William Walkers Nicaragua

Yes they can. And they probably will. Just because it's morally repugnant doesn't mean it's implausible, I'm afraid.

Walker, on the other hand, will most likely not die as President-for-Life as old age. But a more successful Walker will have big butterflies on Central America and U.S. politics. If he survives long enough to join the Confederacy, why that just begs for Seward to annex Central America... Not to mention the ACW come sooner over support for Walker. Or later.

Sorry, but I really doubt it will succeed in the long run. Don't forget the many, many tens, (if not perhaps a few hundreds) of thousands of potential guerillas in these areas; that kind of thing is what caused so many problems IOTL for the Soviets when they invaded Afghanistan, and they were about as decent, probably somewhat better, than that of the *Army. (Maybe we can just exchange PMs instead as not to clutter this thread. :))

Anyway, I digress; perhaps Walker could become a bosom buddy of the C.S. but I think it'd likely lead to a beatdown of epic porportions not seen since the fabled Masada incident of the days of Rome.
 
Yes they can. And they probably will. Just because it's morally repugnant doesn't mean it's implausible, I'm afraid.

Really? We had similar situations in our timeline with France in Algeria and Portugal in Angola. All had to give up in the end.
 
Really? We had similar situations in our timeline with France in Algeria and Portugal in Angola. All had to give up in the end.
The United States is a superpower and regional hegemon. And it doesn't care how many brown people die in its wars of conquest. :(

Anyways, let's not derail here. Walker's Nicaragua will probably lead to a Nicaraguan canal.
 
Even the U.S. of Decades of Darkness couldn't plausibly hold on to even Peru & Chile for more than perhaps 20 years or so; not to mention that they threw hundreds of thousands of men at Colombia and that took 30 years to quiet down. How could William Walker's Nicaragua even come close to that?

The author of that piece, and a large minority of it's readership utterly disagree with with that assertion.

Not that that means you're wrong, though I believe you are. It just means it's a terrible choice of example.
 
Really? We had similar situations in our timeline with France in Algeria and Portugal in Angola. All had to give up in the end.

Neither of those were superpowers separated from all other powers by oceans. Nor did either have over a century of successful experiences with conquest and direct annexation. Both their targets were relatively distant and surrounded by states that had recently won their freedom. Both France and Portugal faced serious economic problems.

It's comparing apples and the Orange Free State.
 
As for the core idea, it's not clear to me whether or how much American recognition of Walker's regime mattered to the governments of Central America.

That seems to be the key question. Walker will have enough trouble just holding what he nominally controls. If the Central Americans come in as in OTL, he's done.

Now if they are more cautious about it because of continuing American support, that's different. At a certain point, sufficient delays and limits on action might allow the Nicaraguans working with him time to get their feet under them. If they get a lucky win or two, that would legitimize them at home, and Walker in the US (by the time the story arrived he'd be a hero regardless of any actual contribution). And that in turn might see enough investment and immigration to allow the regime to stagger through to the Civil War, at which point things do indeed get fun.

It's also (so far as I know) possible that the Central Americans only followed through on their invasion because the US had made its lack of support for Walker official. If that's the case, Walker only has internal threats to worry about. I'd still be surprised if he held it together, but it's not impossible.

Also, no. He's never getting the borders of his statelet to South America, much less conquering the place.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
The whole idea is a non-starter. Walker's conquest was pretty ASB as it is; him staying in power is basically impossible, especially when his grinning, militant racism turned everybody against him.
To be fair, I forgot that the dagos will always melt away before the steely eyed determination of the white man.
The preferred term for Walker is "Gray Eyed Man of Destiny."
 
The author of that piece, and a large minority of it's readership utterly disagree with with that assertion.

Not that that means you're wrong, though I believe you are. It just means it's a terrible choice of example.

*Sigh* Maybe we can continue this elsewhere.

@Wolfpaw: He could just bring along tens of thousands of soldiers of hired guns to keep the peace. Though I don't know if they'd be able to hold off hundreds of thousands of pissed-off citizens all with various weapons in hand.
 
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