Without the 22nd ammendment, how many terms can Bill Clinton get?
- Thread starter dw93
- Start date
Probably three. He might die of a heart attack if he goes for more terms, especially after the stress of 9/11.
Then again, this would make the FDR comparisons almost inevitable. A charismatic Democratic governor is elected after three terms of Republican dominance in the White House. He breaks the tradition and runs for, and wins, a third term in office. Only a few months into his third term, America is attacked by a foreign entity, causing us to go to war.
Then again, this would make the FDR comparisons almost inevitable. A charismatic Democratic governor is elected after three terms of Republican dominance in the White House. He breaks the tradition and runs for, and wins, a third term in office. Only a few months into his third term, America is attacked by a foreign entity, causing us to go to war.
If Bill Clinton is elected president in 1992 (and 1996) that probably means that no president has gotten a third term since FDR. A third term for any post-1945 president will probably change things enough so that he won't be elected. This means that while there is no 22nd Amendment, the political *tradition* against third terms has been revived (with FDR being recognized as an exception due to World War II), and it will be hard for Clinton to overcome, given that there does not seem to be any emergency in the world in 2000.
Clinton's approval ratings were high enough (somewhere between 55 and 65%), so with that, a good economy, and relative stability abroad, Clinton has a very good chance at a third term if he wanted it, heck despite running a horrible campaign, Gore won the popular vote in OTL and was just 537 votes shy of winning the deciding state. Plus, Clinton running for a third term, doesn't change the fact that George Dubya was the best the GOP could come up with in 2000. Outside of some voter fatigue, what does Clinton have to overcome?
Plus, I doubt any other two term post war President is going to seek a third. Ike's health would prohibit him from running and he seemed pretty eager to retire. While I think Reagan would've wanted to seek a third term, and despite being somewhat popular at the end, I think Nancy would stop him from running for a third term, and if we're going for post Clinton two term presidents, do I need to explain George W. Bush.
Last edited:
If there's no 22nd amendment then odds are 1992 would be Clinton VS Reagan, and after the successful end to the Cold War and the Mid-East conflict combined with no "no new taxes pledge" I would think that 1992 could very well be a Reagan victory.
Under this theory Bill never would make it to a first term unless he waited it out until 1996. Now if we operate under the assumption that everything goes as it was in OTL then I still couldn't see Bill doing it. Either he would most certainly be impeached (the possibility of a third term would give the GOP more energy to go through with impeachment) or, under the pressure from the scandal and a much more fiery GOP I could see Bill bowing to pressure and not running.
Under this theory Bill never would make it to a first term unless he waited it out until 1996. Now if we operate under the assumption that everything goes as it was in OTL then I still couldn't see Bill doing it. Either he would most certainly be impeached (the possibility of a third term would give the GOP more energy to go through with impeachment) or, under the pressure from the scandal and a much more fiery GOP I could see Bill bowing to pressure and not running.
Reagan would be an old man by 1988, and his alzheimers diagnosis would terminate his political career. He might pull off a victory in 1988, but by 1992 he would be leaving politics for sure.
If the PoD is early enough that the 22nd is never passed, then butterflies from the fairly massive changes needed to NOT pass it mean Bill Clinton gets 0 terms.
OTL, he was a pretty long shot.
OTL, he was a pretty long shot.
Not necessarily. None of the other post-WWII presidents were really affected by the 22nd Amendment prior to Clinton.
Truman was eligible because he was grandfathered in, but declined to run.
Eisenhower was old and had health issues.
Kennedy was assassinated.
Johnson served less than half of Kennedy's term and was eligible to run again, but did terribly in the primaries and dropped out.
Nixon resigned under threat of impeachment.
Ford was defeated in his reelection bid.
Carter was defeated in his reelection bid.
Reagan had the same problems as Eisenhower.
Bush was defeated in his reelected bid.
I could easily see the fallout of the Lewinsky scandal including a pledge by him that he won't run for a third term. Even when his approval ratings rebound, he won't really be able to undo his pledge, especially with Gore running in his place and given the extent of Clinton fatigue that existed in the Democratic Party at the time OTL.
Bill Clinton retires in 2000 like OTL. Come 2012, he upstages Obama at the convention, steals the nomination, and wins the election.
I agree with this it was passed when Clinton was young and he most likely doesnt make any of the same choices or decisions that lead to him even decidng to run in the first place. The same could be said for anyone after Truman or Ike.
Reagan would have been elected until he couldn't form a coherent sentence. That would likely be in 1996, two years after he was formally diagnosed with Alzheimer's.
Same thing goes for Clinton, assuming he is ever elected (he benefited greatly from the reluctance of many in the Democratic Party to take a run at Bush I, that left money and screen time for Clinton). He would STILL be president.
Both of them were politicians of the first order, as different as two men could be in pretty much every other way, but they could speak to the electorate. No one else in the last half century comes anywhere close.
Same thing goes for Clinton, assuming he is ever elected (he benefited greatly from the reluctance of many in the Democratic Party to take a run at Bush I, that left money and screen time for Clinton). He would STILL be president.
Both of them were politicians of the first order, as different as two men could be in pretty much every other way, but they could speak to the electorate. No one else in the last half century comes anywhere close.
Sabot Cat
Banned
Clinton's pitches for a third and fourth term
2000: I brought you prosperity, amirite? That's right. Also I have an astronomical approval rating as far as impeached Presidents go.
2004: You can't change horses midstream; we're fighting this War on Terror, and we can't have any disruptions in whose leading.
It all depends if he gets blamed for 9/11 or not, to be honest.
2000: I brought you prosperity, amirite? That's right. Also I have an astronomical approval rating as far as impeached Presidents go.
2004: You can't change horses midstream; we're fighting this War on Terror, and we can't have any disruptions in whose leading.
It all depends if he gets blamed for 9/11 or not, to be honest.
Is it even plausible that anyone is able to handle 9/11 less competent than Dubya managed to?
It depends on whether another person had breached the 3rd term thing.
If not he is asked these questions
Do you really think you are equivalent to FDR?
Is there really a crisis equivalent to 1940?
If not he is asked these questions
Do you really think you are equivalent to FDR?
Is there really a crisis equivalent to 1940?
If it is possible for him to get a third term, and no one else ever tried for a third, then I see him as being impeached, as he kept his job since it was near the end of his term. Now there is the possibility he tries for a third. If he is sacked though, Al Gore takes the small portion of his last term, and can still try running for two other terms.
Dayton Kitchens
Banned
I don't know how many of you were adults during the Monica Lewinsky scandal
But a substantial part of Clinton's defense by his followers were
"He's only got two years left".
If he had been eligible to run for a third term, I think the Democratic Party would've pressured him not to run and allow Gore or Bradley to carry the party mantle.
But a substantial part of Clinton's defense by his followers were
"He's only got two years left".
If he had been eligible to run for a third term, I think the Democratic Party would've pressured him not to run and allow Gore or Bradley to carry the party mantle.