Without Great Depression

What if there is no Great Depression?

What would be the GDP size of the United States, Japan, Canada, Europe, Australia, Argentina and Brazil if there's no Great Depression?
 
Do you mean their GDP today?

Because, if so, there are so many factors which could change them it's not even funny. For instance, would WWII happen without the Great Depression? Some would argue not... in which case, the relative positions of the US and GB probably change much more slowly, while that of Germany is better overall.

However, it's just not possible to make any precise statements.
 
Do you mean their GDP today?

Because, if so, there are so many factors which could change them it's not even funny. For instance, would WWII happen without the Great Depression? Some would argue not... in which case, the relative positions of the US and GB probably change much more slowly, while that of Germany is better overall.

However, it's just not possible to make any precise statements.

Yes, GDP size today of the United States, Japan, Canada, Europe, Australia, Argentina and Brazil if there's no Great Depression.
 
I think WW2 might have happened at a later date-maybe with the Soviet Union in the second half of the 1940s. Combine that with a postwar recession in the early Fifties and who knows what the economy might look like later on? Or maybe it only happens against Japan, which didn't suffer as badly as most Western countries did and went down their militaristic path for other reasons.

But it would be interesting to see what the politics of a prosperous 1930s might have been like for the United States. Maybe Roosevelt wouldn't have gotten elected, and prohibition might have been repealed later. Keynesian economics wouldn't have taken hold and the welfare states of Europe would probably be smaller if they existed at all. The Gold Standard would most likely have survived. Labor unions probably wouldn't be as politically influential as they are now.
 
I think you have first to figure out what will be the POD that prevents the great depression. I can't see how you are going to get rid of the depression without also making other big changes.

The great depression really changed, for one thing, the political environment of the world. People were fed up with their governments for not preventing the depression and put new governments into power. For example, FDR elected President of the U.S. and Adolf Hitler coming to power in Germany. If there had been no depression, it is unlikely either of these fellows would have been in power.

KEVP
 
I think you have first to figure out what will be the POD that prevents the great depression. I can't see how you are going to get rid of the depression without also making other big changes.

The great depression really changed, for one thing, the political environment of the world. People were fed up with their governments for not preventing the depression and put new governments into power. For example, FDR elected President of the U.S. and Adolf Hitler coming to power in Germany. If there had been no depression, it is unlikely either of these fellows would have been in power.

KEVP

Yes. In Argentina the depression lead to the first succesfull military coup in more than 80 years. Yrigoyen (democratic, center-left) was deposed, and a right-wing military proto-fascist regime was installed. This regime lasted only two years, but that may have been enough to damage our democracy severely.

Without the depression, there may have been no coup, no support for a coup, or it might have failed if intended. Yrigoyen's support would probably still fall (it happens with every president, and Yrigoyen was very old), but maybe the Conservatives would prefer to form a party and to defeat his movement in an election, instead of talking the shortcut of a coup.

The "climate" that lead to the coup dated back to 1916. Conservatives were sure they would win in "real" democratic elections, and yet they lost. They were unable to unite in a decent party. In the early twenties, some became fascinated with fascism, militarism and Rivera's dictatorship. But these were a minority. The mayority of Conservatives were still admirors of Great Britain and France.

They could tolerate to be displaced from political power, as long as the economy kept growing, and the cash kept flowing to their pockets (many held vast extensions of land in the pampas, and were benefited by British purchase of Argentine goods). Money was so great that they didn't bother much if the government raised taxes and used the money for social projects.

But with the crises, the influx of pounds was greatly reduced, as Great Britain reduced foreign imports (and privileged imports from their "empire"). The local GDP was greatly reduced. This meant that they needed to act quickly and recover political power if they wanted to limit the effects of the crisis in their personal budjects. They needed to get control of the state.

Without depression, this doesn't need to happen. Argentina might keep growing till democracy consolidates. If it does, its GDP would be far greater nowadays...
 
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