William Seward becomes governor of New York earlier?

[Vinization]

William Henry Seward was one of the US's more important politicians during the antebellum period and eventually the Civil War, being elected governor of (in 1838) and later senator from (1849) the state of New York. After being defeated in his attempt to become the Republican Party's presidential nominee in 1860 by Abraham Lincoln, he became his Secretary of State.

So here's the potential (and obscure) POD: Seward ran for governor in 1834 (four years earlier than his eventual victory IOTL), but was very narrowly defeated by the incumbent Democrat William L. Marcy. What if he was elected? First, this would mean that he gets more time to become a major national figure (not that he wasn't IOTL) since he would be only 33 years old by the time he took office.

Could this somehow affect the 1836 presidential election, which was won by Martin Van Buren IOTL? New York was his home state, after all, and having a Whig governor (who would probably campaign for Harrison) could mess things up in there.

 

[TheRockofChickamauga]

I doubt the Whigs could have won the 1836 election with the strategy they used of running four candidates. All that it did was ensure the Whig support was divided, and cleared the way for Democratic victory. Even if their strategy did work, than the election would be thrown to the House, which had 12 states controlled by Democrats, 12 states controlled by Whigs, one tied state between Whigs and Democrats, and one state under Nullifer control (which I presume would vote Democratic). In summary, I doubt any earlier Seward governorship has an immediate impact on history, but the butterflies might eventually impact something.

 

[Vinization]

Could Seward (assuming something happens with Clay and/or Harrison) run for president as the Whig candidate in 1840? Van Buren was greatly weakened, and even if the South completely rejects Seward (and it almost surely would) he could still win if he carried all of the Northern states plus Illinois.

Tensions would probably flare up earlier, given his firm opposition to the expansion of slavery. Would he be able to enact the American System (high tariffs, improvements to infrastructure and a national bank)?

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Could Seward (assuming something happens with Clay and/or Harrison) run for president as the Whig candidate in 1840? Van Buren was greatly weakened, and even if the South completely rejects Seward (and it almost surely would) he could still win if he carried all of the Northern states plus Illinois.

Tensions would probably flare up earlier, given his firm opposition to the expansion of slavery. Would he be able to enact the American System (high tariffs, improvements to infrastructure and a national bank)?

It would need to be a Harrison/Seward ticket or a Clay/Seward ticket. I do not think Seward is well enough recognized in 1840 to promote himself so well.

And even in 1840/1844, Seward is going to defer to Clay and his wishes, even if Seward is more independent/radical in thoughts of abolition. And Clay is the Standard bearer of the Whigs.

 

[Vinization]

Maybe there's big scandal/affair that turns the nation's eyes toward him, but yeah, Seward would probably become someone's running mate at best. Although I wonder how he would behave if he was the one to succeed Harrison instead of John Tyler.

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Maybe there's big scandal/affair that turns the nation's eyes toward him, but yeah, Seward would probably become someone's running mate at best. Although I wonder how he would behave if he was the one to succeed Harrison instead of John Tyler.

The problem with that though is the Whigs considered Harrison a Northerner (which is weird because Harrison was a southerner by birth, but I think residency matters more. ). And Ohio was a "northern" state in the 1840s. They needed a southerner to balance the ticket - hence John Tyler.

Its weird though that Harrison was born in Virginia. Lived in Ohio, but spent a lot of time as a Westerner to compete with the Jacksonian side....he is perfectly balanced anyway, but again the South is the key to most of the victories before the 1860s. A northerner might not go as well.

Honestly Seward's best time to be President is either 1848, 1856 or 1860.
1848 as Zachary Taylor's running mate, instead of Fillmore. Seward and Filmore were political rivals in New York State.
1856 is him chosen instead of Fremont.
1860. Him instead of Lincoln.