Without the Huns moving westward, how large could a Gothic state conceivably get?

Well I’m sure the Goths did absorb other groups when they moved from Poland to the Ukraine and Romania
I think it is possible, but I see little hard evidence. Which processes were at work here? If we know that, we can judge the questions of Antes/Slavs as well.
 
Just a query in my own thread but over time is it possible for a Gothic homeland in the Ukraine to expand to include all of European Russia? The greatest challenge would be absorbing and assimilating the various Slavic groups.
 
The greatest challenge would be absorbing and assimilating the various Slavic groups.

I'm pretty sure the main challenge would be fighting and defeating all the Steppe Nomads coming at them in the following centuries.

No Huns does not equal No Alans, no Avars, and others, many others.

Also, if the Huns move to China, they might open up a huge void to the Oghur-speaking peoples, for example, the Akatziri, Saragurs, Sabirs, Kutigrurs, Utigurs, etc.
There's also the Gokturks, Khazars, Avars, Pechengs, Cumans...

The Goths won't have an easy time.
 
Pretty much as the tin says, assuming the Huns invade and conquer China and thus don’t move westward, how large could the Gothic state located in OTLs Romania and the Ukraine conceivably get?
It's unlikely that we would be talking of one Gothic state, or even two : Gutthiuda was, for exemple, an ensemble of Gothic and related peoples chiefdoms held together by a sense of political coalition and percieved kinship.
I'll prefer not mention the legendary dominion of Greuthingi and Ermanaric over the Pontic Steppe, just to say it's as credible as a 3$ bill : take it at face value at your own risk.

Gothic peoples (which would probably be seen as a larger ensemble between Pannonian Plain and Pontic Plain) would be dependent on their connection to Romania to prosper and form, from simple chiefdoms, complex or paramount chiefdoms and eventually early states. Now, even without Huns emerging as a paramount chiefdom in Europe (altough I find dubious at best that they would migrate estwards to China : I'd rather see them entering in Persia), a wave of Sarmatized eastern peoples would still go westwards under another name (probably part of groups that formed Huns in the IVth century) which would still push part of Goths in Romania. If ITTL, Romans manage to integrated smaller foedi in Moesia and Pannonia, it would allow already romanized Goths to get a presence on both banks of the Danube.

Basically, it would make Gothic chiefdoms having still access to a stronger Romania, with subsides, trade and mercenariate remaining tools of mobilisation and reinforcement of economical centralisation, without taking risk of forming a political threat to Romans using super-Gutthiude as an airbag against the likely other waves of steppe peoples.
I don't really see Gothic chiefdom holding more than northern Danubian basin and coast of Black Sea as such, altough who knows what eventually emerging early states could do, giving that the main center of political/economical/cultural gravity will be Rome and not underpopulated and backwards territories. At the very best, some sort of tributarisation of these areas and that's it, especially if a Gothic people manage to pull a paramount chiefdom out of this.
Not that it would be without consequences : A romanized Germano-Sarmatic enseble would have influence over Balto-Slavic formations.

Just a query in my own thread but over time is it possible for a Gothic homeland in the Ukraine to expand to include all of European Russia?
Not in the forseeable future : we're talking of complex chiefdoms at best, with all the unstability it implies. We couldn't speak of a Gothic empire there, as much the Hunnic empire was really a political/tributary network briefly maintained and dominated by Huns thanks to Roman subsides. Without these going out of hand in the Vth century, Gothic chiefdoms would have to make do, and probably barely able to expand their influence (and even more their territories) much northern, altough a strong influence over IOTL Ukraine is perfectly admittable.

The greatest challenge would be absorbing and assimilating the various Slavic groups.
I don't see it happening : not all Goths would be concerned by such network dominance, more likely Black Sea Goths, and even if they could pull it (which I don't think they could), they'd rather be slavicized as Huns were importantly germanized : the process would be all the more easy thanks to common sarmaticized elements.
 
It's unlikely that we would be talking of one Gothic state, or even two : Gutthiuda was, for exemple, an ensemble of Gothic and related peoples chiefdoms held together by a sense of political coalition and percieved kinship.
I'll prefer not mention the legendary dominion of Greuthingi and Ermanaric over the Pontic Steppe, just to say it's as credible as a 3$ bill : take it at face value at your own risk.

