William IV of Britain's daughter Elizabeth survives.

Dead of cholera in 1831 as in real life, his brother gets made Viceroy of Poland instead of Ivan Paskevich and the Viceroy position becomes hereditary and eventually recognised as it's own monarchy.
Looks good to me and potential creating conflict when the issue of religion comes up
 
Will Mikhail's branch of the family stay Orthodox once they get their own crown in deference to the Tsar who put them there or will they his son or grandson be encouraged to marry Catholic brides and eventually become Catholic Romanovs.

If the later let's assume a son is born in 1829 during the gap IOTL between Catherine and Alexandra, meaning he's very young when he gets to Poland and considers himself as or more Polish then Russian. If so he probably marries a Catholic, if only because the Orthodox options are scarce. Maybe a Habsburg Archduchess like Elizabeth Franziska?
 
So, I think I've reached a conclusion. I think with support from Britain and France, Leopold would be nominated as King of Greece, and potentially confirmed with Russian support, through a marriage to Nicholas I's eldest daughter. Whilst waiting for her to mature, his nephew Albert or nephew Ferdinand could serve as heir apparent, with a stipulation that they too marry a Russian Princess.

Also, no July Revolution in 1830, potentially delays the Reform Act of 1832, as there is less panic over something similar happening in Britain.
 
So, I think I've reached a conclusion. I think with support from Britain and France, Leopold would be nominated as King of Greece, and potentially confirmed with Russian support, through a marriage to Nicholas I's eldest daughter. Whilst waiting for her to mature, his nephew Albert or nephew Ferdinand could serve as heir apparent, with a stipulation that they too marry a Russian Princess.

Also, no July Revolution in 1830, potentially delays the Reform Act of 1832, as there is less panic over something similar happening in Britain.

The question now becomes whether the succession is secure enough by 1838 (when the next Russian Grand Duchess Olga Nikolaevna turns 16) to let Albert/Ferdinand back out of the match. By then Maria will be 19 and the relationship probably consummated.

The scenarios are as followed
  1. Maria has delivered two sons, let's call them Constantine and Nicholas, who are both healthy. In this case Nicholas I probably feels the Orthodox succession is secured and allows Olga and her betrothed decide whether they still want to get married or go their separate ways
  2. Maria and Leopold either have no children, only girls, only one son, or their kids are sickly. Here Nicholas probably keeps the Olga and Ferdinand/Albert match just to act as an insurance policy in case there isn't a surviving Crown Prince from Leopold and Maria
If the latter scenario occurs there will be major butterflies either way. Either Albert marries Olga, in which case Victoria needs a new husband and, unless you butterfly away Ernest's STD, we likely get an Orthodox Duke of Saxe Coburg and Gotha; or Ferdinand marries Olga and we need to find a new husband for Maria II of Portugal.
 
The question now becomes whether the succession is secure enough by 1838 (when the next Russian Grand Duchess Olga Nikolaevna turns 16) to let Albert/Ferdinand back out of the match. By then Maria will be 19 and the relationship probably consummated.

The scenarios are as followed
  1. Maria has delivered two sons, let's call them Constantine and Nicholas, who are both healthy. In this case Nicholas I probably feels the Orthodox succession is secured and allows Olga and her betrothed decide whether they still want to get married or go their separate ways
  2. Maria and Leopold either have no children, only girls, only one son, or their kids are sickly. Here Nicholas probably keeps the Olga and Ferdinand/Albert match just to act as an insurance policy in case there isn't a surviving Crown Prince from Leopold and Maria
If the latter scenario occurs there will be major butterflies either way. Either Albert marries Olga, in which case Victoria needs a new husband and, unless you butterfly away Ernest's STD, we likely get an Orthodox Duke of Saxe Coburg and Gotha; or Ferdinand marries Olga and we need to find a new husband for Maria II of Portugal.

Hmm interesting which generates the most interesting scenario I. Your view? And would it be straining things too much to have either Miguel or joao Carlos, the sons of Pedro I survive?
 
