I hope it doesn't seem too hard knowing little about the TL which I mention in the ones being considered thread. But, I'm thinking a poll on this will work as well as in the 1804 one, which ws tied between Madison and hamilton befoer I broke the tie with Madison, expecting that the Federalists might split in '04.
Here's the sitaution. Jefferson wins in 17096, Adams comes back and takes the 1800 election to keep Hamilton out (Adams was very close in '96 anyway; his resignation from the VP leads to his entering the Senate later and also to an early 12th Amendment.)
Madison wins in 1804, because I see Adams' success (including getting Louisiana) causing a split between Pinckney, his VP, and Hamilton . Adams also refuses to back Hamilton, happy that Madison isn't as far out as Jefferson.
So, Hamilton leads the U.S. to victory in the Spanish-American War, but he's probably not the most successful general. Andrew Jackson, though not a general, is also a national hero, however, after the war. (The U.S. gets Florida and perhaps Guadeloupe fromt he French, I haven't decided.) James Wilikinson was...disposed of. (Don't want to spoil it)
The thing is, Hamilton culd even still win! So, too, could John Quincy Adams, a much more moderate Federalist - and the party has been moderatoing after Madison's stomping of Pinckney. Would Hamilton be willing to become more moderate?
James Monroe would also be possible for the D-Rs, but I looked at their other 1824 candidate, William Crawford, and he's only 40 in 1812, I think. I guess there is DeWitt Clinton, too.
Aaron Burr is building a polical dynasty in the state of Louisiana, so would likely not be interested. Oh, and the Federalists (thanks to my reading of a thread from before) pushed through a ban on slavery in all of the Louisiana Territory. (The fleeing of many to West Florida becuase of this is one thign that precipitates the war.)
So, am I missing someone? Or, if not, who wins?
One thing - I'd like John Quincy Adams (with him as President or Secretary of State) to be able to be in position to negotiate a teraty with Mexico to get some of their land (though not nearly what the U.S. got in OTL0 in exchange for money Mexico can use to pay off debts in 1820 or 1821. (Again, an idea from a thread on here.)
J.Q. Adams would likely remain a Federalist in TTL, but is close enough that someone coudl appoint him to State by crossing party lines, too. Or, just as an ambassador, I suppose.
Thanks, I'll check back on thsi in a number of weeks, maybe before November, maybe after.