William Jennings Bryan President in 1915

Wilson appointed Bryan as Secretary of State upon assuming the Presidency. According to the Presidential_Succession_Act_1886, the Secretary of State was third in line to succession after the President and his VP.

On the evening of July 2, 1915, Eric Muenter, a onetime German professor at Harvard and Cornell universities, who opposed American support of the allied war effort, broke into the U.S. Senate and, finding the door to the Senate chamber locked, laid dynamite outside the reception room, which happened to be next to Marshall's office door. Though the bomb was set with a timer, it exploded prematurely just before midnight, while no one was in the office. Muenter may not have been specifically been targeting the Vice President.

On July 5, Muenter (who went under the pseudonym Frank Holt) burst into the Glen Cove, New York home of Jack Morgan, son of financier J.P. Morgan, demanding that he stop the sale of weapons to the allies. Morgan told the man he was in no position to comply with his demand; Muenter shot him twice and escaped.[71][72]Muenter was later apprehended and confessed to attempted assassination of the Vice President.[73] Marshall was offered a personal security detachment after the incident, but declined it.[74] Marshall had been receiving written death threats from numerous "cranks" for several weeks. "Some of them were signed," Marshall told the press, "but most were anonymous. I threw them all into the waste basket." Marshall added that he was "more or less a fatalist" and did not notify the Secret Service about the letters, "but that he naturally was startled when he heard of the explosion at the Capitol."[75]

POD is Muenter does his plot one month early, on June 2nd instead of July 2nd. His bomb works properly, and by sheer luck detonates at a time when both POTUS and VPOTUS were in its blast radius, killing both.

At this time, Bryan still had 7 days until his OTL resignation, and becomes automatically President.

Consequences?
Bryan tried to yoke the American credit to the Entente, saying "money is the worst of all contrabands because it commands everything else," but eventually yielded. He also pointed out that by traveling on British vessels, which were at risk of attack, "an American citizen can, by putting his own business above his regard for this country, assume for his own advantage unnecessary risks and thus involve his country in international complications" [41] Wilson's demands from Germany for "strict accountability for any infringement of [American] rights, intentional or incidental" after the sinking of the Lusitania troubled Bryan, who counseled an “evenhanded policy.”[42] Bryan resigned in June 1915, protesting “… why be so shocked by the drowning of a few people, if there is to be no objection to starving a nation.”[43]
 
Part depends on whether - since the man was so violently opposed to US support of the Allies - this mobilizes people to support the Allies more, even going so far as to appear to be a German plot. There might be the same cry for war in some circles there was in 1898 gainst Spain.

Bryan might very well order mobilization as a compromise, anyway, even though I think he'd declare the US was totally unready to actually fight.
 
Part depends on whether - since the man was so violently opposed to US support of the Allies - this mobilizes people to support the Allies more, even going so far as to appear to be a German plot. There might be the same cry for war in some circles there was in 1898 gainst Spain.

Bryan might very well order mobilization as a compromise, anyway, even though I think he'd declare the US was totally unready to actually fight.


Congress would have to pass the DoW over Bryan's veto, and I can't see that happening.
 
Bookie predictions:
10% German victory prior to Nov 1918
44% German victory by 1920
20% peace of exhaustion
22% Entente victory by 1920
3% Entente victory by Nov 1918

Agree? Disagree?

Also, does Bryan win a 'second' (or even 'third') term?
 
Bookie predictions:
10% German victory prior to Nov 1918
44% German victory by 1920
20% peace of exhaustion
22% Entente victory by 1920
3% Entente victory by Nov 1918
Agree? Disagree?

I'd say a tossup between the first two.

Small point though. Is there much practical difference between "peace of exhaustion" and German victory? As the Germans stand on enemy soil almost everywhere, if hostilities cease with the armies still where they were in Feb 1918, then it seems to me that she has effectively won. I'm dead sure that's how public opinion on both sides would see it.


Also, does Bryan win a 'second' (or even 'third') term?

A second term is entirely possible. Bryan's weakest spot was the Northeast, but as Wilson demonstrated OTL, it was perfectly possible for a Democrat to win without it. NH is about the only "Wilson" state that Bryan is likely to lose, and that's only four electoral votes. In addition, three states - IN, MN and WV - went for Hughes by 1% or less, and in at least the first two (I don't know much about opinion in WV) Bryan's isolationist line would be popular, while his domestic policies are likely to be close enough to Wilson's that he attracts the same set of voters.

I'm not so sure about a "third" term. He favored term limits for the POTUS, and iirc his health was starting to fail. I suspect he'd retire, esp if 1920 looked like being a Republican year. But by then so many butterflies are possible that I wouldn't like to be too definite about it.
 
