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Great Britain was in a really tough situation after the fall of France, June 1940. Its Expedition force had been crushed, with the remnants trying to make their escape at Dunkirk. With Charles Wood, 2nd Earl of Halifax (Lord Halifax) in charge after Neville Chamberlain’s resignation in May, Britain would have pursued negotiated peace. A negotiated peace was exactly what Hitler would have wanted, something along the lines of a disalliance with the United States, and some money in reparations. With Winston Churchill dead 9 years before, there would have been no “traitorous” minister to remove from power.
Without Britain’s belligerent and provocative influence in the Balkans, Hitler would have seen no need to aid the Italians in the crushing of Yugoslavia and Greece, and would have proceeded with Operation Barbarossa, the Invasion of the Soviet Union, on an earlier date. At around 3:15 AM, on about April 5th, 1941, the Invasion of Germany’s former Molotov-Ribbentrop ally.
Although with this earlier date the Germans would have advanced farther before the Russian Winter set in, Field Marshal Bock’s victory over Marshal Zhukov for Moscow would be an empty victory. The precursor to the KGB, the NKVD, had rigged many building with explosives, including the Hotel Moskva, Molotov’s Office, and the Kremlin. Any officers that celebrated victory in most of Moscow’s grandest buildings would have been blown to smithereens when the underground movement planned by the NKVD flicked the switch.
Still, the Soviets are not to be defeated. The rapid transplant of European Russian factories to Siberia would still have happened, and the massive industrial force of the Soviet Union would be awakened. Due to Hitler’s lack of interest, the invasion would have stopped at the Urals, and proceeded to secure Stalingrad and the prize it defends, the oil fields of Grozny. Stalin, the “man of steel” would not be deterred, we can expect to see a Soviet counterattack, fueled by Siberian oil, to crush the occupying force and liberate Moscow.
Although Siberian oil was largely untapped at the time, quantities were not enough by even the most optimistic standards to fuel the Soviet armored machine to Berlin. A detour had to be taken. From the sands of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan we will see a mass rush for Iran, and with Iranian oil the force will move to Iraq, gaining more resources in the process. The culmination of the efforts would result in a large pincer attack converging around Rostov, retaking Stalingrad in the process.
Through sheer man force alone, Nazi Germany was doomed from the start. With thousands of newly produced T-34 tanks and hundreds of excellent Yak-9 fighters, a combined air and naval superiority would have crushed the Nazi machine.
Although the casualties for the Soviets alone could be over 60 million, which is about 30% of the Russian population, the Soviet War Machine could have rolled into Berlin as early as 1946. Without an Allied presence on a Western Front, the Soviets would have trampled all of Europe, possibly finishing in at about 1948.
We would see a red Europe, headed by the Communist Party leaders of each respective country, and banners of Lenin and Stalin in every European city; Paris, Belgrade, Berlin, Rome, Lisbon, just to name a few. Great Britain most likely would have been invaded on terms of being traitorous to the Allied cause, securing an Iron Curtain extending from Dublin to Vladivostok, encompassing a population of 700 million.
Britain’s peace with Germany raises other questions, such as the war against Japan in the Pacific theater. With separate efforts due to the alienation of Great Britain with the US due to its Nazi peace, it is very likely that Burma would have been completely overrun, and a delay in the Manhattan Project without the presence of British scientists.
The British Commonwealth would be weakened greatly; it can no longer depend on Britain for support. Canada could very likely be annexed by the United States, and an increased US military presence in Australia and New Zealand.
Japan was foolish to invoke the wrath of America’s indisputably large industrial base, which without commitments to Europe would have focused entirely on Japan. Without a “Europe First” policy, we would have seen devastation of Japan’s Imperial Navy as early as May 1942. Japan would have been isolated by 1944, with those infamous raids over the home islands increasing every day.
Trooped headed by the famous “Vinegar” Joe Stillwell would have landed to retake Burma, and Chiang Kai-shek (Jiang Jieshi in present Pinyin terms) would have received all of his infamous Three Demands. Most likely after the defeat of Japan Chiang would have used his resources to crush Mao and his Communists, and establish reign over all of China and Mongolia, which he had repeatedly claimed , creating an authoritarian regime that ironically would mirror that of Mao’s.
The defeat of Japan would be the most horrible part. With Japan isolated in 1944, the US military command would be placed with a hard task in front of them. With the Manhattan Project stalled and its cost spiraling out of control, a land invasion would have most likely proceeded. Operation Downfall would have started with Operation Olympic, occupying the lower third of Kyushu.
Through millions of American casualties, almost unacceptable to the American public, we should see a defeat of Japan around 1947, having had to fight for every inch of the home islands. The US would not be in a position to secure Japanese occupied Korea, which would be completely occupied by the Soviets along with the southern part of Sakhalin.
Such is the horror of Britain’s peace. Red Europe, contested Asia, a Soviet monopoly on energy, and a weakened America.

©2008, Jimmy Tian
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