Potential Child List for Leopold and Maria Nikolaevna (children in bold survive childhood)- Scenario 1
  1. Prince Constantine (b. 1836)
  2. Prince Nicholas (b. 1837)
  3. Prince George (b. 1839)
  4. Prince Paul (b. 1840)
  5. Princess Maria (b. 1844)
  6. Princess Alexandra (b. 1845)
  7. Princess Catherine (b. 1850)
  8. Prince Alexander (b. 1857)
  9. Princess Anna (b. 1860)
 
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Potential Child List for Leopold and Maria Nikolaevna (children in bold survive childhood)- Scenario 1
  1. Prince Constantine (b. 1833)
  2. Prince Nicholas (b. 1834)
  3. Prince George (b. 1836)
  4. Prince Paul (b. 1837)
  5. Princess Maria (b. 1841)
  6. Princess Alexandra (b. 1842)
  7. Princess Catherine (b. 1847)
  8. Prince Alexander (b. 1854)
  9. Princess Anna (b. 1857)
Looks good to me
 
The question now becomes whether the succession is secure enough by 1838 (when the next Russian Grand Duchess Olga Nikolaevna turns 16) to let Albert/Ferdinand back out of the match. By then Maria will be 19 and the relationship probably consummated.

The scenarios are as followed
  1. Maria has delivered two sons, let's call them Constantine and Nicholas, who are both healthy. In this case Nicholas I probably feels the Orthodox succession is secured and allows Olga and her betrothed decide whether they still want to get married or go their separate ways
  2. Maria and Leopold either have no children, only girls, only one son, or their kids are sickly. Here Nicholas probably keeps the Olga and Ferdinand/Albert match just to act as an insurance policy in case there isn't a surviving Crown Prince from Leopold and Maria
If the latter scenario occurs there will be major butterflies either way. Either Albert marries Olga, in which case Victoria needs a new husband and, unless you butterfly away Ernest's STD, we likely get an Orthodox Duke of Saxe Coburg and Gotha; or Ferdinand marries Olga and we need to find a new husband for Maria II of Portugal.
Should Pedro I have a similar situation as otl, or should one of his other sons suevive?
 
Should Pedro I have a similar situation as otl, or should one of his other sons suevive?

One issue is always going to be the weather in Brazil, which seemed to be a nightmare healthwise. I decided to reroll all of Leopoldina's pregnancies besides Maria, who was born after the POD and here is what I got (children in bold survive to adulthood

  1. Princess Maria b. 1819 (OTL)
  2. Princess Januaria b. 1820 (OTL Prince Miguel)
  3. Princess Paula b. 1821 (OTL Prince Joao)
  4. Prince Miguel b. 1822 (OTL Princess Januaria)
  5. Princess Francisca b. 1823 (OTL Princess Paula)
  6. Prince Joao b. 1824 (OTL Princess Francisca)
  7. Princess Leopoldina b. 1825 (OTL Pedro II)
Here Pedro has a better success rate with regards to children's survival, but still only has one surviving son compared to five daughters. If Pedro still falls in love with Brazil and wants to make it a separate crown, the question then becomes who gets Brazil and who gets Portugal. It might play out as in OTL with Joao merely replacing Pedro II nominally, or there might be a different strategy. Maybe when Brazil is negotiating independence Pedro sends over either Maria or Joao depending on who will inherit Portugal and one of the sisters to be educated in Portugal and be the Portuguese branch. So you have, say, Maria and Januaria in Portugal taking their father's place, while still having an heir for Brazil in Joao and 3 spares in Paula, Francisca, and Leopoldina
 
One issue is always going to be the weather in Brazil, which seemed to be a nightmare healthwise. I decided to reroll all of Leopoldina's pregnancies besides Maria, who was born after the POD and here is what I got (children in bold survive to adulthood

  1. Princess Maria b. 1819 (OTL)
  2. Princess Januaria b. 1820 (OTL Prince Miguel)
  3. Princess Paula b. 1821 (OTL Prince Joao)
  4. Prince Miguel b. 1822 (OTL Princess Januaria)
  5. Princess Francisca b. 1823 (OTL Princess Paula)
  6. Prince Joao b. 1824 (OTL Princess Francisca)
  7. Princess Leopoldina b. 1825 (OTL Pedro II)
Here Pedro has a better success rate with regards to children's survival, but still only has one surviving son compared to five daughters. If Pedro still falls in love with Brazil and wants to make it a separate crown, the question then becomes who gets Brazil and who gets Portugal. It might play out as in OTL with Joao merely replacing Pedro II nominally, or there might be a different strategy. Maybe when Brazil is negotiating independence Pedro sends over either Maria or Joao depending on who will inherit Portugal and one of the sisters to be educated in Portugal and be the Portuguese branch. So you have, say, Maria and Januaria in Portugal taking their father's place, while still having an heir for Brazil in Joao and 3 spares in Paula, Francisca, and Leopoldina

Oh interesting, now that’s going to be a hefty mix.
 
