William IV of Britain's daughter Elizabeth survives.

Quality and I agree. Miguel to Portugal alongside Maria and the other girls remaining in Brazil to boost thensuccession rhere. I imagine then that Ferdinand and Maria would still be marrying.

Should there be a miguelisr war with Pedro brother Miguel attempt to take the throne? Or would he not do that due to Pedro having two sons?

The issue between the brothers had less to do with a Carlist-esque fight over female succession and much more to do with Pedro being a liberal and Miguel an absolutist. That's not going to change with Pedro having another son.

Now if having another son causes Pedro and his father to hammer out the succession/Pedro abdicates his succession rights in favor of Miguel before his father croaks and leaves an ambiguous will, there might be less hold for Miguel Sr.'s pitch. IOTL it took Maria two years to leave Brazil for Portugal, and two days after she boarded the ship for Europe her uncle Miguel declared himself King. If Miguel and Maria leave for Portugal in summer 1825 (after recognition of Brazil's independence) when their grandfather dies the following year at least the new King and Princess of Beira will be in Europe, never mind Portugal, and the question of who's actually in the line of succession will have some clarity.

Of course, there will be some regency shenanigans, particularly as the royal family sided with Miguel's absolutism over Pedro's liberalism, but less succession chaos will help the situation. The main issue will be that if Miguel Sr. becomes regent he will either try to persuade his young nephew to take up absolutism or, if that fails, possibly follow his OTL track of declaring himself the King. Whether that will work when the monarch is in Lisbon rather than on a boat leaving Brazil is up for debate
 
The issue between the brothers had less to do with a Carlist-esque fight over female succession and much more to do with Pedro being a liberal and Miguel an absolutist. That's not going to change with Pedro having another son.

Now if having another son causes Pedro and his father to hammer out the succession/Pedro abdicates his succession rights in favor of Miguel before his father croaks and leaves an ambiguous will, there might be less hold for Miguel Sr.'s pitch. IOTL it took Maria two years to leave Brazil for Portugal, and two days after she boarded the ship for Europe her uncle Miguel declared himself King. If Miguel and Maria leave for Portugal in summer 1825 (after recognition of Brazil's independence) when their grandfather dies the following year at least the new King and Princess of Beira will be in Europe, never mind Portugal, and the question of who's actually in the line of succession will have some clarity.

Of course, there will be some regency shenanigans, particularly as the royal family sided with Miguel's absolutism over Pedro's liberalism, but less succession chaos will help the situation. The main issue will be that if Miguel Sr. becomes regent he will either try to persuade his young nephew to take up absolutism or, if that fails, possibly follow his OTL track of declaring himself the King. Whether that will work when the monarch is in Lisbon rather than on a boat leaving Brazil is up for debate
Hmm this is very true, and leads me to think that we should go for what you propose with Miguel and Maria leaving for Portugal in 1825, after Pedro has abdicated in favour of Miguel and the succession has been recognised with Brazil recognised as independent. The new king and hisnheiress being in Europe when joao dies. Miguel senior being regent and interesting shit kicking off from there.

Pedro remaining in Brazil brings good things me thinks, having an adult there definitely means less chaos early on

Also Ferdinand marrying Maria as otl makes some sense here right? As she is heiress
 
Hmm this is very true, and leads me to think that we should go for what you propose with Miguel and Maria leaving for Portugal in 1825, after Pedro has abdicated in favour of Miguel and the succession has been recognised with Brazil recognised as independent. The new king and hisnheiress being in Europe when joao dies. Miguel senior being regent and interesting shit kicking off from there.

Pedro remaining in Brazil brings good things me thinks, having an adult there definitely means less chaos early on

Also Ferdinand marrying Maria as otl makes some sense here right? As she is heiress

Either of Maria's OTL husbands make sense as Maria likely is marrying before Miguel, and Portugal will be looking for someone willing to move to Lisbon at least until Miguel has a healthy heir and spare

Re Spain, should I keep Isabella as queen, or see what Carlos would’ve been like as king?

Keep in mind Isabella is born 10 years after the POD. As such, it's possible her dad has a son which butterflies away the Carlist wars. Maybe Maria Josepha Amalia manages to have kids (I don't see any reports of reasons for her infertility) or have her die earlier and let Ferdinand remarry and get a son. Perhaps a short-lived son of Maria Christina and Ferdinand survives childhood. If any of these things happen Carlos is left without a leg to stand on.
 
Either of Maria's OTL husbands make sense as Maria likely is marrying before Miguel, and Portugal will be looking for someone willing to move to Lisbon at least until Miguel has a healthy heir and spare



Keep in mind Isabella is born 10 years after the POD. As such, it's possible her dad has a son which butterflies away the Carlist wars. Maybe Maria Josepha Amalia manages to have kids (I don't see any reports of reasons for her infertility) or have her die earlier and let Ferdinand remarry and get a son. Perhaps a short-lived son of Maria Christina and Ferdinand survives childhood. If any of these things happen Carlos is left without a leg to stand on.

Hmm this is true, I think having a tie to Greece and through them Russia through a marriage to Ferdinand would be good, what with Russia growing in strength.

and this is true, hmm perhaps two kids for Ferdinand and Maria Josepha Amalia, a son named Ferdinand and a girl?
 
