Winning in Afghanistan

How could the Soviets win the war in Afghanistan? By winning I mean creating a stable, pro-Soviet government, not preserving the Soviet state.
 
Arrange for captured stingers to be used in a terrorist attack on a western passanger plane.

Discredit the afgan insurgents, likely end aid (at least of sophisticated missiles) and greatly weaken Reagan.

With free reign of their air power in Afganistan, they eventually kill enough of the rebels and/or their supporters that the war winds down to "peace".
 
Even with what Corbell said, there's still a low-level insrugency going on; however the pro-Soviet government was a little stronger on the feet than the current NATO-backed one. On the other hand, they were very nasty themselves too.

I don't see how without outright cooperation from the Americans, actually.
 
I don't see how without outright cooperation from the Americans, actually.
I would say that "non-interference" would suffice. Chechnya shows that even very determined insurgency in mountain country with very porous border could be dealt with, if guerillas don't have foreign sponsorship with unlimited spending account (Chechen rebels had plenty of moral support, but not too much material one).
 
A stable government in Afganistan? Has it ever had one, let alone imposed from outside?

yeah mate, I believe the pre-Communist regime of King Zahir Shah 1933-73 was pretty preaceful & stable, though not marked by much progress- it was the damn Soviets who sent the place all to hell & gone with their heavy-handed intervention...
 
How could the Soviets win the war in Afghanistan? By winning I mean creating a stable, pro-Soviet government, not preserving the Soviet state.

Very difficult, not to mention the question if Afghanistan ever have had a "stable government".

I think it would require significant PODs both in the Soviet Union AND in the rest of the world, so it is in ASB-area.

1) A more professional Red Army (or at least parts of it) that could handle smaller wars and not including "soldiers" that spent their conscription showeling dirt. More airborne infantery, Spetnaz and ranger units, less heavy tank units.

2) More "hearts and minds" operations from the Soviet side. Bribes to tribal leaders, infrastructure projects, medical aid. But this would lead to the same kind of protests that the US meet today. Not to mention that "hearts and minds" operation, Soviet style, traditonally is "obey or die".

3) No US involvement. That was a fairly small part of all help the Mujahedin got - and the Stinger arrived very late in the war. However, it would help the Soviet side not to have another international conflict against the US.

4) No islamism revival in Pakistan during the 1970s. Keep Pakistan a muslim, but not fundamentalist/islamic country with less interest in helping their religious brothers on the other side of the border. Almost all supplies to the Mujahedin went though that border. A large part of the Mujahedin were recruited from refugee camps in Pakistan.

But as I said it is fairly ASB. Afghanistan was exactly the type of war that the Red Army and the Soviet Union was not prepared to wager 1979.
 
it was the damn Soviets who sent the place all to hell & gone with their heavy-handed intervention...
You would be surprised. Zahir Shah was USSR's bosom friend and his oust by radical Marxist officers was considered a disaster. Afghan revolution was an entirely homegrown affair, Soviets intervened only when they believed that googly-eyed Marxists are about to lose the country to American puppets Muj (American assistance to Muj started earlier than Soviet invasion).
 
You would be surprised. Zahir Shah was USSR's bosom friend and his oust by radical Marxist officers was considered a disaster. Afghan revolution was an entirely homegrown affair, Soviets intervened only when they believed that googly-eyed Marxists are about to lose the country to American puppets Muj (American assistance to Muj started earlier than Soviet invasion).

Indeed. Am I correct in thinking that the USSR tried to discourage the revolutionary officers from acting?
 
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