Wladyslaw III survives Varna: chances for a lasting union with Hungary?

As the title says, WI King Wladyslaw III of Poland and Hungary survives the battle of Varna, what you be the long term consequences for these kingdoms? For the sake of convenience, suppose that the "Crusaders" either don't suffer such a catastrophic loss, or even a victory, but if this POD is not enough, just pick another.

What are the chances of this dynastic union evolving into a long lasting (multiple generation) realm, like the Kalmar Union (or, better, the Denmark-Norway one)?

Wladyslaw III was very young when he died, so we can imagine that he might have sons. As long as the Ottoman threat looms over in the Balkans, I suppose that the Hungarian nobility will support a continued union with their stronger neighbor Poland - they were the ones that invited Wladyslaw to Hungary, in first place -, even more if the successive Polish monarchs continue to use the "championship" against the Turks as an ideological tool to legitimize their rule.

Now, in the long run, how would this arrangement be done? Would the "Rzeczpospolita" model rise in the same conditions, and could it be adapted to include the Hungarians (Slovakians, Vlachs, Croatians, etc), or would it likely remain as a post-feudal Early Modern monarchy? Any thoughts?
 
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As the title says, WI King Wladyslaw III of Poland and Hungary, and Grand Duke of Lithuania, survives the battle of Varna, what you be the long term consequences for these kingdoms? For the sake of convenience, suppose that the "Crusaders" either don't suffer such a catastrophic loss, or even a victory, but if this POD is not enough, just pick another.

What are the chances of this dynastic union evolving into a long lasting (multiple generation) realm, like the Kalmar Union (or, better, the Denmark-Norway one)?

Wladyslaw III was very young when he died, so we can imagine that he might have sons. As long as the Ottoman threat looms over in the Balkans, I suppose that the Hungarian nobility will support a continued union with their stronger neighbor Poland - they were the ones that invited Wladyslaw to Hungary, in first place -, even more if the successive Polish monarchs continue to use the "championship" against the Turks as an ideological tool to legitimize their rule.

Now, in the long run, how would this arrangement be done? Would the "Rzeczpospolita" model rise in the same conditions, and could it be adapted to include the Hungarians (Slovakians, Vlachs, Croatians, etc), or would it likely remain as a post-feudal Early Modern monarchy? Any thoughts?

Not versed well enough to propose proper consequences to this POD, but I'll admit that I do like one giant eastern european bulwark between the russians, ottomans and the HRE.

Mantaining order over so many different peoples accross such a large territorry might prove to be a challenge though. There must be a way to keep the local nobilities pleased, as I doubt the ever present threat from the ottomans and maybe, in the future, from the russians is enough to mantain them in order. Traditional feudal monarchy is always an option, though a fairly poor one in this case.

One thing is certain though: hungarians and poles are bound to love each other even more than they already do today in this ATL.
 
Using Google Search I actually found a TL based on this premise (something like "Wladyslaw goes home"), but it was discontinued after some chapters, and is inactive for years. I have two active TL's going on, but I confess that I'd like to give a try in the future. I'm a sucker for Poland's golden age.
 
It depends mostly from the result of the Crusader proper.

If the result is the same (army destroyed, but Wladyslaw doesn't charge on the Janissaries), the situation is going to be messy, the Polish never liked the adventure to begin with (the Teutons were a much more immediate treat than the Ottomans) and his hold in Hungary wasn't entirely firm (the pretender Ladislaus of Austria is still there, opposition to Wladyslaw can re-ignite after such failure), so good luck for him.

If it fails anyway but the Crusaders escape before shit goes south, same as above, but he has a firmer ground.

If it succeeds... I have no idea how the Crusade of Varna can succeed (the whole thing was based on false premises), but with a big victory he has a better hand against the magnates in Hungary and the Polish nobility if they try to do something funny.
 

ATP45

Banned
Thanks for the input, that's an important detail I got messed up, because, when I checked it up in Wiki before posting the thread. I'll change the OP.
In OTL,there would be Polish-Lithuania state after Varna.But in your story,you get Polish-Hungary State for Władysław and Lithuania for his brother.
 
