Winter War WI

Stalin is going to attack Finland without the West preoccupied by a German invasion of Poland? That's a stretch.

Still, the Red Army isn't occupying the Baltics or dealing with Poland. Poland isn't letting the Germans through nor assaulting the USSR (why would they antagonize Stalin?). With more forces, and likely no warning, the Soviets break through as they did OTL (only sooner) while drawing the ire of the UK and France (who do little more than reinforce Norway when Stalin calls for mere border readjustments). Hitler now struggles to fuel his war machine without Soviet resources and his regime collapses within five years (whether he attacks Poland or not).
adolf-hitler-gif-5.gif
 
Who benefits more from a war of attrition anyway?
The USSR might but I'm not completely sure - the Finns, Germans and Poles may wear it down enough to force a favorable peace. There might be some case where Stalin is overthrown and his replacement makes peace with this alliance.
 
Still, the Red Army isn't occupying the Baltics or dealing with Poland. Poland isn't letting the Germans through nor assaulting the USSR (why would they antagonize Stalin?). With more forces, and likely no warning, the Soviets break through as they did OTL (only sooner) while drawing the ire of the UK and France (who do little more than reinforce Norway when Stalin calls for mere border readjustments). Hitler now struggles to fuel his war machine without Soviet resources and his regime collapses within five years (whether he attacks Poland or not).

UK and France probably see this as Evil vs Evil, and will not sympathize with either side. Hitler broke their trust in April 1939, and Stalin invaded Finland. Rather, they'll probably hope Stalin and Hitler destroy each other (which likely happens, if the war goes on long enough).​
 
UK and France probably see this as Evil vs Evil, and will not sympathize with either side. Hitler broke their trust in April 1939, and Stalin invaded Finland. Rather, they'll probably hope Stalin and Hitler destroy each other (which likely happens, if the war goes on long enough).​
They'll still reinforce Norway as a bulwark (something Churchill planned to do and which Chamberlain will likewise support) which prevents any German invasion in the future.

Stalin only wanted border adjustments with Finland (he knew a full scale invasion would piss off the West). Finland will happily agree and strip the West of any cassus beli for starting war (unlikely the West will be ready to attack before an armistice is called).

Germany is screwed without Soviet aid (they declared war only to discover Poland wanted no part and the West was as ineffectual as they had been at Munich).

With the USSR hostile, the West on alert, and no means to sustain a prolonged war, Germany is screwed...unless the West supports Germany (unlikely after Munich). Hitler either sees economic reason (and makes alliances with the West) which means cutting military spending, or he goes all in and fails miserably.

Of course, this could lead to rapprochement with China to garner what Hitler needs resource-wise. If Hitler were saavy, he'd dump Japan, revive economic ties with China, ally himself with the West as a bulwark against aggressive Bolshevism and thus survive. The West may even return colonies to sweeten the deal thus giving Hitler another public relations coup.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Stalin is not going to invade Finland without endorsement of Germany or the western powers, or at least without them being at war with each other. Stalin's decision to invade Finland was not in isolation.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Stalin is not going to invade Finland without endorsement of Germany or the western powers, or at least without them being at war with each other. Stalin's decision to invade Finland was not in isolation.
Well, it seems that's it.

Too sound a stateman Stalin was and not a paranoid, from time to time maniac, happily mass murdering dictator. ... oops ...
 
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