful of encirclement by communists with the Soviet Union and Co on his northern and western borders. Chiang Kai-shek would support the French against the largely Communist Vietnamese insurgency. Starved of supplies and denied bases from which to operate. The Viet Minh would be crushed by the French.The nations of Indochina would only gain their full independence in 1960.Among other things Chiang Kai-shek would forge alliances with the newly created Pakistan and South Korea with the goal of containing Soviet influence. Much like Germany,[2]Korea would be divided into communist and capitalist halves in a cold peace.

1. POD: Communists are destroyed during the long march

2.POD:With a Nationalist China Kim il sung doesn't dare to attack the South.

 

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Any Criticism

 

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Middle East 1960s

The formation of Ba’athist lead United Arab Federation would divided the Pan-Arab movement into Nasserist and Ba’athist factions. The union of Syria and Iraq formed in 1964 following the defeat of Syrian Nasserist coup in July of 1963 and the deaths of Iraqi Nasserists such as [1] Abdul Salam Arif during the rule of Abd al-Karim Qasim. A one-party state lead by the Ba’ath party with Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr as Prime minster and Amin al-Hafiz as president. The new state would take a middle ground to the cold war playing the Soviet Union and the United States off each other until the 6-day war would see the new state firmly in the Soviet camp. The secession of Syria and formation of the United Arab Federation as a rival would heavily harm Nasser’s prestige.

The United Arab Republic would be bogged down in Yemen until its and the UAF war with Israel would promote a withdraw from North Yemen. The UAR would see new life breathed into with the [2]successful 1968 Sudanese coup. Attempts at other Arab Nationalist coups in Libya and Saudi Arabia would fail. Sudan would join the United Arab Republic in 1969 with Gaafar Nimeiry becoming Vice President of the Republic. The South of the country would gain autonomy under the Addis Ababa Agreement in 1972.

1.POD: Abdul Salam Arif is killed instead of imprisoned so no November 1963 Iraqi coup

2.POD: Gaafar Nimeir coup happens a year earlier allowing Nasser time to annex Sudan

Map of Middle East following the 6 day war

 

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Very good looking forward to more

 

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Nigeria 1960s

[1]With the failure of the 1966 counter-coup, the coup-plotters would flee north and declare the independence of Northern Nigeria under the republic of Arewa. Yakubu Gowon would be sacked in favor of Murtala Mohammed. The declaration of the new state would be followed by the ethnic cleansing of Igbos. The republic’s capital would be located in the city of Kaduna. The new nation would see heavy support during the Nigerian civil war from the United Arab Republic due its Muslim majority and France which hoped to expand its sphere of influence in Africa. Holding the bulk of Nigeria’s military assets and 60% percent of the nation’s soldiers. The new state would seem to hold the advantage, however, its only means of resupply would be through the various bordering former French colonies while the federal government would control the sea lanes.

Arewa would make an attempted push to the Lagos in July of 1966. Craving out a puppet Yorubaland out of the areas taken. The puppet state would primarily be led by Muslim Yorubas. The push to Lagos would petering out near Oshogbo due to government resistance and increasing lack of supplies. The decision was made to pull back to its claimed borders and entrench themselves, leaving the Yoruba to fend for themselves in November. The Federal government would be stuck dealing with Yorubaland and trying to build an army for six months. In the meantime, the republic of Arewa would gain recognition along with supplies and money from Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Republic, Algeria, and Pakistan. Supplies would increasingly pass down the Niger river from Benin and Niger. The superpowers would not get involved as the Soviet Union initially wished to support the federal government but to due its allies support for the Arewa decided to not get involved leading to American non-involvement as well. Nigeria's former colonial master Britain would do nothing more then sell arms financed by BP oil. An attempt by Arewa to push to the Benue river would be repulsed in mid-1967. The federal government would begin a brutal 4 and half yearlong campaign to retake the north, ending in 1972. The north would remain a hotbed of insurgency for many decades following the war as the country’s wealth and power would remain concentrated in the hands of the south.

