Deleted member 1487
Huh? They're a petro-state that had/has a smaller economy than ItalyEven OTL Russia reached high income status before sanction following the Ukraine escapade.
Huh? They're a petro-state that had/has a smaller economy than ItalyEven OTL Russia reached high income status before sanction following the Ukraine escapade.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economyHuh? They're a petro-state that had/has a smaller economy than Italy
IMO Russia surpaces Germany (and all other nations except the US and maye China) one generation after successfully implerment a functional market economy.
And I would write the same in the Future history thread.
Yes, same with 1941 even and a big part of the fall in GDP under communism was the drop off in food production.
In terms of industry? Yes. They had imported a lot of US technology pre-war (and German too) plus got a LOT via LL, especially machine tools, which were very labor saving. A huge chunk of Soviet GDP in 1941 was agriculture and raw material production, so industry, despite their mass production, was well behind. There was a reason Stalin was keen on the Commercial Agreement in 1940:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Commercial_Agreement_(1940)
They wanted the industrial equipment they couldn't source internally and weren't being sold by the Brits and US at the time. They did the same thing as part of the Reichswehr-Soviet military cooperation; IG Farben built the Soviet chemical weapons industry from near scratch.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany–Soviet_Union_relations_before_1941#The_.22Third_Period.22
Stalin actually crippled Soviet exports during the 1920s-30s with his efforts at collectivizing the farming peasants.
That's your problem right there. Nicky did not want any reforms, he was an old school autocrat that would rather die than have to deal with a Duma.
Yup. German industry was substantially more advanced AND they were actually outsourcing a lot of factories to Russia, which the Russians nationalized in WW1. A big part of the reason the Germans punched above their weight in WW1 and 2 was their heavy industry based economy, but also part of the reason they didn't have a large automotive industry to draw on to make AFVs in WW1 (consumer goods like that were more British and French style industrial economies).
No. I just think things would have been more balanced, perhaps with the Russians keeping up with perhaps half of US GDP rather than a tiny fraction.
Relative to other nations yes, it was the largest economy in the world, but was still a debtor. It would have remained the largest economy in the world, but wouldn't have become anywhere near as domineering as it is today if not for the world wars. In fact without them the US economy grows much more slowly relative to the rest of the world and Europe's combined GDP would be at least 50% higher if not even double.
Once again there are quite a few posters looking at Russia in a vacuum. If the Russian economic upturn (IMO unsustainable, as others have said)
would elevate their GDP and per capita incomes without WWI, why would it not also increase Germany's? If the Russians would improve without the negative effects of global war, surely the Germans would continue to improve as well.
Russia's biggest problem is the two most likely forms of governance open to them - Tsarist absolutism or Bolshevik Soviets - were both horrendously inefficient in regards to modern, industrial economies. The Tsarist system was rife with corruption and mismanagement, from high-level failures to secure proper supply contracts and prices, to low-level managers and officers simply selling supplies out the back door for personal gain. Whereas the Soviet "economic miracles" - sunglasses being produced by painting normal lenses black, dangerously low quality production methods to meet overambitious production quotas and of course the Ukrainian famine - produced in large parts a paper tiger.
For me, without some form of drastic POD that produces "normal" civilian dominated democratic governance in Russia for a good ten to fifteen year period (to eliminate graft and systematic corruption) Russian would not overtake Germany for at least fifty years. That is also predicated on a fifty year period of general peace as war would throw those figures off considerably.
Hang on--why exactly would it have been unsustainable? Indeed, I just want to clarify this part.
Yes, Germany's economy would also certainly grow without World War I; however, Russia had more room to grow than Germany had.
What about in a PoD where normal civil-dominated democratic governance does come to Russia, though? For instance, think of Russian Tsar Nicholas II getting overthrown in a revolution sometime in the 1920s.
Because it's relatively easy to make the initial improvements Russia did - much of it based on imported machinery and tooling - it's the 'next stage' that's harder to achieve.
Room it might have, but that's mainly because it had been so poor under the Tsarist system to date. Germany had a lead and under those circumstances wouldn't have a reason to lose it.
Then until "sometime in the 1920s" Russia would have shitty Tsarist corruption riddled governance holding them back whilst Germany surges ahead.
Also, militarily, Germany wasn't afraid of being overtaken by Russia, they were concerned the Russians would be able to hold their own and force a two-front war.
Remember, a lot of the statements attributed to German Generals about the Russian menace were made with an eye on securing increased funding for themselves. Much the same as the Americans talked up the Soviet "missile gap" in the 50s/60s.
By "next stage," do you mean building heavy industry?
Agreed; however, how long would it have taken for Russia to catch up to Germany after the 1920s?
Well, yeah, they were worried about the Schlieffen Plan becoming obsolete by the completion of Russia's Great Military Program (planned for 1917).
That's probably true; however, it wasn't only German generals who were panicking about Russia--for instance, take a look at what Bethmann-Hollweg declared about Russia:
Also, if German generals were merely interested in securing more funding for the German military, then they wouldn't have been so active in pushing for war in July 1914.
There were many competent reformers in the Tsar's service.
What you need to do to fix Russia is get Nicholas out of the way and don't let the Bolsheviks or a permanently locked Duma replace him.
My personal preference is Decembrists Mk. II, wherein a large cadre of liberal military officers seize St. Petersburg and the Tsar and force a constitution upon him.
This constitution places the military into the hands of the Duma/the Duma in the hands of the military, cutting off the Tsar's real source of power.
Then they graciously hand off the government into civilian hands after the election. A Turkish-style relationship between the military and the government ensues ... with the military on the side of parliamentarians. And as the support for autocracy naturally wanes over time, the military gets less and less involved in civilian government.
For me, without some form of drastic POD that produces "normal" civilian dominated democratic governance in Russia for a good ten to fifteen year period (to eliminate graft and systematic corruption) Russian would not overtake Germany for at least fifty years. That is also predicated on a fifty year period of general peace as war would throw those figures off considerably.
Also, if German generals were merely interested in securing more funding for the German military, then they wouldn't have been so active in pushing for war in July 1914.
Sounds good enough, with 400 million people in its border Russia, even if half as per capita productive as Germany chances are good that Russia would have as many people who are about as productive as the average German than the whole German population. Average, remember, half have more than the average, half have less. That's a pool of 100, 150 million people as productive and educated as any other average Western European, plenty people to recruit world class scientists and engineers from to raise the power of the Russian military and economy.And Russia probably wouldn't overtake the Germans in per-capita productivity even by today. (Overtaking that way is very hard to do and would probably take the Russians more than a single century.)
That would Austria-Hungary by 1910.As I have pointed out before, Russia was probably the most rapidly industrialising country in the world c.1890-1914