No, the Franco-Prussian war hasn't taken place. I think the 2nd Empire is a likely outcome, seeing as Louis-Napoleon got overwhelming support in both 1848 and 1852, ad maintained high levels of popular support as late as May 1870. And the similarities are only superficial at this point: I asked about potential border adjustments precisely because none of the borders are set in stone, with the biggest change I've committed to being French A-L.I'd argue the second empire even existing at all in the first place is a wild choice, same with the (seemingly) OTL Franco-Prussian war. You'd be just as likely to see the Restoration Monarchy last. A 1810 POD would shake up European politics to such an extent that it's almost impossible to expect these events to occur is such a similar way.