1. POD: The 1966 Nigerian counter-coup fails as a result the north tries to break off.

Map of Arewa

 

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Southeast and South Asia 1960s

The different states of Indochina would gain their independence as pro-western monarchies in 1960.The various nations of southeast Asia would slowly come under Chinese influence in the coming decades. The expectation to this would be Myanmar which would come under a pro-Soviet government following a Coup in 1962. Malaysia would gain its independence in 1963 following negotiations between Chiang Kai-shek, Britain and the Malay elite. Chiang Kai-shek would be interested in the country due its large Chinese population. In an agreement over the Chinese population would see the straits settlement recreated as the republic of Singapore and expanded to include the state of Negeri Sembilan and half of the state of Perak. The new nation would be led by Lee Kuan Yew. The creation of the new state would see many Malays and Chinese stream across the border to either Malaysia or Singapore.


China would see both the Paracel and Spratly islands fall under its uncontested control as competing claims were dropped in the two decades following the Second World War. Vietnam would renounce its claims due to Chinese assistance against the Viet Minh. Malaysia and Brunei would see their claims drop under British pressure as part of an agreement over Malaysian independence. The Philippines would be pressured to relinquish its claims due to an American desire not to angry Chiang Kai-shek. China would attack India over the disputed Arunachal Pradesh in conjunction with a Pakistan attack on Kashmir in 1965. China was able to take all of Arunachal Pradesh while Pakistan would only be able to take the Kashmir valley. Both nations would be able to hold their respective gains to the modern day. Pakistan would see East Pakistan become Bangladesh following the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. It would be able retain its control over parts of Kashmir held prewar through the Simla agreement.

Map of Malaysia

 

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Angola and Mozambique 1970s

The Carnation Revolution would mark the end of Portugal’s colonial wars and see the various armed independence movements fight each for control.[1]Mozambique would see fighting between RENAMO and FRELIMO both founded in the 1960s.[2] In South Mozambique a group of white settlers called Movement for a Free Mozambique would seize control of the area around the capital as a third faction claiming Mozambique but de facto only holding the area south of the Limpopo river with south African support. Attempts at an accord between the three factions would fail in January of 1975 as a result of FRELIMO opposition; however, the Movement for a Free Mozambique and RENAMO would form a temporary alliance aimed at FRELIMO. 3,000 South African forces would intervene on the side of the MFM while Rhodesia forces would push into the country on the side of RENAMO in February. South African and Rhodesian forces would halt at the Zambezi river in June. Under South African and Rhodesian pressure an agreement between RENAMO and MFM to divide Mozambique between the two would be reached, attempts to give the land north of the Zambezi to FRELIMO were refused as the organization continued to claim all of Mozambique. The agreement would see the border set north of Beira with MFM taking the area south as Mozambique while the area north would become the republic of Zambezi. An attempt by the Soviet Union to introduce sanctions and condemn the invasion would be vetoed by China which saw South Africa and Rhodesia as bulwarks against communism. Both Mozambique and the republic of Zambezi would gain recognition from Portugal in November of 1975. Mozambique would receive 450,000 white Angolans . Victory in Mozambique conflict would provide a major morale boost to both South Africa and Rhodesia, enabling both states to survive into the 21th century.


Angola would see similar conflict to Mozambique between UNITA and the MPLA following Portugal’s withdraw. Requests by UNITA for South Africa intervention were refused as the country was fearfully of international condemnation and strained by the conflict in Mozambique. Zaire would launch its own failed intervention on the side of FNLA to capture Luanda which would be halted by MPLA and Cuban troops while an attempt by UNITA from the South would be crushed. South Africa would launch its own limited intervention with 500 troops in November of 1975 to prop up UNITA in South Angola. South Africa would withdraw its forces from the country in January of 1976.

