Will the USA gain anything from a war with Mexico in the 1910s?

Its also possible that the US doesn't "win" in such an overwhelming victory. It does depend on when this hypothetical invasion happens, but one likely outcome is consolidating the various revolutionary forces around the government somewhat anyways; that is assuming they don't attack during one of the consolidation periods. One also must factor in the size of Mexico and its environment. One could easily drag that conflict out for years through guerrilla warfare; which the Mexicans at this time have experience in a plenty. Yes, the US could win in the end but it would be a phyric victory and probably more of a stalemate.

the US would probably look to set up some sort of friendly government though. Remember it wasn't until the 1920s that they recognized the government of Mexico as Legitement IIRC.

I doubt the US carves out two satellite Republics from Mexico.

Annexing the border bits where US-owned/invested mines are + the more or less empty baja california is a different matter entirely. There were only some 55,000 people in the whole baja peninsula at the time. I can't see there being more than 80,000 people in all the territories the US would grab here.

The above is why I'd argue the below is bunk and propose the "allowing" (Not carving out; merely letting the local power brokers break off/get so much autonomy that they effectively can act as though they were independent states) new states to form in the North. A war with the regieme in Mexico City is going to be against Diaz, Huerta, or MAYBE Zapasta... while the northern provinces are effectively not Federal but under the control of the generally more US leaning and historical backed Villa and Carenza. Considering the former's penchant for seizing personal power and the effective monopoly he had on force in the main areas of US commercial interest, and the need to keep ideologies seperated in order to handle the delicate balancing act of stablizing the nation and insuring Europe was happy order was being kept and their vital commercial interests (Like Britain's oil wells) were being protected so they wouldn't feel tempted to intervene and create a crisis around the Monroe Doctrine. Supplying arms to the northern rebels and having them do the actual fighting and dying as US allies (Similar to the LL relations with the Soviets in WW II) seems like the most likely and least politically controversial outcome given the weakness of America's convention armed forces at the time, and Villa would likely be rewarded by being allowed to have an effective if not formal fiefdom in the north.
 
The above is why I'd argue the below is bunk and propose the "allowing" (Not carving out; merely letting the local power brokers break off/get so much autonomy that they effectively can act as though they were independent states) new states to form in the North. A war with the regieme in Mexico City is going to be against Diaz, Huerta, or MAYBE Zapasta... while the northern provinces are effectively not Federal but under the control of the generally more US leaning and historical backed Villa and Carenza. Considering the former's penchant for seizing personal power and the effective monopoly he had on force in the main areas of US commercial interest, and the need to keep ideologies seperated in order to handle the delicate balancing act of stablizing the nation and insuring Europe was happy order was being kept and their vital commercial interests (Like Britain's oil wells) were being protected so they wouldn't feel tempted to intervene and create a crisis around the Monroe Doctrine. Supplying arms to the northern rebels and having them do the actual fighting and dying as US allies (Similar to the LL relations with the Soviets in WW II) seems like the most likely and least politically controversial outcome given the weakness of America's convention armed forces at the time, and Villa would likely be rewarded by being allowed to have an effective if not formal fiefdom in the north.
But the troops of northern warlords crossing the border and causing a ruckus are by far the most likely catalyst to dragging the US into the war. Even if they were favoring them beforehand, they won't be after.
 
July, 1914: Oskar Potiorek is assassinated along with Austrian Crown Prince Franz Ferdinand. William McAdoo dies in an an automobile accident.

August, 1914: Without McAdoo's decisive move to stabilize the NYSE, the Anglo-French liquidate their financial holdings in the United States and collapse the American economy as a result by depleting the gold backing of the Dollar; the United States is thrown into an economic depression as a result. In Europe, without Potiorek, Hermann Kövess is placed in charge of the Austro-Hungarian invasion of Serbia. In France, the French 5th Army is encircled and destroyed by the Germans, followed shortly thereafter by the British Expeditionary Force. French defenses collapse along their front as they are forced to pull back in an effort to restore their lines, effectively surrendering Northern France, including the vital Channel Ports and Bethune Coal Mines.

November, 1914: Shell shortages and an effective Austrian advance results in the surrender of Serbia, with France soon following as she is unable to maintain the production necessary to carry her war effort while the United Kingdom has yet to assemble a replacement for Sir John French's destroyed BEF. Russia and Britain are compelled to follow over the coming months, along with the various other minor powers.

February, 1915: Outbreak of Second Indian Mutiny.

April, 1915: Obregon's forces exhaust their ammunition supply and are thus subsequently forced out of their defenses where Pancho Villa's more mobile forces are able to devastate them, allowing Villa to seize Mexico City in the aftermath.

1915 General: The quick victory of the Central Powers in the "War of 1914" has engendered political change throughout Europe. In Russia, the Tsar was forced to abdicate in favor of his brother, who is forced to make concessions towards making Russia a Constitutional Monarchy while the destruction of the BEF and Second Mutiny have rocked Britain to the core. More importantly is various revolts throughout the year, predominantly of a Socialist character but also the emergence of some Monarchical leaning factions as a result of the disgrace of the Third Republic as a result of their loss to the Germans. Said Socialist Revolts, along with the events in Mexico, lead to greater disturbances in the United States, where labor forces and Left-wing groups have begun agitating amidst the severe economic troubles.

1916: Outbreak of severe street fighting and rolling strikes leads to the cancellation of the 1916 elections in the United States as President Wilson institutes Martial Law throughout the United States with the support of the military. This results in a general uprising by Socialists, reminiscent of the 1877 Railway Strikes but more widespread and powerful; the "Second American Civil War", as it becomes informally termed, lasts for the Summer and into the Fall, when a combination of the U.S. Military and lack of food force an end to the revolts. Many Leftists flee to Mexico in the aftermath, where they are sheltered by the Villa Government, given that the U.S. is currently too focused on rebuilding and mop up to do much at the moment. The rapid expansion of the American military as a result of the Revolts, which continues as a precaution, saw vast numbers of Rightists enter or be created as a result of their experience in fighting Socialist elements; in another timeline, this would be very similar to the experience of ex-German soldiers fighting in the Freikorps. This, combined with their months long experience in effectively running the nation, have a major impact on thinking within the U.S. Military over the next few years.

1916-1918: Efforts to restore Democracy largely fall flat, particularly after President's Wilson incapacitating heart-attack in 1917. Slow recovery from the continued economic malaise continues to sow discord, and the formation of Ultra-Rightist sects with the U.S. Military begin to emerge until finally a cabal of officers led by a Colonel named Douglas MacArthur stage a coup against the hapless Wilson in 1918; the institution of a Military regime practicing National Syndicalism follows.

1919: Significant anger within the American public, but especially within the Ultra-Nationalist elements of the Military led by MacArthur, has existed towards Mexico since the Villa regime accepted the Leftist exiles following their failed uprising in 1916. That the Villa regime itself is very similar to the systems said uprising propagated further reduces the validity of Mexico within the American view, but the new National Syndicalist rule of the United States sees more to Mexico than just getting petty revenge; the concept of Mexico as a living space for America's masses and as a result as a natural zone of expansion for the United States has emerged. Such is gleefully supported by MacArthur, who agrees with all of this and has been using such to help further the buildup of the American military.

In September of 1919, an ultimatum is delivered to the Villa Government in Mexico City. Either they surrender the American Leftists, who reside with the acquiescence of the new Mexican Government, along with numerous completely unacceptable economic and political concessions and reforms, or its war. As expected, Villa could never agree to such terms and American forces soon cross the border in mass with the goal of complete annexation.
 
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