If Vladislaus survives the crusade, that means he wasn't that foolish to charge at the jannisaries during the battle. Without that catastrophe, the battle (and war) was basically already won by Hunyadi. This would hugely increas the prestige of Vladislaus in both Hungary and Europe, so if he manages to produce a heir to succede him, the chance of retained personal union between Hungary and Poland is pretty high. However if Vladislaus has more sons, then he might split Hungary and Poland between them, reducing the relation between these countries to only dynastic union. If one branch would eventually die out, then the two kingdom would most probably come under personal union again though.

If you are worrying about Ladislaus Posthumous von Habsburg and his claim to Hungary, you shouldn't, because with the earned prestige from the succesful crusade and with John Hunyadi backing Vladislaus, Ladislaus would be in no position to pose real threat, not even with the support of Count Ulrich von Celje or Friedrich III. Especially if he dies the same as he died in OTL in 1457.

If everything goes well, by the time we could see a humongous Jagiellonian Empire emerge which would certainly include Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, and if the matters in Bohemia go similar as in OTL (except for Matthias), then Bohemia as well. In OTL, this "empire" was "created" as well, but much later, and it's circumstances were much worse, than what this TL proposes, for example the internal situation would be much more stable and all Serbia, Bulgaria, Wallachia and Moldavia, Masovia and the Teutonic Order would be the vassal of this entity.
 
Idoubt the union would last, Poles weren't interested in union in which they would be junior partners and had to suffer kings who would be absent for most time and spend their taxes on fighting Turks while he shpuld be spending them on fighting Teutonic Knights. Dynastic union has bigger chances of occuring, imo.
Vladislav could marry one of Albrech II daughters, preferably Elizabeth who otl gave his brother thirteen children. She is seven or eight atm, but Jagiellons usually married late, so it can wait a couple years. Casimir could marry some Lithuanian or Ruthenian princess instead
 
Idoubt the union would last, Poles weren't interested in union in which they would be junior partners and had to suffer kings who would be absent for most time and spend their taxes on fighting Turks while he shpuld be spending them on fighting Teutonic Knights. Dynastic union has bigger chances of occuring, imo.
Vladislav could marry one of Albrech II daughters, preferably Elizabeth who otl gave his brother thirteen children. She is seven or eight atm, but Jagiellons usually married late, so it can wait a couple years. Casimir could marry some Lithuanian or Ruthenian princess instead

Fighting Turks would I imagine would go well with the szlachta, but the absentee king would definitely be an issue (and the main reason why people OTL kicked out Valois)
 
I think a better POD would be Elizabeth of Luxembourg marrying Wladyslaw of Varna..despite their 15 years difference.
 
Chances of lasting union of Poland and Hungary are low. No common interests-for Poland there is nothing to gain from Władysław's Balkan adventures, Poles are interested in regaining Baltic Coast. So Casimir is still likely to get Polish crown, maybe even during his brother's lifetime.
 
It depends mostly from the result of the Crusader proper.

If the result is the same (army destroyed, but Wladyslaw doesn't charge on the Janissaries), the situation is going to be messy, the Polish never liked the adventure to begin with (the Teutons were a much more immediate treat than the Ottomans) and his hold in Hungary wasn't entirely firm (the pretender Ladislaus of Austria is still there, opposition to Wladyslaw can re-ignite after such failure), so good luck for him.

If it fails anyway but the Crusaders escape before shit goes south, same as above, but he has a firmer ground.

If it succeeds... I have no idea how the Crusade of Varna can succeed (the whole thing was based on false premises), but with a big victory he has a better hand against the magnates in Hungary and the Polish nobility if they try to do something funny.

Can you expand on this statement?
 
Very easy POD: Make Murad II die before reinforcing his son. His exit of retirement was the "tipping point", so to say, that tipped the crusader's fortunes in my view. Just my opinion though.
 
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