Hmm this is true, I think having a tie to Greece and through them Russia through a marriage to Ferdinand would be good, what with Russia growing in strength.

and this is true, hmm perhaps two kids for Ferdinand and Maria Josepha Amalia, a son named Ferdinand and a girl?

Sure how about Ferdinand and Maria Josepha Amalia have more success after the Pope assures the Queen that having sex with her husband is not against the Church.
  1. Ferdinand, Prince of Asturias b.1824
  2. Infanta Maria Luisa b.1826
At this point then it's up to you if you want her to die of illness or in childbirth (with either Maria Luisa or a child that doesn't survive), or if you'd like her to survive. Certainly, her strict Catholicism would make for a conservative reign. Otherwise, you likely see Ferdinand remarry a year or so after Maria Josepha Amalia dies in order to beget a spare. While Carlos can't object to Fernando VIII, he probably would make noise over Maria Luisa as Princess of Asturias, so another boy would certainly ease tensions.


The one issue with Ferdinand is Maria of Portugal is the same age as Maria Nikolaevna, meaning if Ferdinand is heir to his uncle in Greece he likely won't get the ok to forgo his Russian match until 1838, and I don't know if Portugal is willing to wait for him.
 
Sure how about Ferdinand and Maria Josepha Amalia have more success after the Pope assures the Queen that having sex with her husband is not against the Church.
  1. Ferdinand, Prince of Asturias b.1824
  2. Infanta Maria Luisa b.1826
At this point then it's up to you if you want her to die of illness or in childbirth (with either Maria Luisa or a child that doesn't survive), or if you'd like her to survive. Certainly, her strict Catholicism would make for a conservative reign. Otherwise, you likely see Ferdinand remarry a year or so after Maria Josepha Amalia dies in order to beget a spare. While Carlos can't object to Fernando VIII, he probably would make noise over Maria Luisa as Princess of Asturias, so another boy would certainly ease tensions.
She really believed having sex with her husband was a sin?

Abd hmm I think seeing her die in an attempt to have another child and Ferdinand marry to have a spare would be good
 
She really believed having sex with her husband was a sin?

Abd hmm I think seeing her die in an attempt to have another child and Ferdinand marry to have a spare would be good
Though I admit seeing Maria survive to raise her son and daughter could have fascinating consequences. Ferdinand VIII is likely to be very conservative and keep his fathers absolutisn for a time
 
She really believed having sex with her husband was a sin?

Abd hmm I think seeing her die in an attempt to have another child and Ferdinand marry to have a spare would be good
Let's say she dies in 1828 from a miscarriage/childbirth with a stillborn. Maria Cristina still seems like a good bet to be wife number 4. She had four pregnancies IOTL which I rerolled as followed bold means survived childhood
  1. Infante Carlos b.1830
  2. Infante Felipe b.1831
  3. Infanta Isabel b. 1832
  4. Infanta Cristina b. 1833
The next question is who takes the regency for nine-year-old Ferdinand VIII: uncle Carlos, stepmother Maria Cristina, a minister? I could see whispers (true or not) that the Queen Dowager is trying to cripple the King to place her son, the new Prince of Asturias, on the throne instead. Plus, with two nephews in front of him already and the chance of a female monarch a distant possibility rather than an imminent threat, could Carlos and his supporters accept female succession for Maria Luisa, Isabel, and Cristina?
 
Let's say she dies in 1828 from a miscarriage/childbirth with a stillborn. Maria Cristina still seems like a good bet to be wife number 4. She had four pregnancies IOTL which I rerolled as followed bold means survived childhood
  1. Infante Carlos b.1830
  2. Infante Felipe b.1831
  3. Infanta Isabel b. 1832
  4. Infanta Cristina b. 1833
The next question is who takes the regency for nine-year-old Ferdinand VIII: uncle Carlos, stepmother Maria Cristina, a minister? I could see whispers (true or not) that the Queen Dowager is trying to cripple the King to place her son, the new Prince of Asturias, on the throne instead. Plus, with two nephews in front of him already and the chance of a female monarch a distant possibility rather than an imminent threat, could Carlos and his supporters accept female succession for Maria Luisa, Isabel, and Cristina?
Hmm I think Maria Cristina would serve as regent for Ferdinand, I can see Carlos considering it but ultimately deciding he wants to keep the successionas is
 
So we’ve got Britain under Liz ii sorted, we’ve got France under the duc de berry sorted, we’ve got Spain sorted and Portugal and Brazil, alongside Greece, are there any other nations that should see change?
 
True, carl xv son surviving would be good. Unsure if Oldenburg mainline should remain or not
Well, if I'm remembering correctly, there were Pro-Gustavian riots during the 1830s in order to get Gustav, Prince of Vasa on the Swedish throne.
Secondly, Perhaps we can have an Independent Norway?
 
And Iceland as an earldom - 'siciut regale' - as if the Earl was a King themselves. Style the Scandy King (Duke of Vasa would be a good idea) as a High King?
 
Hmm, what would cause them to do that though?
Well, the Free Kingdom of Norway only ended in 1814, in a brief period of independence between Denmark-Norway and Sweden-Norway. Our POD is 1817, so it wouldn't be that much of a stretch to have nationalist feelings emerge around the 1817-1830 period, and rebellions, riots, and further uprisings placing stress upon the union.
 
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