Wilson's Stroke comes Early

I've just been rereading When The Cheering Stopped, about President Wilson's breakdown in 1919. An incredible tale, but it struck me that in some ways America was lucky. Had the stroke come during WW1, or in the run up to American entry, rather than in the aftermath, the problems could have been hugely greater.

So WI Wilson collapses in February 1917? Seems to me there are about four options.

1) Resignation. The logical choice, except that Wilson and those around him are contemptuous of the Vice President, while Mrs Wilson fears that giving up the Presidency might leave her husband without the will to live.

2) Press on regardless. Go on as OTL, though with Wilson's war message having to be read to Congress by someone else. But in Wilson's present condition, the strains of tryng to lead the country in war are likely to kill him in short order, so this is just a more drastic form of (1).

3) Play for time. Though all believe war to be imminent, it doesn't necessarily have to be declared in April. Dr Grayson and the First Lady may try to stall, in the hope that two or three months hence, Wilson will be sufficiently recovered to take the helm again, even for war. In hindsight, almost certainly wishful thinking, but that might not become obvious for some time.

4) Constitutional coup. Starts off as (3), but at some point Vice President Marshall is prevailed upon to claim Presidential powers, on the ground of Wilson's inability. But if Marshall's record in 1919/20 is anything to go by, he would be very resistant to any such suggestion, fearing that the doubtful legality of such an act would create as many problems as it solved.

For my money, option (3) sounds about the likeliest, but nothing is guaranteed. Any thoughts on how the situation might develop?
 
IIRC, the timing you suggest would have a stroke before the Zimmermann telegram came to light (Wikipedia mentions it becoming public on 1 March). Assuming that's right, I don't know about playing for time: why would that be needed? That would also seem to obviate option 2. I'd suggest option 4 at this point, but it would take some fairly strong initiative within the administration; i.e., not Marshall, but perhaps Lansing and/or a few of the more powerful Democrat senators.

Muddling along with an incapacitated president would also stir up a hornet's nest on the Republican side of the aisle: it's a pretty fair bet Henry Cabot Lodge, aided and abetted by Theodore Roosevelt, would start a groundswell calling for at least a temporary "regency" by Marshall, if not removal on the grounds of incapability to discharge his duties. Then you're talking constitutional crisis, which in turn might table any discussion of entry into the conflict until said crisis was resolved.
 
IIRC, the timing you suggest would have a stroke before the Zimmermann telegram came to light (Wikipedia mentions it becoming public on 1 March). Assuming that's right, I don't know about playing for time: why would that be needed? That would also seem to obviate option 2. I'd suggest option 4 at this point, but it would take some fairly strong initiative within the administration; i.e., not Marshall, but perhaps Lansing and/or a few of the more powerful Democrat senators.

Muddling along with an incapacitated president would also stir up a hornet's nest on the Republican side of the aisle: it's a pretty fair bet Henry Cabot Lodge, aided and abetted by Theodore Roosevelt, would start a groundswell calling for at least a temporary "regency" by Marshall, if not removal on the grounds of incapability to discharge his duties. Then you're talking constitutional crisis, which in turn might table any discussion of entry into the conflict until said crisis was resolved.


A crucial point, of course, is whether the seriousness of Wilson's condition becomes general knowledge before the adjornment of Congress on March 3.

If it does, there may well be a move to push through a law bringing the new Congress into immediate Session. However, if this is initiated after Feb 20, there will be less than ten working days available, so if Wilson won't or can't sign it then the measure dies.

OTL, The Senate tried to guarantee an early return of Congress by holding up important measures, in particular the Annual Army Appropriation, so that these could not be enacted before March 3 . This was intended to ensure that Congress would be recalled by June 30 at latest [1], so that the Army Bill could be passed. They might still try this, but it would now be much higher risk, if Wilson flatly refuses to summon them, as he may well do if he suspects Congress, or a faction within it, of plotting his overthrow. While Congress is in recess, it is of course impossible to pass any law clarifying the manner of determining Presidential inability, even supposing that Dems and Reps can overcome their mutual suspicion suffciently to produce a veto-proof majority.

The problem about putting Marshall in is that making him President now could well mean making him a wartime one, and I suspect many in the Cabinet would find that idea almost as alarming as having the disabled Wilson in charge. Could all get very interesting.

[1] I got the June 30 date from a 1917 article in the NYT. However, on checking the Wiki article on the 64th Congress, I note thta the 1916 Army Bill didn't get passed until August. Presumably the US Army didn't close down in the interim, so that deadline may be less rigid than the NYT man supposed.
 
Top