In our timeline, Osama Bin Laden received celebrity status throughout the Islamic world by participating in the Soviet-Afghan war during the 1980s. Bin Laden used this status to lay the foundations for Al-Qaeda.
Bin Laden's first base was in Sudan, before he was forced by that government to relocate somewhere else. He chose to relocate his organization to Afghanistan, where they were protected by the Taliban until the 2001 US invasion.
The Soviet-Afghan war, which gave Bin Laden his celebrity and following, was caused by internal instability that had it's roots in the 1973 overthrow of King Zahir Shah by his cousin.
So, my question is, had Zahir Shah not been overthrown, thereby negating the Soviet invasion, would Al-Qaeda still exist as we know it or would it have never existed? If it would still exist, then what other countries could it have risen in?