One issue is always going to be the weather in Brazil, which seemed to be a nightmare healthwise. I decided to reroll all of Leopoldina's pregnancies besides Maria, who was born after the POD and here is what I got (children in bold survive to adulthood

  1. Princess Maria b. 1819 (OTL)
  2. Princess Januaria b. 1820 (OTL Prince Miguel)
  3. Princess Paula b. 1821 (OTL Prince Joao)
  4. Prince Miguel b. 1822 (OTL Princess Januaria)
  5. Princess Francisca b. 1823 (OTL Princess Paula)
  6. Prince Joao b. 1824 (OTL Princess Francisca)
  7. Princess Leopoldina b. 1825 (OTL Pedro II)
Here Pedro has a better success rate with regards to children's survival, but still only has one surviving son compared to five daughters. If Pedro still falls in love with Brazil and wants to make it a separate crown, the question then becomes who gets Brazil and who gets Portugal. It might play out as in OTL with Joao merely replacing Pedro II nominally, or there might be a different strategy. Maybe when Brazil is negotiating independence Pedro sends over either Maria or Joao depending on who will inherit Portugal and one of the sisters to be educated in Portugal and be the Portuguese branch. So you have, say, Maria and Januaria in Portugal taking their father's place, while still having an heir for Brazil in Joao and 3 spares in Paula, Francisca, and Leopoldina
I’m going to be slightly dickish and ask, is it possible to substitute one of the girls for Miguel born 1822?understand if not
 
I’m going to be slightly dickish and ask, is it possible to substitute one of the girls for Miguel born 1822?understand if not
Sure it'll be your timeline. Maybe we can switch birthdays and fates for Paula and Miguel so it looks like this
  1. Princess Maria
  2. Princess Januaria
  3. Prince Miguel
  4. Princess Paula
  5. Princess Francisca
  6. Prince Joao
  7. Princess Leopoldina
In this case which of the boys inherits Brazil and which gets Portugal? Miguel is the elder son, but it'll be easier to send the 5-year-old across the sea to Portugal in 1826 then his 2-year-old brother Joao. I wonder if, in order to secure the Portuguese branch, Maria gets sent to Europe with her little brother to be Princess of Beira until Miguel gets married and has children. Januaria will probably become Princess Imperial for Joao and I imagine Francisca and Leopoldina will be encouraged to stay in Brazil and shore up the succession, with the possible addition of any half-siblings they might collect.
 
Sure it'll be your timeline. Maybe we can switch birthdays and fates for Paula and Miguel so it looks like this
  1. Princess Maria
  2. Princess Januaria
  3. Prince Miguel
  4. Princess Paula
  5. Princess Francisca
  6. Prince Joao
  7. Princess Leopoldina
In this case which of the boys inherits Brazil and which gets Portugal? Miguel is the elder son, but it'll be easier to send the 5-year-old across the sea to Portugal in 1826 then his 2-year-old brother Joao. I wonder if, in order to secure the Portuguese branch, Maria gets sent to Europe with her little brother to be Princess of Beira until Miguel gets married and has children. Januaria will probably become Princess Imperial for Joao and I imagine Francisca and Leopoldina will be encouraged to stay in Brazil and shore up the succession, with the possible addition of any half-siblings they might collect.
Quality and I agree. Miguel to Portugal alongside Maria and the other girls remaining in Brazil to boost thensuccession rhere. I imagine then that Ferdinand and Maria would still be marrying.

Should there be a miguelisr war with Pedro brother Miguel attempt to take the throne? Or would he not do that due to Pedro having two sons?
 
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