William Henry Harrison elected president in 1836

William Henry Harrison was the ninth President of the United States.
He was nominated for the presidency in 1836. He was defeated.
He was elected president in 1840.

Suppose William Henry Harrison was elected president in 1836. What happens then?
 
He is likely blamed for the bad economy and unseated by a Democrat in 1840, maybe even by Van Buren.
 
William Henry Harrison was the ninth President of the United States.
He was nominated for the presidency in 1836. He was defeated.
He was elected president in 1840.

Suppose William Henry Harrison was elected president in 1836. What happens then?

While it is easy for me to see the 1836 presidential election going into the House (just have Harrison defeat Van Buren in closely-contested Pennsylvania, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1836) it is hard for me to see Harrison winning there. It would be the *old* (24th) Congress that would decide, each delegation having one vote. According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/24th_United_States_Congress the Democrats (or "Jacksonians"; their "anti-Jacksonian" opponents by 1836 usually, but not always called themselves "Whigs') controlled the following delegations: AL, AR, CT, GA, IL, IN, ME, MI, MS, NH, NJ, NY, PA, VA. That's fourteen out of twenty-six delegations they controlled outright. (Missouri is listed in the article as tied, with one Jacksonian and one anti-Jacksonian.)

It is by no means clear that all "opposition" members of Congress would vote for Harrison in any event. Those from the Deep South preferred Hugh White as a fellow southerner and slaveholder; they did not really see Harrison as a southerner, despite his Virginia birth. And of course the South Carolinians rejected not only Van Buren and Harrison but even White as insufficiently pro-Southern (since he had voted for the Force Bill). But even if all non-Democrats voted for Harrison, I can't see how he could win in the House.
 
What about instead of being split up William H. Harrison picks Hugh L. White as his running mate, offers Daniel Webster, the office of Secretary of State and Willie Person Mangum, is offered Secretary of War.

This means a more united Whigs against the Democratic party, who are able to campaign harder and win the 1836 election.

I believe that unlike Martin Van Buren, Harrison had the economic tools and knowledge to avoid the Panic of 1837. Unlike OTL there will would be a five-year depression, with banks failing and unemployment reached record highs.
As ITTL John Tyler is kept away from the cabinet and instead Harrison chooses Henry Clay as his Treasurer, as both, Whig politicians, have a strong opposition to Jackson.
 
What about instead of being split up William H. Harrison picks Hugh L. White as his running mate, offers Daniel Webster, the office of Secretary of State and Willie Person Mangum, is offered Secretary of War.

This means a more united Whigs against the Democratic party, who are able to campaign harder and win the 1836 election.

I believe that unlike Martin Van Buren, Harrison had the economic tools and knowledge to avoid the Panic of 1837. Unlike OTL there will would be a five-year depression, with banks failing and unemployment reached record highs.
As ITTL John Tyler is kept away from the cabinet and instead Harrison chooses Henry Clay as his Treasurer, as both, Whig politicians, have a strong opposition to Jackson.

You have to remember that states like Georgia and Tennessee had been virtually unanimously pro-Jackson as late as 1832. What they objected to was his chosen successor being a non-slaveholder. Hugh White was the prefect candidate for them, because he was not only a slaveholder but could claim to have been a "true" Jacksonian on every issue other than Jackson's choice of a successor--he had for example voted against the re-charter of the Bank. https://books.google.com/books?id=_KhoAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA42&lpg=PA42

In 1836 a majority of voters in the two states White carried (Tennessee and Georgia) did not yet consider themselves Whigs. (Indeed, Michael Holt has argued that the Whig naming of various candidates in 1836 was not a "strategy" to throw the race into the House but simply a matter of necessity because there really was no such thing as a national Whig party at this time.) I doubt very much that they would have voted for Harrison, even with White as his running mate. After all, even the White-Tyler ticket only barely carried Georgia. And the chief argument used by southern Demcorats against a vote for White was that though personally unobjectionable, he could not win and might throw the race into the House where Harrison might be chosen--and they argued that Harrison was as much a "Federalist" and an "Abolitionist" as Webster! https://books.google.com/books?id=XtFENbexGU8C&pg=PA94
 
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Theoretically, Harrison doesn't need any Southern states, sans Kentucky, which is really a border state and Henry Clay land.

1836 (Harrison).png

Maine and New Hampshire went heavy Democratic, but Pennsylvania went for Van Buren 91,457 to 87,235 (51.18% to 48.82% or 4,222 votes). That's 30 votes right there. New York will probably be the deciding factor. If Harrison can carry it, which went to Van Buren 166,795 to 138,548 (54.63% to 45.37% or 28,247 votes).

With the map above it's 129 Electoral votes to Harrison, 123 Van Buren, with New York's 42 electoral votes holding the balance. That's assuming Harrison is butchered down south. But look at how close this is. If Harrison can snag a few other state equaling 20, he doesn't need New York. The question is which is more believable, a Harrison lead Whig ticket gaining New York, or a Harrison only ticket getting a few more states out west and down south?

1836 (Harrison).png
 
Theoretically, Harrison doesn't need any Southern states, sans Kentucky, which is really a border state and Henry Clay land.

View attachment 247934

Maine and New Hampshire went heavy Democratic, but Pennsylvania went for Van Buren 91,457 to 87,235 (51.18% to 48.82% or 4,222 votes). That's 30 votes right there. New York will probably be the deciding factor. If Harrison can carry it, which went to Van Buren 166,795 to 138,548 (54.63% to 45.37% or 28,247 votes).

With the map above it's 129 Electoral votes to Harrison, 123 Van Buren, with New York's 42 electoral votes holding the balance. That's assuming Harrison is butchered down south. But look at how close this is. If Harrison can snag a few other state equaling 20, he doesn't need New York. The question is which is more believable, a Harrison lead Whig ticket gaining New York, or a Harrison only ticket getting a few more states out west and down south?

Even in 1840, with Van Buren a very unpopular president, and many conservative Democrats in New York (like Senator Nathaniel Tallmadge) and elsewhere having deserted him because of the independent treasury issue, he only lost New York to Harrison narrowly (51.18-48.18). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1840 I think it very unlikely that Harrison could defeat Van Buren in the latter's home state in 1836.
 
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