With Russia neutral in ww1

Then theres no Great War that year. The Austrians punish the Serbs, the Kaiser finds some other shiny thing to exclaim over, the French and British carry on with whatever they were doing.

Perhaps Europe falls into a Great War later, perhaps not.
 
Then there wouldn't be Great War. Austrians would crush Serbia and enforce the country to terms of Austria-Hungary. France was going to war anly if Russia is on the war. Germany doesn't do anything so not France too. It had pact with Russia not Serbia. But Great War might begin later.
 
no joke I feel like there’s atleast a 15% chance austria somehow loses to serbia by itself

serbia survived while being cut off from the rest of the entente for quite awhile (only collapsing after Bulgaria joined the cp)
 
no joke I feel like there’s atleast a 15% chance austria somehow loses to serbia by itself

serbia survived while being cut off from the rest of the entente for quite awhile (only collapsing after Bulgaria joined the cp)

Probably, but I suspect Germany (and even Bulgaria) will pick up the slack somehow, after which, the Serbs are definitely boned.
 
no joke I feel like there’s atleast a 15% chance austria somehow loses to serbia by itself

serbia survived while being cut off from the rest of the entente for quite awhile (only collapsing after Bulgaria joined the cp)

In OTL A-H was still deal with Russians too. And since 1915 there was too Italy against the empire. ITTL Germany can freely provide support to A-H.
 
In OTL A-H was still deal with Russians too. And since 1915 there was too Italy against the empire. ITTL Germany can freely provide support to A-H.

also consider that austria probably isn’t going for total mobilization in this scenario, so you won’t see the same vast numbers that are in otl austria.

Assuming hotzendorf is still chief of staff, it’s going to be a nightmare for a-h even when they eventually win
 
no joke I feel like there’s atleast a 15% chance austria somehow loses to serbia by itself

serbia survived while being cut off from the rest of the entente for quite awhile (only collapsing after Bulgaria joined the cp)
Austria has not had a war in 2 or 3 generations with the army having degenerated into a dump for second and third sons of aristocrats to play officer while Serbia had a few Balkans wars as warm up and got recently equipped with most modern French weaponry, paid for by French loans.

A-H is certainly going to get a blue eye in the process but the difference in power is just too much and Serbia will lose out in the end.
 
OTL Austria performed horribly in WWI. But on the Serb front please note that it was the local commander, Potiorek who ignored the war plans and led Austria to defeat. Because Austria in the case of war with both Serbia and Russia was to defend against Serbia while concentrating most of its troops agaisnt Russia. That Potiorek tried to attack defying this with insufficient troops and in a very idiotic way paints an even worse picture of the Austrian army than as it was (it was bad without it). In this scenario, where Austria only fights Serbia, the plan was to held some reserves in Galicia but concentrate on destroying Serbia. Serbia had an experienced army but the difference in numbers is far too great. Hack Austria had more man in arms during WWI than the whole population of Serbia. So Austria is in for some setbacks if its lucky - to highlight their shortcomings. If not they win easily and they think everything is OK.

also consider that austria probably isn’t going for total mobilization in this scenario, so you won’t see the same vast numbers that are in otl austria.

Assuming hotzendorf is still chief of staff, it’s going to be a nightmare for a-h even when they eventually win

There was no plan for partial mobilisation instead there was a plan of mobilizing for a war with Serbia only. That still mobilised the whole army only left part of it in Galicia to watch Russia.

Quantitative difference is too big for Austria not to win.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
There always the scenario in which kaiser gives no blank check to AH and Russia threatens them and they back down from a full scale invasion of Serbia
 
There always the scenario in which kaiser gives no blank check to AH and Russia threatens them and they back down from a full scale invasion of Serbia

That almost happened, didn't it? Even with the blank check? After the Serbs accepted most of the ultimatum letter, the Kaiser was happy to let it go, but IIRC the German government told him they couldn't possibly stop the wheels that were already in motion.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
There always the scenario in which kaiser gives no blank check to AH and Russia threatens them and they back down from a full scale invasion of Serbia

That almost happened, didn't it? Even with the blank check? After the Serbs accepted most of the ultimatum letter, the Kaiser was happy to let it go, but IIRC the German government told him they couldn't possibly stop the wheels that were already in motion.