Gothic peoples (which would probably be seen as a larger ensemble between Pannonian Plain and Pontic Plain) would be dependent on their connection to Romania to prosper and form, from simple chiefdoms, complex or paramount chiefdoms and eventually early states. Now, even without Huns emerging as a paramount chiefdom in Europe (altough I find dubious at best that they would migrate estwards to China : I'd rather see them entering in Persia), a wave of Sarmatized eastern peoples would still go westwards under another name (probably part of groups that formed Huns in the IVth century) which would still push part of Goths in Romania. If ITTL, Romans manage to integrated smaller foedi in Moesia and Pannonia, it would allow already romanized Goths to get a presence on both banks of the Danube.

Basically, it would make Gothic chiefdoms having still access to a stronger Romania, with subsides, trade and mercenariate remaining tools of mobilisation and reinforcement of economical centralisation, without taking risk of forming a political threat to Romans using super-Gutthiude as an airbag against the likely other waves of steppe peoples.
I don't really see Gothic chiefdom holding more than northern Danubian basin and coast of Black Sea as such, altough who knows what eventually emerging early states could do, giving that the main center of political/economical/cultural gravity will be Rome and not underpopulated and backwards territories. At the very best, some sort of tributarisation of these areas and that's it, especially if a Gothic people manage to pull a paramount chiefdom out of this.
Not that it would be without consequences : A romanized Germano-Sarmatic enseble would have influence over Balto-Slavic formations.


Not in the forseeable future : we're talking of complex chiefdoms at best, with all the unstability it implies. We couldn't speak of a Gothic empire there, as much the Hunnic empire was really a political/tributary network briefly maintained and dominated by Huns thanks to Roman subsides. Without these going out of hand in the Vth century, Gothic chiefdoms would have to make do, and probably barely able to expand their influence (and even more their territories) much northern, altough a strong influence over IOTL Ukraine is perfectly admittable.


I don't see it happening : not all Goths would be concerned by such network dominance, more likely Black Sea Goths, and even if they could pull it (which I don't think they could), they'd rather be slavicized as Huns were importantly germanized : the process would be all the more easy thanks to common sarmaticized elements.

So basically literally everything would have to go right for them to pull a Kievan Rus out of Gutthiuda.
 
So basically literally everything would have to go right for them to pull a Kievan Rus out of Gutthiuda.
A narrow kind of right, actually : not too strong to not be a threat to eastern Romania (there's little process as efficient to strengthen chiefs than forming coalition to raid the heck out of prosper lands) because that would mean either Romans kicking in (or rather, neighbouring peoples recieving Roman subsides for doing the job), or Goths going southward.
But let's imagine that Greuthingi entities entering in a cyclical chiefdom process, and having something resembling to the mix of late Bosporan Kingdom, foedus and Barbarian features. From there, arguably on a process that would take some decades at best, probably one or two centuries (maybe more to really getting stabilized), a relatively unified dominance on Pontic Steppe between Moldavia and Don isn't unthinkable, as you said with the right suite of events.
 
@LSCatilina

I’ve been looking at various books online about the history of the goths and both Amazon and Barnes and Noble have an ebook called “The Early History of the Goths” by Edward Gibbon, the author of The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. I can find no other reference to this book ever existing and it was recently released.

Have you ever read it and is it a good source?
 
@LSCatilina
“The Early History of the Goths” by Edward Gibbon, the author of The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.
Have you ever read it and is it a good source?
Never heard of it, actually : are you sure it's not an excrept of this Roman Empire?

That said, giving Gibbon's viewpoint on the topic, while interesting and structurate for his periods, are largely outdated even when he had access to written sources...I fear to imagine what he could have furthermore said on Goths without the insights we have now on historical method and archeology. I'd rather advise Guy Halsall or Peter Hearth as good contemporary searchers (while I rather agree more with Halsall myself).
 
Never heard of it, actually : are you sure it's not an excrept of this Roman Empire?

I honestly have no idea. The description doesn’t tell me much. https://www.amazon.com/Early-Histor...02426&sr=8-1-fkmrnull&ref=mp_s_a_1_fkmrnull_1

That said, giving Gibbon's viewpoint on the topic, while interesting and structurate for his periods, are largely outdated even when he had access to written sources...I fear to imagine what he could have furthermore said on Goths without the insights we have now on historical method and archeology. I'd rather advise Guy Halsall or Peter Hearth as good contemporary searchers (while I rather agree more with Halsall myself).


Thanks I’ll have to check them out
 
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