Bookie predictions:
10% German victory prior to Nov 1918
44% German victory by 1920
20% peace of exhaustion
22% Entente victory by 1920
3% Entente victory by Nov 1918

Agree? Disagree?

The ones that I feel are most likely are underlined.

Also, does Bryan win a 'second' (or even 'third') term?

I doubt he'll win a second term. A boom was caused by Wilson's pro-preparedness which led to him winning Ohio. Bryan would oppose those pro-preparedness policies, as such, he would lose Ohio. Here's a map of what I think would occur.

genusmap.php


Hughes: 281 EV
Bryan: 250 EV
 
The ones that I feel are most likely are underlined.



I doubt he'll win a second term. A boom was caused by Wilson's pro-preparedness which led to him winning Ohio. Bryan would oppose those pro-preparedness policies, as such, he would lose Ohio. Here's a map of what I think would occur.

genusmap.php


Hughes: 281 EV
Bryan: 250 EV


Well maybe, but there are one or two doubtful points.

1) Wilson took Ohio (and Maryland) by hefty margins - seven or eight percentage points - so Bryan could do significantly worse than Wilson and yet still carry them.

I'm also a bit surprised that you've given SD - which Hughes won by a comfortable 4% margin - to Bryan, yet allowed Hughes to still win Minnesota, where OTL he squeaked through by less than 400 votes. I'd have thought the other way round more likely.


2) Also, it's by no means given that Hughes will still be the Republican nominee. The party bosses didn't choose him because they particularly liked him, but because he was the most conservative figure they could get away with nominating and still have a chance of beating Wilson. If, as you suggest, Bryan looks a lot more vulnerable than Wilson did, they may well risk a more conservative nominee - Elihu Root, perhaps, or Fairbanks or even Harding. In such a case Bryan might well pull an upset.
 
victory by 1920, regardless on who the winner will be mean only widespread revolution everywere and the difference between Germany victory by 1918 and peace of exhaustion is that in the first case, at least had the possibitity to impose term to at least the French or whateve in the second case, the order of the day will: save face and bring the men at home otherwise it's revolution time so any term will be, due to circumstance, much lenient.
Not that this will mean anything; i doubt that any goverment that will make peace in 1920 will survive to see 21
 
victory by 1920, regardless on who the winner will be mean only widespread revolution everywere

Depends. "by 1920" could just mean the first half of 1919.

And it could make a difference to what type of revolution. The only victorious power to have a revolution was Italy in 1922, and that was a right-wing one.
 
The ones that I feel are most likely are underlined.



I doubt he'll win a second term. A boom was caused by Wilson's pro-preparedness which led to him winning Ohio. Bryan would oppose those pro-preparedness policies, as such, he would lose Ohio. Here's a map of what I think would occur.

genusmap.php


Hughes: 281 EV
Bryan: 250 EV

What a contiguous electoral map
 
Depends. "by 1920" could just mean the first half of 1919.

And it could make a difference to what type of revolution. The only victorious power to have a revolution was Italy in 1922, and that was a right-wing one.

There is no need to be victorious for a revolution for putting an enormous wrench in any possible diplomatic plan or to scare/force the current goverment to cut loss, come to peace negotiations or abandon other places so to stop it and by 1920 could also mean late half of 1920. In any case any victory later than OTL will be so costly to almost meangingless for anyone involved.
 
2) Also, it's by no means given that Hughes will still be the Republican nominee. The party bosses didn't choose him because they particularly liked him, but because he was the most conservative figure they could get away with nominating and still have a chance of beating Wilson. If, as you suggest, Bryan looks a lot more vulnerable than Wilson did, they may well risk a more conservative nominee - Elihu Root, perhaps, or Fairbanks or even Harding. In such a case Bryan might well pull an upset.

Or... The assassination spawns a massive wave of anti-German sentiment which rolls right over Bryan, with Teddy Roosevelt surfing on it, yelling for vengeance.
 
Or... The assassination spawns a massive wave of anti-German sentiment which rolls right over Bryan, with Teddy Roosevelt surfing on it, yelling for vengeance.


No way can TR possibly get the 1916 nomination. The party regulars won't have him at any price.

And the nominating conventions are still a year away. If nothing has turned up implicating the German government in the assassinations, the hysteria will have had time to blow over.
 
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Based on replies upthread. Bryan wins thanks to that faithless elector in West Virginia :p


Was he faithless?

My understanding is that WV was one of those funny states (like CA in 1912 and AL in 1960) where Presidential Electors ran as individuals rather than as a slate, and that in 1916 the highest-placed Wilson Elector got slightly more votes than the lowest-placed Hughes one, resulting in a 7-1 vote for Hughes instead of 8-0. But all eight voted as they were pledged to vote.
 
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