1. POD: RENAMO is founded earlier

2. POD: This coup was unsuccessful in OTL but with RENAMO and FRELIMO busy fighting each. Portugal doesn't intervene.

Pink: MPLA held areas
Blue:Republic of Zambezi(RENAMO)
Green: Mozambique(Movement for a Free Mozambique )

 

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East Africa 1970s

Much like how the different Arab nationalist coups both successful and not would promote purges and restructuring of military [1]so would the 1960 coup attempt in Ethiopia. The Emperor would purge the armed forces of modernizers replacing them with loyalists and turning the imperial guard into a parallel military. Mutinies in 1974 would crushed; however, the country would see increasing uprisings and revolts egged on by famine and the poor economy. Taking advantage of the situation would be neighboring Somalia which would invade both Ethiopia and Kenya in July of 1977.


Somalia would invade the Ogaden region with 25,000 troops while attacking Kenya with 10,000 troops. Somali army would soon expend with heavy Soviet aid to 60,000 troops in Ethiopia backed up by 2500 Cuban troops and 20,000 troops in Kenya. The advance into Ethiopia would be halted at the battle of Harar. Somali forces in Kenya would capture and hold the North Eastern Province against repeated Kenyan counterattacks. The United States would begin a heavy resupply of Ethiopian and Kenyan forces along with sending American and Israeli advisers. A planned counter offensive in March of 1978 would be derailed as the previously [2] western backed Idi Amin would attack Kenya in the rear in January, capturing large part of the country on the basis of it being historical Ugandan land. Kenya would soon bow out of the war followed by Ethiopia in February, leaving Somalia with 90% of the Ogaden and all of the North Eastern province ,while Uganda would gain large part of western Kenya.


Idi Amin attempts following the war to maintain British and Israeli support were rejected in favor of Kenya and Ethiopia. The rejection would see Uganda turn to the Soviet bloc and rapprochement with the United Arab Republic, ultimately forming a permanent alliance with Somalia in opposition to Kenya and Ethiopia. Both Kenya and Ethiopia would see increase in civil unrest but would hang on thanks to American support. The conflict would stark an arms race fueled by the superpowers dumping hundreds of millions of dollars in the area as both sides prepared for the inevitable rematch.

1.POD:Selassie takes a harder line against the threat of another coup and coup-proofs the military

2.POD: No Gaddafi's Libya so Idi Amin remains western allied

Map of East Africa after the Ogaden war

 

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Mideast 1970s

Following defeat in the 6-day war both the United Arab Republic and the United Arab Federation would see heavy military reforms and cooperation against Israel. Nasser would die in 1970 leaving Gaafar Nimeiry as president of the UAR while the UAF would retain its leadership. Both countries would attack Israel in a joint surprise on October 6. UAR forces would successful cross the Suez Canal while UAF forces would successfully capture most of the Golan Heights. UAF would be pushed from the Golan Heights in 5 days while the UAR would hold against Israeli counterattack. The arrival of Iraqi reinforcements would see Israeli hold at the 1967 border while UAR would hold and reinforce its positions on the east bank of Suez Canal. The war would drag on as a stalemate for two more weeks until a ceasefire was reached.

The end of the conflict would see the UAR regain the Sinai and Gaza strip as UN buffer zones as Israel would withdraw under American pressure. UAR and Israel would establish backdoor diplomatic relations. The UAR following the war would take a more neutral approach to the Cold War supported by the United States. The rest of 1970s and 1980s would see privatization of aspects of the Economy and encouraging of foreign investment by Gaafar Nimeiry.


The United Arab Federation would see itself drawn closer to the Soviet Union as the country sought to reform its military along Soviet lines and standards in preparation for another war with Israel. The military would be enlarged to 700,000 members and see large arm sales fueled by the increase in oil prices from the OPEC embargo. The UAF launch an intervention into Lebanon with the start of its civil war in 1978. The UAF would force the Damascus Agreement in 1980 which saw power spilt 50-50 between the Christians and Muslims. The agreement would leave Lebanon within the UAF’s sphere of influence and a buffer state against Israel as the UAF turned east to face revolutionary Iran.