Yes - but Russia taking a dive and leaving Serbia out to dry is more in keeping with the OP's concept.

Question is- Is there anything that might come up between 1914 and 1924 that could put any of Germany, France or Britain so deeply at odds with each other that they could find each other at war for their own reasons? And further, could Russia remain uncommitted then. I think it would require some imagination and explanation.

It is probably easier to look for a PoD *before* 1914 rather than during or after that year to satisfy the OP's prompt. IE, a WWI starting over either the 1905 or 1911 Morocco crises, French interests, not Russian. Of the two, Russian neutrality is more plausible in 1905.

So, project the results of Germany ultimatum-ing France with Morocco as the pretext and invading France. Russia says "sorry, we're busy". But if it lasts long enough, and it probably will, Britain declares war over the German power grab. Italy, Austria-Hungary and the OE are all initially neutral along with Russia. Belgium is involuntarily dragged in.

The Germans have a single active front advantage, but the French are not throwing away forces with an early strategic offensive, which should help them hold Paris and other key parts of northern and central France.

Play that out with 1905 tech and forces.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
The best I can come up with for a 1914 or later PoD for WWI with Russia neutral is Russia falling into a revolution sometime between 1914 and 1924, and the Germans deciding they won’t let their chance for a one front land war against France pass them by again.

The problem is, although David T can quote Soviet theorists on how Russia may have been sliding into a revolutionary situation in 1914, it is pretty much taken as canonical here that no defeat in war = no revolution in Russia.
 
The best I can come up with for a 1914 or later PoD for WWI with Russia neutral is Russia falling into a revolution sometime between 1914 and 1924, and the Germans deciding they won’t let their chance for a one front land war against France pass them by again.

The problem is, although David T can quote Soviet theorists on how Russia may have been sliding into a revolutionary situation in 1914, it is pretty much taken as canonical here that no defeat in war = no revolution in Russia.

Quite agree: Russia was in what can be considered as various types of “a revolutionary situation” for most of the 3 centuries (actually more, ToT involved quite serious attempt of a revolution during the reign of Vasily Shuiski) but none of these situations evolved into a true and successful revolution prior to 1917: massive strikes and peasant uprisings were a part of a reasonably normal evolutionary process which by the early XX started reshaping regime and without WWI the process of the reshaping would continue without formal regime change for a prolonged period of time.

Not sure how WWI can happen without Russia: IIRC Russia and France had a mutual defense treaty in the case of war in Europe and, takin* into an account that France was the main source of loans for Russia, breaking of the treaty seems unlikely unless there is an alternative lender. So, say the US becomes such a lender (and main importer of the “technological things” ) to Russia and whoever is the current Russian emperor breaks the Russian-French Treaty. Germany then can attack France with impunity, Britain may get involved, Italy and AH would join the entertainment, etc. Russia, just as the US in OTL may break neutrality close to the end of the war.

It is an open question for how long the anti-German coalition would be able to hold the ground without the Eastern front: German advantage would be close to overwhelming (I think).
 
no joke I feel like there’s atleast a 15% chance austria somehow loses to serbia by itself

serbia survived while being cut off from the rest of the entente for quite awhile (only collapsing after Bulgaria joined the cp)
OTL's serbian front wasn't the Austrian plan. War Plan B called for three armies, rather than two, to be sent south. Additionally the delay caused by having to switch from War Plan B to War Plan R wouldn't have been a factor. So against a quicker invasion and the truly overwhelming force envisioned in the pre-war planning, Serbia probably doesn't perform as well as iOTL.

Though, with that idiot Potiorek in charge, Austria still probably gets a bloody nose early on. At least his replacement would likely come sooner without the majority of the officer corps being tied down and eaten alive in Galicia.

Assuming hotzendorf is still chief of staff, it’s going to be a nightmare for a-h even when they eventually win
Hotzendorf can handle a war against just Serbia, it's a very far cry from the OTL scenario of Germany pulling the rug out from under him, followed by Potiorek pulling the floor out from under him, followed by the nightmare of trying to coordinate a four front war while also navigating the hellscape that was Austro-German relations during WWI.
 
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