Without Islam, what religion would win in Central Asia.

IOTL, the area roughly analogous to the "stans" was highly religiously fractious prior to the rise of Islam. The region had populations which were Buddhist (especially in Afghanistan), Zoroastrian, Manichaeist, and Nestorian Christian, with a smattering of Hindus and shamanistic religions like Tengriism as well.

I've often wondered, in a world where either Islam never rose, or where Persia successfully resisted, what would have happened here. The lazy thing to do is simply project the past onto the future, and imagine segments would stay Buddhist, Christian, etc. But if one religion came to the forefront, what do you guys think it would be?
 
Zoroastrianism, because it would be the official religion of the highly influential Persia.
 
Well AIUI, the big reason Central Asia turned to Islam around 700-1000 or so was that the Turkic Migration was happening around this time, and Islam opened up numerous geopolitical opportunities. Absent Islam, these opportunities would likely be best exploited as Christians.
 
Zoroastrianism, because it would be the official religion of the highly influential Persia.

The problem with Zoroastrianism is that it started out as the religion of settled Iranian people, and thus had serious problems with the "people of the horse" (i.e. nomads) that raided them. From what I understand, Zoroastrianism had serious issues with nomads, and that will make it very unatrractive to any central Asian warlord because he would alienate his powerbase by adopting it. Christianity is a possibility, but at the only sects influential in the region (Assyrians and Miaphysites) required weekly liturgies with bread and wine, and I'm not sure that the nomads would run into too much of either unless they settled down.

My money is either on Buddhism or something shamanistic, but the minorities from other religions would remain.
 
Christianity is a possibility, but at the only sects influential in the region (Assyrians and Miaphysites) required weekly liturgies with bread and wine, and I'm not sure that the nomads would run into too much of either unless they settled down.

There's actually a thread on Christianity and nomadism -- I tend to come down on the side that says they're perfectly compatible, esp. if the religion is smartly proselytized...
 
In the near term, Buddhism. Central Asia was beginning to fall under the Chinese sphere of influence during this time, and the Tang Dynasty era was very Buddhist. Tibet converted during this time period. I assume Buddhism will likewise become entrenched (the area had Buddhist inclinations for centuries).

The major Christian powers are too far away to effectively patronize the areas, even assuming they could get past the Nestorian nature of the local Christians.

Nestorian Christianity will probably remain as a significant minority religion in a majority Buddhist culture.

Eventually, if an Orthodox power emerges in Russia and expands to Siberia and Central Asia, that will change things. We might see the combined numbers of Orthodox-Nestorian Christians become dominant.
 
Right then, what about Tengriism? It is indigenous and easily related to by the Central Eurasian nomadic peoples.
 
Syncretism with one religion or the others... Like in Tibet, Tantric Buddhism fused with the indigenous roots of Bon, the native shamanistic-like religion.
 
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