Winston doesn't have his Finest Hour.

Which of the following PODs is worst for Britain?
Between the invasion of Norway and the Fall of France:

  1. Churchill dies. No other change.
  2. Narvik somehow becomes a second Gallipoli, and Churchill gets the blame.
  3. The RN gets lucky, and the invasion of Norway is defeated, but Churchill finds some other way to disgrace himsellf
 
Which of the following PODs is worst for Britain?
Between the invasion of Norway and the Fall of France:

  1. Churchill dies. No other change.
  2. Narvik somehow becomes a second Gallipoli, and Churchill gets the blame.
  3. The RN gets lucky, and the invasion of Norway is defeated, but Churchill finds some other way to disgrace himsellf
#3, hands down.

Lord Gort is replaced as BEF commander by someone who actually follows orders (maybe Ironside himself takes over?), the push for an all-in counterattack towards the south is implemented, and the vast majority of BEF forces within the pocket get trapped somewhere east of Lille and eventually forced to surrender.

#2 was a sideshow of a sideshow and also featured such a large disparity in forces that I don't see how the allies could screw it up even harder than OTL anyway

#1 would probably result in a Halifax government that makes some overtures to peaces that are ultimately rebuffed. It could very well be a net gain for Britain, as the negotiations would likely delay Italian entry into the war, while the lack of Churchill at the helm means there's no proposal for a Franco-British Union, thus providing a good chance to Reynauld and his followers to secure support for a continuation of the war from Africa (as now there would be less fear among French members of parliament that they risk becoming a British dependency)
 
#3, hands down.

Lord Gort is replaced as BEF commander by someone who actually follows orders (maybe Ironside himself takes over?), the push for an all-in counterattack towards the south is implemented, and the vast majority of BEF forces within the pocket get trapped somewhere east of Lille and eventually forced to surrender.

So maybe the worst POD of all would be: RN gets lucky, and Winston gets the credit?
 
I actually suspect #2. In #1, then things will go more or less as OTL until after the British evacuate from Dunkirk, resulting in either a peace treaty with Germany or somebody else continuing the war in a less glamorous fashion. #3 would possibly be the best for the British because if the Norwegian invasion is foiled, the Germans will not have the resources to try again and will be faced with an Allied power directly astride their supply line to Swedish iron ore. In addition, this makes any German support for Finland when Barbarossa begins much more dicey and means that the northern front of Barbarossa is not so much of a threat.

teg
 
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