William III sells his sovereignty

In 1867 King William III of The Netherlands tried to sell his sovereignty over Luxembourg to France.
William yielded to Prussia's demand that the area be independent.
Suppose William III did not pay attention to Prussia. He sells his sovereignty over Luxembourg to France.
 

raharris1973

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Franco-Prussian War, 1867-

Prussia and allied German states win. Prussian led-Reich is established by 1868 and incorporates Alsace-Lorraine, but also incorporates (non-Belgian) Luxemburg.
 
Franco-Prussian War, 1867-

Prussia and allied German states win. Prussian led-Reich is established by 1868 and incorporates Alsace-Lorraine, but also incorporates (non-Belgian) Luxemburg.

And here I was thinking that, due to butterflies, Alsace-Lorraine would not be annexed.
 
I wonder if they might split Belgium in the process?
No, Belgium is not involved, so why would it be split?

What might happen though is a political crisis in the Netherlands. It already happened OTL, but in this case I think it is possible that they would get rid of the impopulair king.
 
In 1867 King William III of The Netherlands tried to sell his sovereignty over Luxembourg to France.
William yielded to Prussia's demand that the area be independent.
Suppose William III did not pay attention to Prussia. He sells his sovereignty over Luxembourg to France.

Let me expand the background info:

Since 1815, Luxemburg was a Federal Fortress of the German Confederation, with Prussian troops as the garrison.
In 1865 and 1866, Napoleon III offered French neutrality in the conflict between Prussia and Austria in exchange for Rhenish territory. Bismarck refused but implicated verbally that France might acquire the hegemony over Berlgium and Luxembourg as compensation for Prussian gains.
In 1867, France displayed interest in acquiring Lx. Apperently, at first King Willem III of the Netherlands tried to enter the new Northern German Confederation (only with Luxembourg) to keep the protection by Prussian troops. When France offered lots of money, King Willem accepted.
Once that became public knowledge, German newspapers "demanded that the Prussian government should intervene.
Since he really did not want to be drawn into a French-Prussian conflict, Willem claimed that because of the Prussian garrison in Lx, Prussian concent would be necessary; ie he practically withdraw his agreement to sell.
Bismarck would have probably been happy to see Lx sold, but the popular outcry in Germany made this impossible. (The only thing even more impossible was also floated by the French government: French gets Lxb, and Willem III is compensated with East Frisia and Bentheim that Prussia had acquired (as part of Hanover) the year before.)

So, your PoD is that W3 does not renege once German displeasure becomes visible.
Then Prussia will state that the Prussian troops in Lxb will remain there for the foreseeable future or until the fate of the important fortress is negotiated.
France can now withdraw their offer to buy, and things calm down.
Or France insists that W3 was allowed to sell and proceeds to eveict the Prussian squatters, well knowing that this means war.
Meanwhile, selling Lxb before negotiating the withdrawal of the Prussian troops, is pretty much a Casus Belli. Since this W3 is not impressed by the Prussian/German position, he ignores this.
So the cabinet Van Zuylen Van Nijevelt goes down, it is a conservative minority government dependent on the royal goodwill. Before the Netherlands blunder into a war with Prussia no sane Dutchman wants, the liberal majority in the Second Chamber will do whatever necessary to stop this madness. If W3 tries to invoke his royal powers, we probably see a minimum-violence emergence of the Dutch Republic with Thorbecke at its head.

Meanwhile, on a larger stage: In 1867, there was still a lot of grumbling in South Germany about any closer cooperation with Prussia. A war to protect a former Federal Fortress that was meant in 1815 as protection against future Bonapartist aggression? THAT is the cause every vaguely patriotic German can rally behind.

Since only Willem III has changed and the other players are the same: Russia is still a bit indebted to Prussia for the latter'S tacit help in keeping Poland down in 1863.
Italy is still hurt from the war one year ago, but also angry at France for not letting them have Rome.
Austria is trying to reinvent itself as a Dual Monarchy and practically unable to act militarily.
Bismarck can point at Napoleon III for trying to undermine Belgian neutrality. The UK, especially the Earl of Derby, will remain neutral. Well, unless Napoleon III actually tries to enter Belgium by force. But we have already stated that he he the N III of OTL, so perhaps a bit erratic, but not mad.


I would guess that in a war of France against Prussia and the Southern German states, France will lose for the same reasons they lost in OTL 1870. But it was a "perfect storm" that made the 1870/71 so long. Here, it might be obvious rather quick that Luxemburg cannot be taken against Prussian consent. We will probably avoid the capture of Napoleon III, the Commune of Paris, the proclamation of the Third Republic etc.
The Treaty will probably see Luxemburg as part of the NGC (but nominally not Prussian) and the dismantling/destruction of the French fortifications of Metz and Strasbourg. No German annexation of Alsace-Lorraine.
 
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